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Market Commentary ETC has been on quite a run recently as favorable technicals combined with improving fundamentals encouraged investors to take another look at the Ethereum offshoot. While we have been generally bullish on this coin for quite some time, hence why we continue to own it, it has been a long and frustrating wait for meaningful upside. Now that we seem to have a confirmed bottom at [members-only text] bulls feel free to market buy coins near multi-month highs, although we know that this euphoria is most often a sign of at least a near term top. To confirm whether or not this is the case, we take a look at the 12-hour chart below. We can see that the rally has been, and continues to be, strong considering SCMR is painting [members-only text] while new, and very strong, dynamic support builds around the [members-only text] level. Additionally, the A/D line is starting to tick up, trading volumes are generally bullish, and market structure remains favorable. From a longer term perspective, these indications seem to be pointing to [members-only text] over the coming months, however there are other signs that have us more cautious from a shorter term perspective. Notice that momentum leaves much to be desired given Willy is officially overbought, the Stochastic is getting close to 80, RSI and MACD are showing bearish divergences, and PPO is still flashing strong sell signals. Additionally, there is fairly heavy resistance overhead in the form of the [members-only text] area as well as the 200-period SMA around 150, and there remains a large volume profile notch down around the [members-only text] area that could use some filling in. While there is the possibility of a final extension up into the medium term OTE short zone between [members-only text], we think this rally is close to coming to an end. The main reason for our current skepticism is that it looks to us like the market is very close to completing a textbook Wyckoff sell model on overbought conditions. This makes at least a corrective selloff increasingly likely, however we would still be [members-only text] in order to [members-only text]. ETC ProTrade Ideas: 1). **Short term [ENTERED @ 104; CLOSED @ 130 for +25% PROFIT]**: We have closed out LONG position off of the 104 level at the intended target of 130 for +25% profit in less than two weeks. 2.) **Medium Term [UPDATED on 12/19/2016]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around the [members-only text] level and a target of [members-only text]. 3.) **Long Term [ACTIVE; ENTERED @ [members-only text]**: We stay LONG off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text]. We will add in the [members-only text] area. **Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday. To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**  Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor. Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication. We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment. Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at BullBearAnalytics.com.
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Market Commentary: The kickback from an incredibly oversold market earlier this week continues as late shorts continue to get squeezed which has driven price well above 100. Now we are getting back into an area of historical resistance which could prove difficult to penetrate without actual new demand coming into the market. This may be possible considering there is a new altcoin hedge fund that was just publicly announced, although we doubt $10 million is enough to sustainably move a market as big as ETH. For the time being we continue to rely on the technicals for guidance as to directionality and timing considering has been very profitable to do so recently. We can see on the 6-hour chart below that the current countertrend bounce has been fairly impressive, however so far all it has been able to do is get price back within the descending channel that it has been in for the past month plus. Also notice that despite what are [members-only text] SCMR candles, there is still not much in the way of [members-only text] and price is already being rejected at the bottom of the lower [members-only text] zone. Additionally, volume profile remains porous below the market, the A/D line continues to give back the rally gains, and exchange volumes are [members-only text]. Throw in the fact that Willy and the Stochastic are back in overbought territory, RSI is still stuck in no mans land, and PPO is flashing strong sell signals, and we think at least a retest of [members-only text] is in order prior to another leg higher which could break price out of the downtrend channel. Generally speaking we are still not fans of this market on any timeframe, especially following the close of what was a very profitable long trade over the course of this week (up 40.13%!). Having said that, there could be some opportunities presented us as traders in the not too distant future if bitcoin can crank up the volatility machine, hopefully to the upside. Regardless, we will be ready and waiting on both sides of the market. ETH ProTrade Ideas: 1). **Very Short term**: No new ProTrades at this time considering poor risk/reward profiles on both sides of the market. (b). **[ENTERED @ 78 on 12/6/2016; CLOSED @ 110 on 12/8/2016 for 41.03% PROFIT]**: We will have closed the LONG position off of the 78 level at the intended target of 110 for 41.03% profit in three days. 2.) **Medium Term [UPDATED on 12/9/2016]**: We will consider a SHORT position on a rally up to the [members-only text] area with a stop around the [members-only text] level and a target of [members-only text]. 3.) **Long Term [UPDATED on 12/9/2016]**: We will consider a LONG position on a pullback to the [members-only text] area with a stop around the [members-only text] level and a target of [members-only text]. **Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday. To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**  Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor. Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication. We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment. Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at BullBearAnalytics.com.
Market Commentary: As usual, we will refrain from making judgements about the fundamentals of Ether given the controversy continues to run high following months of hard forks. Therefore, we jump straight into the technical action by taking a look at the 3-day and 6-hour charts for a nice mix of medium and short term perspectives. We start with the 3-day which continues to show a steady bleed lower despite what should be rather encouraging signs. While the momentum indicators can't possibly get much more oversold, SCMR continues to paint both [members-only text] and new [members-only text]. Another should-be positive signal is the fact that it looks like we will get another hammer candle when this one paints, although that happened last week as well and price continued lower anyway. Finally, while volume profile and the A/D line remain bullish, actual exchange volumes are still confirming the bear market even if they are relatively low. Generally speaking, we still don't see a legitimate technical reason to try to catch this falling knife even though it may be tempting to do so from a risk/reward perspective, which is why we need to take a look at the 6-hour chart for short term granularity. The downtrend off of the 160 spike highs remains intact and SCMR has yet to [members-only text], both of which clearly mean that we still don't have a [members-only text] yet. What we do have is a series of choppy red and blue candles with some bearish pivots thrown in, but again no indication that a reversal has occurred just yet. Additionally, Willy and RSI are no longer oversold, the Stochastic looks ready to roll over again in no man's land, and the A/D line continues to head lower on this timeframe. While PPO is still flashing buy signals and price is below the volume profile value area, the market continues to struggle to get any juice to the upside at all. This is likely a combination of negative fundamental and technical influences. Even though we are not ready to say that a bottom is in for a multitude of reasons, we do think there is a decent chance at a [members-only text]. Considering we have a [members-only text] to shoot against and a [members-only text] that has a potential 2:1 risk/reward profile, we are willing to take a small shot around [members-only text]. ETH ProTrade Ideas: 1). **Short term [PREVIOUS CLOSED @ STOP LEVEL]**: We were stopped out of our [members-only text] position at the [members-only text] stop level for a -2.38% loss. (b). **[UPDATED on 12/1/2016]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position on a pullback to the [members-only text] area with a stop around the [members-only text] level and a target of [members-only text]. 2.) **Medium Term [UPDATED on 12/1/2016]**: We will consider a SHORT position on a pullback to the [members-only text] area with a stop around the [members-only text] level and a target of [members-only text]. 3.) **Long Term [ACTIVE; ENTERED @ 0.00595 on 10/29/2016]**: We will consider a LONG position on a pullback to the [members-only text] area with a stop around the [members-only text] level and a target of [members-only text]. **Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday. To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**   Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor. Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication. We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment. Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at BullBearAnalytics.com.
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