Tag Archive

Originally published in the BullBear Analytics Weekly Report released on 1/28/2014.  Partial excerpt only. Written by @AKWAnalytics. As much as many readers will be displeased to hear that there is still substanial near term risk to the downside, take solace in the notion that there appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel, just now barely peeking through the darkness. Patience. Bear markets are tough, especially ones that are not subject to the whims of central bankers, yet are subject to the full range of human emotions and our good ole friend ‘supply and demand’. A commodity market …

Originally published in the BullBear Analytics Weekly Report released on 1/21/2014.  Partial excerpt only. Written by @AKWAnalytics. We will leave the price talk to the analytical sections below because this week we want to discuss a pressing and existentially important issue facing bitcoin at the present time.  Few are aware of this potential crisis, which is why we are highlighting it here. First, let us start by saying that this is in no way meant to induce panic, or any other emotion for that matter.  We simply want to inform our readers.  So what’s going on? What is now being referred …

Originally published in the BullBear Analytics Weekly Report released on 1/2/2015.  Partial excerpt only. Written by @AKWAnalytics. Bitcoin 2014 was a year of beneath the surface progress that had little impact on people’s willingness to buy and/or hold bitcoins. Additionally, we saw a large influx of new merchants accepting and coverting bitcoin, and miners being able to ubiquitously use ASIC’s for the first time in bitcoin’s histoy. The relatively stable demand picture combined with the increasing in supply created a glut in 2014 that put pressure on prices throughout the year. While we do not expect much more downside in price …

Originally published in the BullBear Analytics Weekly Report released on 12/18/2014.  Partial excerpt only. Written by @AKWAnalytics. Bitcoin has had one of its roughest weeks in quite some time as global macro events have finally bled into the price action.  While catching falling knives is not what we specialize in, we do think at least a short term respite is coming as the new year approaches. There is no doubt that bitcoin is currently in the doldrums of international financial instruments, espcecially if you were to judge progress solely by the barrage of negative press coverage this week.  We have seen …

Originally published in the BullBear Analytics Weekly Report released on 12/3/2014.  Partial excerpt only. Written by @AKWAnalytics. As we all know by now, the USMS will be auctioning off another 50,000 bitcoins that were acqured by the US government in the Silk Road bust last year. While the initial announcement spooked the market momentarily, it seems that traders are taking a “wait and see” approach.  In our opinion, the growth in the maturity of the bitcoin market is impressive and is exemplified by the muted reaction leading up to what would seem to be a seminal event (auction). This apparent evolution …

Originally published in the BullBear Analytics Weekly Report released on 11/19/2014.  Partial excerpt only. Written by @AKWAnalytics. The consolidation around key support levels continues as traders attempt to wade through the chop that has plagued the market for the past week. The parabolic rally up to 450 $ certainly spooked the bears, and the subsequent washout did no favors for the bulls. As we outline in the full BullBear Analytics Weekly Report, we are not ready to jump back into trading this market just yet as the technicals remain too mixed. However, unless key support levels at 334 $ and 320 …

Originally published in the BullBear Analytics Weekly Report released on 11/14/2014.  Partial excerpt only. Written by @AKWAnalytics. Just as a flurry of noted tech journalists have come out predicting the demise of bitcoin (for the millionth time), BTC decides to make them look silly by rallying 120 $ in five days! This is why they are working as journalists, and not killing it in the markets. While it is too early to call a definitive bottom, we do think the bulls will rally into year end. This is not to say that prices can’t have violent moves to the downside(see the …

Originally published in a Bitcoin BullBear Market Update on 11/5/2014.  Partial excerpt only. Written by @AKWAnalytics. By far the most interesting development in the bitcoin complex in our opinion is the apparent decoupling from gold and silver.  Over the past few months, BTC has been treated as a hard commodity by the investment community as the US dollar has strengthened. Makes sense, right? Well, not so fast.  While it makes sense that bitcoin should be treated as a commodity given the limited supply, that is not nearly the whole story.  And while It also makes sense that if the dollar is getting …

Originally published in a Bitcoin BullBear Market Update on 10/29/2014.  Partial excerpt only. Written by @AKWAnalytics. The past week in Bitcoinland has been entirely uneventful from both a news and price perspective. 350 $ was obviously the big number to watch as traders see-sawed price slightly above and below there. Now that it has been broken in earnest, we see further downside into the OTE. While the longer term charts continue to hold up pretty well in the face of all of this selling pressure, the shorter term ones are saying that some additional work needs to be done on the downside.  …

Originally published in a Bitcoin BullBear Market Update on 10/22/2014.  Partial excerpt only. Written by @AKWAnalytics. Bitcoin has been trapped between 349 $ and 397 $ for weeks as market participants grapple with an unresolved bottom at 275 $ in a medium term bear market.  There are many similarities between Summer ‘13 and now, however the technicals must confirm this instinct. We stated last week that the current rally off of the 275 $ low was reminiscent of the action in the Spring of this year that took prices up to 683 $.  The more we watch the price action,  the more …