Is Bitcoin Alive or Undead?
Jun 18, 2015 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
IT’S ALIVE! IT’S ALIVE!!!! After months of listless, range bound price action and downright ugly sentiment both technically and fundamentally, it appears as though bitcoin is almost ready to be brought back to life...
Now, whether that life takes the form of a rally continuation up to key resistance levels (resurrection) or it materializes as an opportunity to sell coins at the top of the still intact trading range between 210 and 260 $ (zombie), remains to be seen. However, the longer term charts are saying that a bigger move is on its way, and perhaps it will be to the upside. For now, though, the 200day MA and intermediate term OTE short zone will act as resistance at the new 259.10 $ local high.
With that in mind, and before folks run out and mortgage the house to margin buy coins, we think that the pause we are currently seeing could have more room to the downside as the large gains by the bulls over the past few days are consolidated. If the market can slide lower to the 240 $ area (50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent move) and hold there, then we think 262 $ has a realistic shot at being taken out and we head higher. On the other hand, if 240 $ does not hold on the selloff, then a retest of 230 $ would be in the cards.
The final scenario is that Greece leaves the Euro over the weekend, or at least implements capital controls, and bitcoin prices skyrocket to the 300 $ heavy resistance area. While we do not think this is likely, we do think it is possible (~30% prob).
Given the number of possible impactful events regarding bitcoin’s price that are coming over the weekend, and the uncertainty which is present globally over Greece, we want to remain neutral and keep our powder dry for the real move, whether that be up or down.