Bitcoin Price Report for March 17, 2017
Mar 17, 2017 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
We are looking forward to the end of this week seeing as though it has been pretty brutal for long-biased traders such as ourselves. Not that we can complain about booking a 20+% profit on the medium term trade yesterday, which materialized in less than a week, but the past few days have been rough as the market has clawed a small, yet noticeable, portion of our winnings from the ETF dip trade. Now that we are back to [members-only text] on all timeframes other than long term, we can be patient and wait for the market to settle into a more defined range. As we mentioned earlier in the week, we now think there is a fairly good chance of entering the first extended consolidation of 2017 as the market tries to price in what will likely be an absence of an ETF product this year, a prolonging of the scaling debate, and a global macro environment that could see rising rates for the foreseeable future. While we generally remain [members-only text] over the longer term, we warrant caution on both sides of the market for the time being considering the state of the technicals we will now discuss below.
We return to the 6-hour chart today for a slightly broader view of the short to medium term outlook. We can see that indeed a market structure top was put in above 1200 $, which is where [members-only text] is now painting, and which also led to the selloff and subsequent breakdown below the EMA's, the 50 SMA, and volume profile PoC. Not only that, but during the London session the market was taken down below 1100 $ briefly which broke the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud, pierced the 200 SMA, and tested the medium term uptrend line, all of which held eventually but are now in question in terms of sustainability. On the other hand, price is coming down into a VP notch area which needs to be filled, price was rejected by the upper OTE long zone (pretty much at the 61.8% Fib), and momentum is getting close to the point where it could bounce (and is). Additionally, the A/D line is actually ticking higher now and we do have a bullish volume divergence that could signal that bears are running out of steam already over the near term. Despite the fact that there are some signs emerging [members-only text] may be in the cards over the weekend, which may be starting to play out right now, we think there are simply too many mixed technical signals right now to be confident in a move back to the [members-only text] in the very near future.
The daily chart seems to be confirming our suspicion that an extended sideways consolidation may be the best way to recharge the technicals while maintaining a longer term bullish bias. We can see below that yesterday's SCMR candle ended up being [members-only text] but did [members-only text], and now we are getting a [members-only text] that has also been flashing [members-only text] throughout the morning. Additionally, momentum is not yet fully recharged seeing as though Willy and the Stochastic are both still hovering close to overbought territory, and we still have some room to run to the downside prior to getting back into the meat of the volume profile setup. Conversely, price is currently finding support in the [members-only text] zone and bottom part of the upper demand area, the Ichimoku Cloud remains bullish (as does the T/K cross), and the A/D line is still steady which tells us that the selling has not been as intense as perceived. While we think that the market could tread water around current levels for bit, perhaps through the weekend, we also think there is a pretty good chance that the market heads [members-only text] over the coming week/s in order to test the light blue demand area, the Ichimoku Cloud and OTE zone tops, the upper trendline, historical dynamic support, and the ETF spike lows which all sit in the [members-only text] area depending on when we get there. We would be [members-only text] of that area if given the opportunity.
All thing considered, we think that the current rally up to the 1150 $ area is simply a near term oversold countertrend bounce back to the upside prior to a flatline around these levels or retest of the [members-only text]. We do not think that the clean-up period is complete by any stretch, which means we are likely in for choppy conditions over the next few weeks (at least). For now we are expecting a [members-only text] formation to materialize as the consolidation plays out, with an eventual resolution to the [members-only text], which implies a "buy the dips, sell the rips" mentality until that occurs. That said, most traders, including us, will remain [members-only text]l until things become a bit more clear regarding where we might be headed over the short to medium term, so range scalping might be the way to go for those who want to continue playing despite the choppy environment.
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Posted ProTrade Ideas:
1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 3/13/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
2b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [ENTERED on 3/16/2017; CLOSED on 3/17/2017]**: We were stopped out of our position off of the [members-only text] level at [members-only text]. No new ST trades at this time.
3a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [ISSUED on 3/17/2017]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
3b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 3/17/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 3/17/2017]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].