Bitcoin Price Prediction for June 6, 2016

Market Commentary:

We are now within about four weeks of the halving, which should add both bullish and bearish pressure to the market over the next few months.  Despite the fact that we think the event will be a positive thing for the market overall, we also expect volatility to pick up as well.

Obviously a halving of the daily inflation rate will put upward pressure on the market even if demand remains stagnant at current levels.  In order for businesses and consumers to maintain their current level of bitcoin activity price will have to necessarily go up, all else being equal. If, on the other hand, demand increases incrementally from now until the beginning of next month, then there is the possibility of supply/demand inbalances and thus a market repricing higher much like we saw in early 2013.

Conversely, due to the relatively large size of the bitcoin markets in comparison to 2012 - 2013 timeframe, there is also the chance of a pullback just after the halving.  Miners may be hoarding coins right now in order to sell them post-halving for an inflated price, as well as to cover any unexpected costs that may arise following the halving of their daily revenues.  This rush to sell these hoarded coins could drive price down temporarily causing some panic, however we think this will be a buyable correction due to the longer term technical strength.

Once we get through the summer, likely the August - September time period, then we will have a much better idea of the new supply and demand dynamics of the market, as well as the new economics of the mining game.  While we think we will be seeing substantially higher prices at some point this year, even possibly above the ATH’s, we also think that volatility will be much more substantial than we have seen the past few years.

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