Bitcoin Price Report for June 28th, 2017

Market Commentary

Following what was a horrific start to this final week of June, the bitcoin markets over the past 12 hours have been surprisingly resilient in the face of what are very confusing technicals on multiple timeframes. In our analysis through the end of the week we will show that the longer term charts are now starting to [members-only text], although the shorter term charts are looking much better than they did earlier in the week.

Additionally, we still don't have anymore clarity on the fundamentals (SegWit) than we did yesterday, which remains a hindrance to the market over the coming weeks, and trader senitment has quickly shifted back to bullish (perhaps only temporarily though). While we are not ruling out the possibility of a resumption of the bull market uptrend soon given there is a bullish fractal forming that looks very similar to the one that formed during the correction in May, due to the uncertain technicals and fundamentals we are [members-only text] for the time being.

6-Hour Chart

The 6-hour chart below continues to show very mixed signals considering SCMR went [members-only text] following a series of [members-only text], but is already now back to [members-only text]for the time being. Also note that price is currently in a congestion zone via the choppy EMA's, the indecisive 50 SMA, and the top of the Ichimoku Cloud (which is still painting a bearish Kumo twist out in front of the market). We can also see that triangle trendline resistance and the [members-only text] zone both sit just above [members-only text], so perhaps that is a reasonable target for what we still think is a countertrend bounce within a larger consolidation. On the other hand, buyers were eager to step in once again in the upper demand area, near the top of the [members-only text]zone, and around the 200 SMA, which tells us that the general bias remains [members-only text] for now, however we are skeptical as to how much further it can go from here before retesting lower levels again.

Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that the momentum oscillators are coming off of oversold conditions with plenty of room to run to the upside if centerlines can be broken, while MACD has already moved above its zeroline following a small bullish divergence which confirmed yesterday. Additionally, buyers appear to be holding firm as per the A/D line, although exchange volumes have been favoring the bears as of late. If nothing else, we think the market continues to [members-only text] while longer term conditions continue to undergo a much needed recharge, however if forced to choose near term bias we would have to say it remains [members-only text] for now.

Daily Chart

We return to the daily chart today before taking a look at some longer term charts going into the end of the week, and we can see that the head and shoulders pattern we discussed yesterday has not yet confirmed below [members-only text]. Having said that, not only is said H&S pattern still intact as long as price stays below the regional high and dynamic resistance level at [members-only text], but there could be another even smaller H&S forming inside of this rather odd right shoulder we have materializing (which would be another [members-only text]). On the other hand, the upper trendline and 50 SMA both held as support during the spikes lower over the past few days, SCMR is trying to paint [members-only text] right now, and the Ichimoku Cloud continues to confirm the bull market. 

As far as momentum and volume are concerned, notice that the momentum oscillators have come down from overbought territory a bit, but still have plenty of room to run to the downside before being properly recharged, the EMA's have flatlined and are currently acting as resistance (a sign of indecision), and volume profile remains very thin all the way down to the [members-only text] area. While we are not expecting a move down that low at this time, it remains a definite possibility over the next month or so so we must keep it in mind. All things considered, we would be surprised if price could get much above the [members-only text] level without another retest to the downside, which is why we continue to stay patient in our buy zones for the market to come to us.