Bitcoin Price Report for June 23rd, 2017

Market Commentary

​Surprisingly there hasn't been much action as a result of futures settlements so far this morning, although the muted response may be due to the bigger quarterlies expiration next Friday which should have more of an impact. With that in mind, we think the market could remain relatively flat through the weekend and early part of next week, especially if the SegWit news vacuum persists as it has for the past few days.

Additionally, the technicals are still mixed on the short to medium term charts, as they are on the longer term charts such as the 3-day we will take a look at today, all of which increases the likelihood of [members-only text] over the coming days. That said, overall the bias continues to be [members-only text] in our opinion, so if there is a breakout we expect [members-only text].

6-Hour Chart

One last look at the 6-hour chart this week given it remains our favorite view of the short term setup. We can see that price is still treading water in the [members-only text] zone on what remain [members-only text] candles, [members-only text], although there appears to the be a market structure double top trying to come in around 2750 $ (which is also where volume profile PoC is) which would likely put a stop to the still active inverse head and shoulders pattern we have working. Also note that the larger ascending triangle remains intact, the Ichimoku Cloud continues to stay bullish, and dynamic resistance is [members-only text], all encouraging indications at this time.

Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that Willy and the Stochastic are still overbought, while RSI, MACD, and PPO all remain neutral. Also note that the EMA's are steadily creeping higher, we are still above the 50 SMA (although it is heading down for the time being), and the 200 SMA continues to be supportive of the longer term bull market. Additionally, despite the fact that exchange volumes are dwindling, the A/D line continues to move to the upside while volume profile is filling in nicely above [members-only text]. While we cannot rule out a weekend retracement back down to the [members-only text] to test [members-only text], we would be buyers of that move and think it would recharge the market for [members-only text].

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3-Day Chart

As promised, we are turning to the 3-day chart today as we head into what should be a rather benign weekend trading environment. We can see that earlier this month we did indeed get a [members-only text] candle to paint, although now we are already back to [members-only text]following the hammer rejection out of the upper demand area. Notice that this created new dynamic support at [members-only text], the first of its kind since the breakout above the 2013 ATH's earlier this year, which should be encouraging to longer term bulls. Additionally, market structure remains fairly bullish, the moving averages all continue to move higher, the Ichimoku Cloud is still supportive and rising, and all trendlines remain intact. That said, overhead resistance in the form of the ATH supply area, as well as current resistance via the [members-only text] zone, on a 6-hour double top is not great so we are staying cautious for the time being.

As far as momentum and volume are concerned, Willy, the Stochastic, and PPO are still pinned in overbought territory while RSI continues to paint a nasty bearish divergnce, however MACD looks healthy so it is tough to tell whether these conditions are signaling strength or exhaustion. In light of the fact that the A/D line is still accelerating to the upside, indicating that [members-only text], we will err of the side of strength, especially since this has been the right call all year. While we would welcome a pullback into the [members-only text], or even the [members-only text] to test the upper trendline, to recharge momentum and give us a chance to hop back into a medium or long term trade, we are not counting on it given the relative strength we have seen in price action this week in the face of what should have been a bad week technically speaking. We will continue to [members-only text] until the market tells us we are mistaken.

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