Bitcoin Price Report for June 19th, 2017
Jun 19, 2017 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
Market Commentary
Despite a slight bullish bias within a range bound market over the weekend, it seems as though neutrality was the right call given price action was sporadic and unfavorable (at least from a risk/reward perspective). Now as we enter the third week of June price seems to be acting much like it has over the past few days, albeit with perhaps a bit more upside bias than before.
That said, the technicals are continuing to show mixed signals on the short to medium term charts indicating that price may need a bit more time to consolidate prior to an attempt to breakout to [members-only text]. On the other hand, we are getting more and more clarity on SegWit, which looks like it might activate prior to August 1st, so this could very well keep a steady bid under the market for the foreseeable future. While we are not ready to call it a sure thing, we think it is increasingly likely and therefore will be supportive of higher prices over the summer months.
6-Hour Chart
We start out this week with a look at the 6-hour chart once again as there remain some contradictory signals over the near term. Notice that price has flatlined within the upper demand area and still bullish Ichimoku Cloud on what are [members-only text] candles (following a [members-only text] early yesterday), all while relatively strong dynamic resistance continues to build at [members-only text]. Also note that market structure is neutral, as are the EMA's, while price remains pinned between the 50 and 200 SMA's (a sign of [members-only text]). Finally, note that we see what could be an inverse head and shoulders pattern currently forming, as long as price remains above volume profile PoC, so we will be watching that [members-only text] area closely.
Moving on to momentum and volume, we can see that the momentum oscillators are sending conflicting signals with Willy and the Stochastic getting awfully close to officially overbought territory, if not already there, while RSI, MACD, and PPO are all still [members-only text]. Also notice that exchange volumes are waning, the A/D line remains healthy, and volume profile looks pretty good, so as long as momentum can recharge over the near term without a significant breakdown we think there is a decent chance of [members-only text] over the course of this week. If not, we will be [members-only text].
Daily Chart
Back to the daily chart for the medium term outlook in which we can see that things are fairly mixed on this timeframe as well, although there are some interesting indications worth noting. First of all, note that SCMR is painting [members-only text], but this time following a [members-only text]which has sent the market back into sideways mode. Additionally, price is currently struggling to get back above the still minorly bullish EMA's on [members-only text], although the longer term SMA's and the Ichimoku Cloud are still bullish. Finally, it looks like another ascending triangle is trying to form, a pattern that has been extremely popular amongst the altcoins recently and which has been a fairly reliable bullish formation since they started emerging a few weeks ago. As long as the triangle trendline and 50 SMA can hold on dips, this remains a [members-only text] that likely [members-only text].
As far as momentum and volume are concerned, things actually look better on this timeframe than they do on the 6-hour chart above considering all of the oscillators are now well below overbought territory and are actually close to fully recharged, even PPO. All this while the A/D line continues to accelerate to the upside signaling [members-only text] at current levels. While we think the likelihood of a breakout to new ATH's over the next few days is slim, we do think that [members-only text] after the shorter term technicals are cleaned up. We are hoping for a pullback into the near term [members-only text] zone, but if not we will be ready to [members-only text] when/if it materializes.
Market Summary
As we were watching the charts and price action over the weekend we couldn't help but think how similar this current period for BTC looks and feels to the ETHBTC rally from early May of this year, which felt eerily like a top but was actually just the final washout prior to the true bulk of the gains. While we are not necessarily expecting a move of that magnitude for bitcoin over the coming weeks, we do think there could be a [members-only text] if SegWit gets locked-in in the not too distant future. Generally speaking, the more likely this outcome appears, the higher price will rally to the upside. The less likely it looks, the more price will stall. Either way, we remain in [members-only text] for the time being in anticipation of [members-only text] soon.
Posted ProTrade Ideas:
1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 6/19/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term UPDATED on 6/19/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
3a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 6/16/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
4a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [UPDATED on 6/15/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
4b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [UPDATED on 6/6/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
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