Bitcoin Price Report for July 5th, 2017
Jul 5, 2017 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
Despite North America having officially returned from the holidays today, traders likely won't get back into the full swing of things until Monday of next week. This should keep liquidity and volume relatively low for the time being, and will also probably contribute to a continuation of the current [members-only text]. Speaking of which, price seems to be stuck in the mid-2500's $ following a breakout above 2600 $ early yesterday, but unfortunately with no follow-through up to [members-only text]. This failure led to a slow selloff back below 2600 $ later in the day which has now morphed into a tight yet choppy range trade between 2530 and 2600 $.
This progression ended up being awfully close to what we predicted to materialize going into last weekend, granted with much less magnitude than expected at that time. Given the technicals we will discuss below, as well as the still uncertain near term fundamental outlook regarding SegWit, we think that both upside and downside are limited for the time being, implying that the market likely [members-only text] over the remainder of the work week. That said, if we do get a dip back below 2500 $ we would consider [members-only text].
We downshift to the 4-hour chart today for some additional granularity on the shorter term setup. We can see that price broke above the symmetrical triangle earlier in the week which led to a continuation above the 200 SMA on [members-only text] SCMR candles, however we are now back below that key moving average and SCMR painted a [members-only text] yesterday. Adding to the confusion is the rather flat confluence area between 2450 - 2550 $ in the form of the EMA's, the 50 SMA, the very mixed Ichimoku Cloud, the upper demand area, and dynamic support, not to mention [members-only text] zone and triangle apex support sitting at the bottom of that range. All of this is telling us to keep our expectations low for this week, although they are also hinting that the overall bias remains with the bulls for now.
Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that the momentum oscillators are mixed too given Willy is still close to overbought, RSI continues to chop around in no man's land, the Stochastic has recharged to the centerline already, MACD is anemic, and PPO is back to neutral. Additionally, sell volumes are picking up slightly and the A/D line is trying to recover from a slight dip yesterday, however volume profile remains very healthy with more notches above the market than below. All things considered, it appears to us as though price should remain [members-only text] over the near term while the indicators recharge further and [members-only text]. We would [members-only text] if it materializes.
We return to the daily chart for the medium term outlook, and things still look pretty good in terms of more upside later this summer. We can see that price has resolved up and out of the bullish pennant formation, albeit without much fanfare or follow-through, on what are [members-only text]SCMR candles following what remains a [members-only text] signal. The lack of a continuation higher over the past few days was likely due to the [members-only text] zone sitting just above the market, although price is holding up above the EMA's, which look like they are close to crossing back to the upside, quite nicely. Also note that significant support in the form of the still bullish 50 SMA, the upper demand area, and the triangle apex are all sitting above 2400 $, as is the even more important [members-only text] that are now building at [members-only text]. While we still think that the market is likely to move sideways over the next few days, we also still think that the bulls remain control from a longer term perspective.
As far as momentum and volume are concerned, notice that Willy, RSI, and the Stochastic are all chopping around in no man's land while MACD continues to paint an extended bullish divergence and PPO is still flashing weak buy signals. None of this is [members-only text]. Regarding volume, the A/D line remains in a very healthy uptrend despite exchange volumes falling recently (which is to be expected given the holidays), however volume profile still leaves much to be desired below the [members-only text] area. That said, we would be surprised if price could get down that low given current technical conditions, which is why we want to be [members-only text]. If price does get back below [members-only text], however, then perhaps it will be time to refocus on our longer term ProTrade setups.
Overall, we think this week will be relatively tame in terms of price action as both the technicals and the fundamentals are supportive of such an outcome. While the technicals certainly appear to be leaning bullish from a medium to long term perspective, we think the market needs more time to reset prior to a legitimate run at the [members-only text] and [members-only text] resistance regions. This can occur via a sideways consolidation or a larger pullback into more significant support, and as previously mentioned we think the odds favor a consolidation for the time being. Generally speaking, if price can hold above [members-only text] over the course of this week, then next week could be another good one for the bulls.
Posted ProTrade Ideas:
1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 7/5/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 7/5/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 6/28/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
4a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [UPDATED on 6/15/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
4b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [UPDATED on 6/28/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
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