Bitcoin Price Report for July 14th, 2017
Jul 14, 2017 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
Market Commentary
Looks like the bitcoin markets will end this week much like they came in, weak and uncertain. Price has dropped back below the 2300 $ level which has triggered some additional selling into the mid-2200's $, although volumes haven't been all that impressive (yet) and relatively substantial near term support is still sitting above [members-only text] (meaning we still think downside is limited for the time being). That said, we also think that there is a fundamental catalyst for this selloff which is the release of the official btc1 codebase today, already widely considered to be a disaster, so it will be important to keep an eye on the dates listed at the bottom of this article: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/countdown-segwit-these-are-dates-keep-eye/ for potential triggers for even bigger selloffs below what we are currently expecting.
If we can hold support in the [members-only text] area through the weekend, things might start to look better next week, however if not then the [members-only text] region is where we will be watching for the next line of defense. Otherwise, sideways chop remains the name of the game, perhaps a good environment to take a few days off to reflect on the current conditions in the crypto markets.
6-Hour Chart
We return to the 6-hour chart again today as the pullback this morning has changed the near term outlook slightly. We can see that SCMR is now [members-only text] while new dynamic resistance is building around [members-only text], in addition to the other levels that are even more significant. Also note that price is back below both EMA's, all of the moving averages are now heading to the downside, and the Ichimoku Cloud is still bearish. On the other hand, we are in the [members-only text] zone again which has been providing support over the past few weeks, and despite the fact that price has once again wicked below the bottom of the upper demand area, the lower demand area is not far under current prices ([members-only text]). No doubt things are still mixed with a slight bearish bias, but downside is also relatively limited for now in our opinion so we remain in wait-and-see mode.
Moving on to momentum and volume, we can see that the oscillators continue to push slowly into oversold territory on what appear to be a few small bullish divergences for now, while the volume indications continue to support the bull case (surprisingly). Again, mixed technicals and uncertain fundamentals do not make great dancing partners so we are staying on the sidelines for the time being.
Daily Chart
We'll cap off this rough and tumble week with a final look at the daily chart which is looking pretty bad at the moment. Notice that SCMR is trying to paint a [members-only text] bar following a red candle yesterday, while dynamic resistance continues to build overhead on bearish near term market structure. Additionally, the EMA's are stacking to the downside and the 50 SMA continues to roll over, however the upper demand area and still bullish Ichimoku Cloud continue to provide support on dumps which is one of the reasons why we think downside may be limited for the time being.
In terms of momentum and volume, things are much more encouraging than the price action or market structure signals seem to indicate. We can see that Willy and the Stochastic are both very close to officially oversold territory, RSI continues to recharge to the downside, MACD is showing a nice bullish divergence, and PPO is now flashing strong buy signals. On the other hand, exchange volumes are still rather bearish for now and volume profile remains thin, although the A/D line continues to stay elevated showing that buyers are still interested at these levels. Overall, the daily chart appears to be confirming that near term bias does indeed reside with the bears, but also that they have alot of wood to chop in order to get down through the psychologically significant [members-only text] level. More than likely the market continues to chop around generally between [members-only text] $ (or maybe more like [members-only text] if volatility stays low), at least until we get more news regarding SegWit and/or SegWit2x.
Market Summary
As we head into the weekend during what is known as a traditionally slow period for the financial markets (July & August), we think liquidity could be quite low which means that volatilty could potentially get quite high. That said, we would be surprised if price got much below the [members-only text] level without a technical or fundamental catalyst such as a break of that key regional low or an unexpected announcement regarding to btc1. Barring such events we think the market will remain choppy and consolidative, again with [members-only text], one that might present a good risk/reward buying opportunity for a small countertrend play which is why we are leaving the ST ProTrade idea intact for now.
Posted ProTrade Ideas:
1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term**: No VST ProTrades at this time.
2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 7/14/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 7/7/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
4a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [UPDATED on 7/7/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
4b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [UPDATED on 6/28/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text
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