Bitcoin Price Report for July 10th, 2017
Jul 10, 2017 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
Market Commentary
There seem to be a few different factors that are negatively impacting the bitcoin markets today following what was a relatively encouraging weekend in terms of price action. First of all, we think the building uncertainty surrounding bitcoin scaling is creating indecision in the market as the first key dates for SegWit and SegWit2x approach later this week. Second, The bloodbath in the ETH markets is not helping things as this is likely ICO selling, alot of which will end up in fiat even if moving to BTC for the time being. Lastly, and most importantly in our opinion, there is a game of chicken (no pun intended) being played between bulls and bears due to the very mixed nature of the short to medium term technicals. While things could certainly turn around again later this week, we might be headed back to the [members-only text] before another local low can be established.
6-Hour Chart
The 6-hour chart below looks pretty bad for the time being considering SCMR is [members-only text] on [members-only text] market structure following a breakdown back below the triangle. Also note that rather strong dynamic resistance is now building around [members-only text], which is also where all of the relevant moving averages and the bearish Ichimoku Cloud sit (meaning it will be tough to get back above there anytime soon without a catalyst). On the other hand, price is currently in the upper [members-only text] zone, just above the upper demand area, with major trendline support below the market around [members-only text] so we would still be surprised if [members-only text] didn't hold through at least the current selling patch.
Moving on to momentum and volume, we can see that the momentum oscillators are coming back down into oversold territory, although on no noticeable divergences unfortunately, while the volume indications remain healthy for the most part (which is [members-only text]). These mixed conditions do not instill much confidence in directionality over the near term, although we don't yet see anything to be too alarmed about from a longer term perspective.
Daily Chart
The daily chart certainly looks uglier than it did late last week when we felt pretty good about the active ProTrade, which has now thankfully been stopped out at breakeven. Notice that SCMR has gone [members-only text] as price has broken down out of the triangle and back below the 50 SMA, thus catalyzing a new dynamic resistance dot around the now key [members-only text] level. Also note that market structure has turned near term bearish and the EMA's are still heading to the downside. On the other hand, price is testing and holding the lower triangle trendline so far, we are in the upper demand area again, there is a small yet relevant [members-only text] zone just below the market, and the Ichimoku Cloud remains firmly bullish so things may feel worse right now than they actually are.
As far as momentum and volume are concerned on this timeframe, we can see that all of the momentum oscillators other than PPO still have plenty of room to run to the downside, however exchange volumes and the A/D line continue to look healthy from a longer term perspective. No matter how you slice it, it appears as though the likelihood of further downside over the next few days is high, that said we are not ready to abandon our BTFD mentality just yet given that the market remains in a broad consolidation generally speaking (and has been since mid-June). Once another new local low is reached, hopefully in the [members-only text] area, then we can try to catch another bounce before the sideways action sets in once again (likely until SegWit is activated).
Market Summary
It's unfortunate that such a nice trade setup like we going into the weekend was all for naught, however it goes to show just how dangerous this market environment is right now. We would not be at all surprised to see price continue to chop around between [members-only text] until there is more clarity and certainty regarding SegWit and/or a potential hard fork, so that is generally what we are expecting for the foreseeable future. On that note, it is simply too risky from both a fundamental and a technical perspective to be heavily involved in this market right now in our opinion, which is why we are going to be staying on the sidelines until we get another favorable setup with clear signals in a key support area.
Posted ProTrade Ideas:
1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ENTERED on 7/7/2017; CLOSED on 7/10/2017]**: We closed out [members-only text] position off of the [members-only text] level at [members-only text].
2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [NEW; ISSUED on 7/10/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 7/7/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
4a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [UPDATED on 7/7/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
4b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [UPDATED on 6/28/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text]
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