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BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS​

Daily Bitcoin Free Reports and price prediction. Just enough for you to get a taste of what we do.
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Bitcoin Price Report for November 30, 2016

11/30/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

Bitcoin finally made a move out of the 720 - 740 $ range overnight, thus indeed confirming the bullish bias in the market right now.  We think this is mainly due to favorable technicals as opposed to a fundamental catalyst, which is why we would not be surprised to see price languish below [members-only text] once again prior to the real breakout.  While we remain patient in the VST ProTrade for slightly higher levels, we want to protect gains by moving our stop level up a bit.  If the market does enter another short term sideways consolidation we are fairly confident we can jump back in on the long side if we do end up getting washout out.  If not, though, then at least we can remain long in the MT ProTrade which we can ride to substantially higher levels.

Today we show two charts again, but this time around the second one is rather unorthodox.  We will get to that in a minute, but first lets revisit the 12-hour chart for some clarity on the short to medium term outlook.  We can see that the Adam & Eve double bottom remains intact and seems to be confirming the upside bias while the bullish ascending triangle pattern remains intact, not to mention that we now have [members-only text] SCMR candles in addition to new dynamic support at the [members-only text] low.  Also notice that market structure is coming in bullish, price has broken back above the 50-period SMA, and the near term EMA's are about to crossover to the upside.  While things appear to be on track for a move above heavy resistance at [members-only text], we would not be surprised to see a small pullback and consolidation first in order to recharge momentum.

Speaking of momentum, the Stochastic is already overbought, which is one of the main reasons we are expecting a slight test to the downside in the not too distant future, however Willy and RSI still have room to run, MACD is picking up steam following a break above the zeroline, and PPO is flashing neutral signals.  Additionally, bullish volumes are slowly picking up and the A/D line still looks very good, although volume profile could still use some work to the downside, at least back to the[members-only text] area.  As we have been saying for the past several days, [members-only text].

Moving on to the second chart and we can see that it is a bit different.  This chart shows the spread between OKCoin USD spot prices and OKCoin Quarterly futures contracts.  This relationship can often be used as a early indicator of a more powerful rally given spot fiat prices tend to increase rapidly when this "Benchmark" spread is widening out.  Conversely, prices are typically under pressure when this chart is moving to the downside.  In this particular circumstance we can see that the spread is in an ascending triangle pattern, much like spot BTCUSD prices currently are in, which would indicate an eventual resolution [members-only text] of the formation.  Seeing as though we are on the trendline on what has become a beautiful volume profile setup, in addition to a very oversold Stochastic oscillator, we think that we are due for a [members-only text], in the not too distant future.  

All things considered we want to remain steadfast in both of the active ProTrades for the time being, but would also be willing to buy the dip once again in case we do get one more fakeout/washout move lower prior to the sustainable move above resistances at [members-only text].  If the near term dip we are expecting fails to materialize, however, we are ready to stay long in the MT trade and potentially add to it on a breakout above [members-only text].
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ACTIVE; ENTERED @ [members-only text] on 11/28/2016]**:  (a) We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

(b) **[UPDATED on 11/30/2016]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

(c) **[UPDATED on 11/28/2016]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position on a breakout above the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 11/22/2016]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/21/2016]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position on a pullback to the a [members-only text] area.

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/21/2016]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position in the [members-only text] area.
**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for November 23, 2016

11/23/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

As expected, bitcoin has remained in a range over the course of the first half of this week as the Thanksgiving holiday in the US seems to be draining some liquidity, as well as volatility, from the market. Having said that, we would not be surprised to see the price action pick up as we move closer to the weekend considering bitcoin has historically been rather erratic during these year-end holidays.  

Given price is currently in at least a medium term bull market we think that maintaining a bullish bias over the next four to five days is reasonable, however we also want to be ready to buy any potential spikes down into support.  We continue to watch the key areas that have been discussed in the ProTrades for the past several weeks, additionally we are keeping the breakout PT intact in case price starts to gain some steam to the upside above [members-only text] over the next few days.

Seeing as though BBA market coverage will be limited over the next 48 hours due to the Thanksgiving holiday, we want to take a look at the daily chart for a view of the medium term technical setup.  Notice that SCMR is still painting [members-only text] on what has been a series of bullish, hammer-like candles over the past week or so, while dynamic support continues to build between [members-only text].

We can also see that price is currently inside of two ascending triangles created by the 755 $ resistance line and the two upper trendlines that have formed.  While we are reticent to buy dips into support at the[members-only text], we are more than willing to to get long in the confluence area around the [members-only text] area.

Moving on to momentum and volume we can see that Willy and the Stochastic remain pinned in overbought territory, RSI and MACD are still bearishly divergent, and PPO continues to paint weak sell signals.  Typically this environment would be downright bearish for price, however remember that during recent rallies these conditions have been a confirmation of strength rather than a sign of exhaustion. Finally, volume remains bullish as the A/D line continues to move to the upside, trading volumes are confirming the uptrend, and volume profile looks better than it has in awhile.  

Considering there are multiple attractive areas of support below the market going all the way down into the [members-only text], and given that heavy resistance remains in the [members-only text] range we think the odds are slightly in favor of a small pullback over the next few days as opposed to a breakout.  Having said that, we also think downside is limited to the bottom of the current[members-only text] trading range, perhaps down to the [members-only text] level, so ultimately we think the market remains in a relatively broad range as the ascending triangles continue to develop.  

Longer term there is no change to our forecast for substantially higher prices over the coming months which means that buy and hold remains a legitimate and effective strategy, which we can improve by buying opportunistically on selloffs.
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 11/23/2016]**:  (a) We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

(b) **[NEW TRADE UPDATED on 11/23/2016]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position on a breakout above the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 11/22/2016]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/21/2016]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position on a pullback to the a [members-only text] area.

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/21/2016]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position in the [members-only text] area.
**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for November 21, 2016

11/21/2016

0 Comments

 
Market Commentary (BTC):  

Since the release of our report yesterday, the market has bottomed and bounced from the 715 $ area up to the mid-730's $ as traders try to play the rebound in hopes of a breakout above the 755 $ local high in the not too distant future.  While we like where their heads are at in terms of buying weakness, we also think they may be a bit too early considering what has materialized between Core and Unlimited, as well as the medium term technicals which still remain somewhat challenged.  

Having said that, the shorter term charts continue to paint a more bullish picture so we cannot rule out a continuation higher.  Given we are still long in the MT ProTrade off of [members-only text], we are ok with not being in a near term trade for the time being.  Instead, we will stay patient in case the market does come back down into our levels where risk/reward profiles remain much more attractive.

Today we want to revisit the 12-hour chart as it is the most revealing short to medium term chart that we can find.  Notice that we now have a rather unorthodox double top up in the 750 $ area, although its credence is somewhat diminished considering a new marginal high was made on Saturday, and there could be a bigger version of the rising wedge we identified over the weekend developing right now ([members-only text]).  

Additionally, there appears to be a smaller fractal of the pattern from the first week of November in which price went from a local high of 745 $ down to a local low of 670 $, followed by what was volatile chop between those two levels prior to another move to a nominal high.  We would not be surprised to see the same thing play out now, implying a move back up to test the [members-only text] resistance area before heading back down to find another local, and sustainable, low.  

Despite these rather bearish indications, there are still some encouraging signs that give us confidence in our longer term forecast.  Notice that SCMR is now painting a [members-only text] candle following what was a [members-only text] candle (just like the move from early November), and dynamic support continues to build between [members-only text].  Additionally, trading volumes are still confirming the bullish bias despite the selloff yesterday, the A/D line has flattened out somewhat but remains in its uptrend, RSI and MACD are recharged, and all relevant MA's remain bullish.  Despite the fact that Willy and PPO are still relatively overbought, overall the indicators look much better than they did even yesterday.

Not surprisingly there is no change to our medium to long term forecast of significantly higher prices over the coming months, however the shorter term outlook remains much more uncertain considering the technicals are relatively mixed for the time being.  Add to that worries over Core vs. Unlimited and it seems very possible that we see a final leg down to test our VST ProTrade buy zone between [members-only text] at some point soon, although the fractal we previously mentioned is also very possible which would imply a rangy consolidation between [members-only text] prior to the next leg up to test resistance in the 778 $ area.  Either way, we remain ready for what the market throws at us, at least for now.
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 11/21/2016]**:  (a) We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

(b) **[ENTERED @ 732 $; CLOSED @ 744 $ for +1.64% profit]**:  We we have closed our LONG position off of the 732 $ level at 744 $ for +1.64% profit.  No new ProTrades at this time due to poor risk/reward at current levels.

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 11/21/2016]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/21/2016]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position on a pullback to the a [members-only text] area.

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/21/2016]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position in the [members-only text] area.
**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for November 16, 2016

11/16/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

The market has spoken, and the market wants higher prices.  Following a short-lived consolidation in the ~710 - 715 $ range yesterday, a break above the pennant downtrend line in conjunction with another Yuan devaluation sent bitcoin prices skyrocketing up to the 740 - 745 $ resistance area overnight.  Now the market is trying to get its bearings as the buying frenzy subsides, however it appears as though the damage has already been done meaning the bias is now firmly to the upside.  While we would not be surprised to see a small pullback to test the top of the broken trendline prior to a more legitimate breakout over the 745 $ regional highs, we would be buyers of that dip considering the positive technicals and fundamentals remain intact.

Speaking of the technicals, once again we are taking a look at two charts today in order to put the current market move into context on a few different timeframes.  We will start with the 12-hour chart given it is more interesting from a shorter term perspective.  We can clearly see the breakout above the bullish pennant/symmetrical triangle from yesterday on what are once again [members-only text] candles.  We also still have strong support sitting at the [members-only text] low, market structure is undeniably bullish, the EMA's have crossed over to the upside, and the 200-period SMA continues to accelerate higher.  Additionally, momentum looks good considering Willy has plenty of room to run, RSI is confirming the rally, MACD has breached the centerline, and PPO is still flashing buy signals.  Throw in the fact that the A/D line remains in a steady uptrend and exchange volumes are bullish, and we think the stage is set for a continuation higher over the coming weeks.  

Moving on to the daily chart, we can see that the breakout above the bullish pennant formation is very convincing from a price action perspective, but still leaves much to be desired in terms of trading volumes.  Our thinking is that the majority of FOMO volume will enter the market on breaks of the [members-only text] levels, which will then confirm the longer term move to the upside.  Also note that SCMR is [members-only text] once again, and the A/D line has hastened its uptrend. Finally, despite the fact that volume profile could use some more filling in prior to an extension into a new and higher trading range, the technicals seem to be synchronizing across timeframes which indicates pent up bullishness.  

We still could test lower levels in the [members-only text] area, but as time progresses and price stays elevated the chances incrementally diminish.  Having said that, we do think there is a decent chance of a pullback to test the top of the broken pennant in the [members-only text] range so we would use that opportunity to add to the MT ProTrade, which by the way now has an even higher target.  

All things considered, it looks to us like this could be the initial stage of the year end rally we have been calling for since summer.  Fundamentals and technicals continue to align while mainstream skepticism remains high, a recipe for higher prices over the medium term in our opinion.  Again, we will stay [members-only text] and will look to add in the [members-only text].
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 11/16/2016]**:  (a) We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

(b) **[UPDATED on 11/16/2016]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 11/16/2016]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/16/2016]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position on a pullback to the a [members-only text] area.

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/14/2016]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position in the [members-only text] area.
**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
0 Comments

Bitcoin Price Report for November 14, 2016

11/14/2016

0 Comments

 
Market Commentary (BTC):  

It's been a relatively crazy few days for bitcoin considering we were well above 700 $ for the majority of the week last week, but are now sitting just below there following a downside washout into the low 680's $ early Sunday morning.  We think this pullback was caused by a couple of different factors, some fundamental and some technical.  

From a fundamental perspective, we think this move was simply the result of "buy the rumor, sell the news" traders taking profits following the Trump election victory, as well as some pricing in of a more hawkish Federal Reserve (notice what happened to gold last week).

Technically speaking, the market was overextended and divergent up at the 740 - 745 $ resistance area which created perfect conditions for a double top washout.  Now price is pinned just below 700 $, although it has been oscillating on either side of that level over the past 24 hours, and it seems as though a bit of indecision has crept into the market thus paralyzing near term traders.

The 12-hour chart below remains both intriguing and revealing from a short to medium term perspective. We can indeed see the double top in the 740 $ area on what were bearishly divergent momentum indicators, although the "M" top has yet to be confirmed given the 670 $ regional low has yet to be punctured.  Additionally, SCMR did paint a [members-only text] candle yesterday and dynamic support continues to build [members-only text], however we are now getting more red candles and bearish market structure coming in which tells us that perhaps more downside is in the cards prior to a legitimate reversal higher.

Moving on, notice that momentum is now mixed rather than bearish considering Willy and RSI have pulled back into no man's land where they are treading water, MACD is trying to [members-only text], PPO is now neutral, and the short term EMA's have turned bearish while the 200 SMA continues to move to the upside.  Additionally, exchange volumes are not yet signaling a bottom, the A/D line took a small tick lower for the first time in awhile, and volume profile remains porous down to the [members-only text] area.  Speaking of which, there is also a technical confluence in that region in the form of the [members-only text], the intermediate term demand area, historical [members-only text], and the 200-period SMA.  This remains our main area of interest in terms of adding long positions to our already established MT ProTrade.

Generally speaking we think things remain on track for a [members-only text], although we might have to exercise some patient over the next few weeks given the likelihood of a rangy consolidation with a slight bearish bias.  Until further notice we would be longer term buyers of moves down into the [members-only text] zone, shorter term buyers of a retest of the [members-only text], and sellers of rallies up into the [members-only text] range.
​
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ENTERED on 11/10/2016; CLOSED on 11/13/2016]**:  (a) We have closed our [members-only text] position off of the [members-only text] level at [members-only text].

(b) **[ENTERD on 11/11/2016; CLOSED on 11/13/2016]**:  We closed our [members-only text] position at the [members-only text] level.  

(c) **[NEW TRADE ISSUED on 11/14/2016]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 11/14/2016]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/14/2016]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position on a pullback to the a [members-only text] area.

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/11/2016]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position in the [members-only text] area.
**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
0 Comments

Bitcoin Price Report for November 11, 2016

11/11/2016

0 Comments

 
Market Commentary (BTC):  

The bitcoin price is holding up nicely following our issuance of new ProTrades late yesterday afternoon.  While the market hasn't moved that much since then, price has been slowly plodding to the upside, a more important signal than many realize given the technical picture we will discuss below.

From a fundamental perspective, bitcoin has probably never been in a better position than it is today. Long term scaling efforts are in the process of being implemented while hash rate and user numbers continue to grow despite the halving and price increases, respectively.  Additionally, the global macro environment remains favorable for cryptocurrency in general considering China continues to devalue the Yuan, India's cash ban is already having hugely negative repercussions, and massive fiscal stimulus combined with higher rates in the US very well could lead to an inflationary scenario.  Regarding the technicals, lets move on the the charts below for a look at what the weekend might bring.

The 12-hour and the daily charts make the cut today as we want to have a good short to medium term idea of what the market is currently doing.  First lets look at the daily chart as it will frame the shorter term setup nicely.  We can see that things are still going according to plan in terms of the Cup & Handle formation that has been taking shape over the course of the past 6 months.  Despite a bearish rejection in the supply area on the Trump spike, there has not yet been a true topping signal in this area yet and [members-only text].  We also still have very strong dynamic support at [members-only text], the EMA's are confirming the near term uptrend, the 200-day SMA is confirming the medium to long term uptrend, and we have trendline support still rising into the [members-only text] area.  

As far as daily momentum goes, indications aren't as bad as one might expect considering how bullish things have been leaning recently.  Willy remains pinned just under overbought territory, RSI is hanging out in no man's land but is holding the 50-line, the Stochastic is elevated but does not look extended, and MACD has some ways to run if it can hold the centerline.  On the other hand, PPO is still showing sell signals, volume profile remains porous down into the high-500's $, and total exchange volumes are rather mixed.  All in all we would say that the daily technicals are looking fairly bullish, however there is some room for downside if things start failing at resistance in the coming days.  Having said that, the lowest we see price going for now is the [members-only text] area which we are already ready to buy as a ST ProTrade.

Next up is the 12-hour chart for a bit more granularity on what has been taking place recently, and what might take place over the weekend.  First of all, notice that we have a small Cup & handle pattern forming on this chart as well which would indicate that the market is getting ready to make another move to the upside, although you could also make the case that it is an ascending triangle too (another bullish formation).  Also, SCMR is once again painting a [members-only text] candle following a hold of the near term EMA's on the most recent pullback, the 200 SMA is now heading back to the upside, and the momentum indicators look recharged enough for another move in our opinion.

Given that we are now in both the VST and the MT ProTrades, we feel comfortable holding tight at current levels.  No doubt that we want to continue to be [members-only text], but we also realize that the market may simply be too bullish to let players get in at [members-only text].  Regardless, we still like bitcoin going into the end of the year so our long bias makes sense to us if for no other reason than seasonality.
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ACTIVE; ENTERED on 11/10/2016]**:  (a) We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

(b) **[UPDATED on 11/11/2016]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 11/11/2016]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/10/2016]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position on a pullback to the a [members-only text] area.

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/2/2016]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position in the [members-only text] area.
​
**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
​Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Update for November 9, 2016

11/9/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

Wow.  Just wow.  In a surprise victory that practically nobody saw coming, Donald Trump has become the 45th President of the United States.  In the moments after it became apparent that indeed the win would he his, global stock markets were cratering, safe havens were catching a bid (including bitcoin), and forex was injected with a shot of volatility.  As we move into this morning and all of this starts to sink in, markets are calming as investors try to suss out what all of this means for the future of their money.

As mentioned, bitcoin has shown it's might once again as a disaster hedge, rising throughout the night from a low of around 710 $ yesterday afternoon to a local high of 740 $ in the overnight hours.  Despite a failure to breakout to new regional highs on the initial push, the technicals are looking much better than they did just 24 hours ago.

Speaking of which, let's take a look at the 12-hour and daily charts for a better idea of what yesterday's move looks like in the context of the broad range trade that bitcoin remains in between 670 - 745 $.  We can see on the daily chart below that the dump down to that 670 $ low late last week has indeed created a substantial enough handle on the Cup & Handle formation to green light a continuation to the upside at some point in the not too distant future. While it was not as deep and corrective as we thought it would be, the daily chart is looking quite nice in terms of that particular pattern.  Also note that [members-only text], while dynamic support continues to build [members-only text].  Additionally, the near term EMA's are still stacking to the upside, the 200-day SMA remains bullish in an uptrend, and the A/D line continues to move higher.

Conversely, momentum is telling a somewhat different story for the time being, however remember that during the last decent multi-day rally we had in price overbought momentum was a sign of strength. Willy is [members-only text], RSI has more room to run following a hold of the 50-line, the Stochastic is elevated but is already reversing higher, MACD was unable to break below its centerline on the dump last week, and PPO is still flashing weak sell signals but is close to becoming neutral once again.  Finally, trading volumes continue to show that the recent "China" pullback was simply a pause that refreshes rather than the beginning of another extended consolidation. All in all we would say that things look pretty darn good for bitcoin right now despite the possibility of [members-only text].

Moving on to the shorter term 12-hour chart we can see that things look fairly positive here as well. Again, SCMR is [members-only text], dynamic support continues to build around[members-only text], and market structure has turned decidedly bullish.  Additionally, momentum looks much better on this chart than on the daily considering Willy has pulled back deep into no man's land and looks ready to reverse higher, RSI is confirming the move and has room to run, MACD is close to testing its centerline on the way up, and PPO is now neutral.  Add to that the fact that the A/D line is still trending higher and volumes were impressive last night even though there was no breakout, and we think [members-only text].  

Overall, given the fundamental and technical realties that we wake up to today we think bitcoin is in a great position to perform extremely well over the course of the coming months.  While we are not yet ready to call a breakout move imminent at this time given the possibility of a retest of some technical and historical support between [members-only text], we think the odds of a more significant dump continue to diminish every hour that bitcoin remains elevated above the 715 $ breakout level from yesterday.  If that area can hold on selloffs this week, then we think the final six weeks of this year will be alot of fun for bitcoin "bagholders"  ;) 
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ENTERED @ [members-only text]; CLOSED @ [members-only text]]**:  (a) We have closed our [members-only text] position at [members-only text] for a  [members-only text] of [members-only text].

(b) **[CANCELLED on 11/8/2016]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 11/8/2016]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/7/2016]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position on a pullback to the a [members-only text] area.

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/2/2016]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position in the [members-only text] area.
​
**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for November 7, 2016

11/7/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

As the world waits with baited breath for the results of the US election later this week, the bitcoin markets are flatlining ahead of that event.  Following a textbook washout down to new support at 670 $ on the still unconfirmed China rumors, price has since been slowly plodding to the upside as nervousness builds.  Now we are sitting just above 700 $ as the market continues to mark time in a sideways fashion.  We think the bid in bitcoin is coming from [members-only text], although as we will see below via the technicals we think this period of relative stability will be short-lived.  We expect a return to volatility, [members-only text], over the latter half of this week going into next.

We can see on the 6-hour chart below that despite the recent rally up into the low 700's $, the market still looks heavy from a technical perspective.  First of all, notice that market structure is coming in bearish once again on what appears to be a Head & Shoulders topping formation. [members-only text].  Additionally, price is close to breaking back below the intermediate term uptrend line, we are still well outside of the volume profile value area, and the near term EMA's have rolled over once again.

Having said all of that, momentum does look better than it has in awhile considering PPO is still flashing buy signals, Willy and RSI are both consolidating above their respective 40-lines, the Stochastic is moving up swiftly, and the 200-period SMA remains in a bullish uptrend.  Also, regarding volume, the A/D line is still moving higher, exchange volumes are currently unimpressive, and volume profile remains unattractive, all of which tell us that [members-only text]

Given the fundamental landscape at play right now, including the election, we want to stay neutral to slightly bearishly biased for the time being until we get a better idea of directionality over the course of this week.  Having said that, we think the charts are currently indicating another leg to the downside in the not too distant future, one that likely breaks support at [members-only text] on its way to the [members-only text] area, a move which would create a proper ABC correction and would then allow for a continuation higher.  With that in mind, we have issued a new VST ProTrade in order to try to take advantage of the potential volatility coming our way in the latter half of this week, but will limit our target to [members-only text].

NOTE: A Trump victory could potentially "trump" the technicals and send bitcoin significantly higher, however we think that scenario is unlikely at this point given our current analysis.  Even with a Trump win bitcoin could still move lower on a "buy the rumor, sell the news" type trade, we just wanted to mention a breakout as a possibility so that risk management is front of mind for those that are considering [members-only text].
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ISSUED on 11/7/2016]**:  (a) We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

(b) **[ISSUED on 11/7/2016]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 11/7/2016]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/7/2016]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position on a pullback to the a [members-only text] area.

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/2/2016]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position in the [members-only text] area.
​
**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for November 4, 2016

11/4/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

The correction we had long been waiting for finally came yesterday on unconfirmed rumors that China would once again be cracking down on bitcoin capital outflows, as well as more serendipitously timed maintenance downtime from Bitfinex.  Admittedly, neither of these factors were all that compelling to us fundamentally speaking, although we did see them as legitimate triggers to what the technicals had been forecasting for some time.  While it looked as though more downside from the new 670 $ local low was all but guaranteed yesterday, there were and are some very peculiar characteristic of this move that have us rethinking whether or not a regional bottom is already in (Spoilers: [members-only text]).

The first thing to note is the magnitude of the selloff over the past few days.  We started at a regional high of 745 $ and pulled back to 670 $, a 75 $ drop on ~750 $/coin. That is 10% on the nose, and what defines a proper "correction" is a 10% move from high to low.  Interesting. Additionally, there were many margin calls on multiple trading platforms during the day yesterday, yet settlement overnight was anything but discouraging.  Convenient.  Finally, there are many technical signs already emerging on many timeframes that show the bulls bought the dip and continue to do so.  Healthy.

Having said all of that, lets get to a few charts that should put us in the right mindset technically speaking going into the weekend.  First we will show an updated 3-day chart which we have not seen in quite awhile.  Notice the bullish market structure bottom around 500 $ and the [members-only text].  Also note that price looks like it is trying to put in a textbook cup & handle formation, of which the "handle" section is just beginning.  Additionally, we have new dynamic support now sitting at the [members-only text], total exchange volumes are confirming the upward bias, and the A/D line continues to move higher regardless of near term directionality. 

On the other hand, Willy and the Stochastic remain extremely overbought, RSI is rolling over, MACD is still painting a big bearish divergence off of the old 778 $ top, and volume profile remains porous all the way down to the medium term OTE long zone between [members-only text].  Ultimately will think this chart is very bullish from a longer term perspective, however we remain hesitant to say that the correction is over given that cup and handle patterns typically retrace 1/3 of the cup's move which would target a low in the [members-only text] area.  [members-only text].

Moving on to the 6-hour chart, price is now in the upper wedge created by the broken near term uptrend line and the intermediate term trendline.  Also notice that the spike down to 670 $ yesterday tagged the top half of the OTE long zone before bouncing, which created new SCMR dynamic support at [members-only text].  Additionally, we had a [members-only text], however this most recent downdraft has turned the current candle [members-only text].

Regarding momentum and volume, Willy, RSI, and the Stochastic have all pulled back significantly from their overbought levels, although it appears as they still have some room to run to the downside, while PPO is back to neutral and the A/D line continues higher.  There are rather mixed signals still on this shorter term chart, so we will stick with the plan of [members-only text]. However, if we see further signs of strengthening support around current levels we are willing to get long again in the [members-only text] region.

To sum up, there is no change to our longer term forecast, nor our shorter term one which calls for [members-only text].  Having said that, given the volatility over the past 24 hours we would not be surprised to see the market cool off this weekend by consolidating in the [members-only text] area, which means conditions could be ripe for "buy the dip, sell the rip" type trading over the next few days.

Have a great weekend!
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term:  Previous trade closed.  No new ProTrades at this time considering conditions are suboptimal.

2.) Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term **[UPDATED on 11/4/2016]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term **[ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/2/2016]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position on a pullback to the a [members-only text] area.

4.) Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term **[ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/2/2016]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position in the [members-only text] area.
**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for November 2, 2016

11/2/2016

0 Comments

 
Market Commentary (BTC):  

Despite a small pullback to the low 720's $ over the past 12 hours, the market remains in bullish form which indicates that this is simply a pause that refreshes.  While we are not ready to claim that the bottom is in on this move just yet, we do think we are getting close considering market structure is coming in bullish and very short term support has already held on a test of the pivot area.  In our opinion a big contributor to the steady strength of the bitcoin price recently is lack of supply, likely due to the halving, although demand remains a bigger question mark which will likely determine near term directionality.  [members-only text].

Speaking of the short term outlook, today we take a look at the 6-hour chart for the first time in about a week for a view of where we stand in terms of the recent moves to the upside.  We can see that price is oscillating between the medium term supply area shown in orange and the short term pivot area shown in light blue, a sign of indecision for the time being, however it does look as though the pivot area is holding as support for now while market structure tries to paint a rounded bottom.  Also note that  [members-only text], and we now have a steeper uptrend line that should also provide support in the [members-only text]. 

Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that Willy and the Stochastic remain in officially overbought territory but are close to rolling over, PPO is still flashing strong sell signals, and RSI has come down some but remains elevated  As has been the case throughout the entire rally, [members-only text].  Regarding volume, exchange volumes are still pretty substantial and are showing a slight bullish bias plus the A/D line continues to trend higher, however volume profile remains unattractive with PoC sitting all the way back down below 640 $ on porous conditions.  

Bitcoin is in an interesting spot right now in terms of price.  For the time being it appears as though this short term soft patch is simply a sideways consolidation period prior to yet another leg higher, as has been the case over the past few weeks, although even in that scenario we think  [members-only text].  Conversely, if the new local lows can hold while price puts in another market structure bottom, then we should see  [members-only text] in relatively short order.

No matter which way the market decides to head over the near term we are staying bullishly biased, implying that we will continue to try to buy dips into support.  Having said that, at current levels risk/reward profiles prohibit us from issuing any new ProTrades here, but we will be posting some unofficial scalp ideas on Slack as they present themselves over the next few days.  We will also stay steadfast in our [members-only text] over the coming weeks and months.  The shorter term trades are simply a supplement to this bigger, longer term play.

GLGT!
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term **[UPDATED on 11/2/2016]**:  (a) We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text]. 

2.) Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term **[UPDATED on 11/2/2016]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term **[ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/2/2016]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position on a pullback to the a [members-only text] area.

4.) Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term **[ACTIVE]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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