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BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS​

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Bitcoin Price Report for September 30, 2016

9/30/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

As we approach the end of the week, as well as the end of September, bitcoin's price continues to stagnate in the 600 - 610 $ range much the way it has over the past few weeks.  We still think that we get a breakout in one direction or the other other the next several days, however we are less convinced of an imminent upside break.  

Despite this change to the forecast we will stay in the VST ProTrade until the market tells us it is ready to head lower.  As we have said many times throughout the week, we still feel pretty good about our positioning for now regardless of short term directionality.

Moving on to the technicals, we can see on the daily chart below that price is still treading water inside the large symmetrical triangle it has been trapped in for months, as well as inside the pivot area that it has been flirting with for weeks.

Also note that SCMR is painting neutral candles on what continues to be a contraction of price action, and we still do not have any semblance of strong dynamic support or resistance near current levels.  Adding to the confusion...

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Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for September 28, 2016

9/28/2016

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Bitcoin Price Update for September 28, 2016  
Market Commentary (BTC):  

Bitcoin just can't seem to get out of the way of this 600 - 610 $ trading range, not for the time being at least.  Despite the fact that we don't yet see the impetus for a significant move in either direction at this time, we do think the technicals are telegraphing at least a minor breakout from the current restrictive trading area.  

While we cannot rule out a break to the downside, we think it would be limited to our ProTrade buy zones.  Conversely, we do think an upside breakout is more likely, but again would be surprised if the bulls can push price up through multiple resistance levels prior to an indicator recharge.

Getting to the details, we can see on the 12-hour chart below that price is incredibly close to breaking above the symmetrical triangle downtrend line which would resolve us out of the pattern. Notice how price is temporarily suspended between the triangle trendline and the pivot area on neutral SCMR candles and mixed market structure, telling us that there is not much more room to run sideways at this time.  Additionally...

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Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for September 26, 2016

9/26/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

Bitcoin is back in the 600 - 610 $ range following a short stint in the 590's $ last week.  Despite what looked like favorable conditions for a downside continuation into our longer term ProTrade buy zones, this outcome never materialized as bulls moved in quicker than expected.  

Now we are back to playing the waiting game with the market given the near term forecast remains rather uncertain, although we think we are still currently well-positioned regardless of where the market heads over the course of this week.

Despite the fact that it looks like we may be in store for a bit more choppy consolidation, we still think the market is getting ready to make a move in the not too distant future.  Looking at the 12-hour chart below we can see that price remains within the symmetrical triangle that has been active since June, and we are now back above the pivot zone which provided support last week.  

We also have active OTE long and short zones both above and below the market, as well as triangle trendline support and resistance that are closing in on price, so it looks like the case for...

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Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for September 23, 2016

9/23/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

While the bitcoin price remains in the 590 - 600 $ range that we identified yesterday, there have been some interesting developments on the slightly longer term charts that we think are worth noting.  We still think that a final washout down into our VST ProTrade buy zone is possible, however it is looking less and less likely with each day that goes by in which price remains above 590 $.  

At this point we are almost ready to start nibbling longs down around current levels in case this thing starts pushing to the upside over the weekend, although we will wait to add more substantial positions until we we get down into the more favorable VST buy region.

As is typically the case on Friday, we like to take a look at a medium term chart in order to gain some context going into the weekend.  We can see on the daily chart below that price is still inside the symmetrical triangle, and is now below the light blue pivot area...

Also notice how price is below the flatlined EMA's while the 200-day SMA continues to push to the upside, now sitting around 545 $, which could cause a squeeze if they continue to converge. Despite these rather mixed signals, we do see some more bullish evidence which we discuss below...

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Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for September 21, 2016

9/21/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

"It moved!  I think it moved!"  At long last, after 10 days of being trapped in the 600 - 610 $ range, the market is finally moving out of this area to explore other levels.  Due to the fact that there were multiple failed breakouts at 610 $ it made sense to us that the bears would try to take it lower prior to any further upside movement.  Hence why we rightly took off the VST ProTrade yesterday near the highs and why we are hesitant to re-buy at current levels.

Having looked at the longer term charts earlier in the week and the short term chart yesterday, today we want to focus on the medium term via the 12-hour chart below.  We can see that price is still inside of the symmetrical triangle, and as expected is now coming down off of the upper trendline.

Additionally, SCMR is printing red candles now as well, not a great sign, although price is already in the pivot area so some near term support is now emerging. Additionally, the EMA's are bearish, as is the 200 SMA, and volume profile could use some action in the 580 - 600 $ area (mainly at the lower end of this range)...

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Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for September 16, 2016

9/16/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

Bitcoin is still within a few pennies of what the price was when we issued our update yesterday, which is pretty incredible considering OKCoin futures settlement occurred overnight last night.  Despite some choppy volatility in those specific futures markets, the other major exchanges took everything in stride to remain within the tight 605 - 610 $ range.  

While this may not seem like a big deal as a singular event it does add to the growing pile of evidence that this market is preparing for a move, a move to the upside in our opinion.  Both the technicals and fundamentals a aligning going into this fall which will be a recipe for some big moves over the coming months.

Today we take a look at the daily chart for a look at the medium term setup going into the weekend trade.  We can see that price remains in the symmetrical triangle, and is still flatlining just above the bottom of the pivot zone.  Also notice that we are stuck between the 9 and the 18 EMA's, the 200 SMA continues to trend higher, and price is currently still in a volume profile notch area that could use more exploration.  These mixed signals are showing indecision and a lack of conviction on either side of the market so we don't think we are ready for...

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Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for September 14, 2016

9/14/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

Not too much to comment on regarding price action this morning seeing as though the market remains stuck in this 600 - 610 $ near term trading range.  Despite the fact that the charts look pretty good from a shorter term perspective, the longer term technicals are still exhibiting some extended conditions which could use further correcting.  Having said that, we continue to want to be buyers of dips down into our ProTrade zones considering all signs are still pointing to this being a bull market consolidation.

Moving on to said charts, today we take a look at the near term setup via the 4-hour below.  We can see that over the past month or so the market has been inclined to be bullish, even though we had a washout last late last weekend.  Notice that price was traversing along an old uptrend line that when broken sent price back down to sub-600 $ levels (albeit only for a brief period), although this was to be expected given momentum was overbought and divergent.  

Also notice that SCMR is trying desperately to paint a confirmed upside reversal following last weekend's dump, but has yet to do so while candles continue to come in mixed...


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Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for September 12, 2016

9/12/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  
As expected, the market indeed took a leg lower over the weekend following what was a feeble attempt to break sustainably above the 630 $ resistance level on volume.  Clearly the market is trading primarily according to technicals considering this latest failure at a key confluence area, not to mention the fact that the dump yesterday was catalyzed by price action and not fundamentals or news.  

In light of this, we want to make sure we take advantage of the opportunities presented by a market that is in tune with the charts, which is why we have entered the VST ProTrade and are waiting with fresh capital in case price makes one final leg lower into our ST buy zone. 

Moving on to the currently all important technicals we can see on the 12-hour chart below that the symmetrical triangle remains firmly intact, particularly now that we have another touch point on the descending trendline.  Also notice that the breakout failure materialized right around the 200-period SMA, as well as at strong historical SCMR dynamic resistance, both of which will continue to be trouble spots for bulls on the way out of this larger consolidation range.  Having said that...

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Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for September 8, 2016

9/8/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

Another leg of the rally has taken price into the 620 - 630 $ resistance range at the top of the current symmetrical triangle formation. This indeed confirms our upside bias but also reinforces the idea that the market needs at least a quick breather before making moves up into the mid to high 600's $.  

The bulls have been fairly strong so far, which means we are not looking for a big move to the downside in the immediate future, but we still think that a test of the 580 - 600 $ region would be healthy and regenerative for a market that is currently stretched from a technical perspective.

Moving on to said technicals, we can see on the 12-hour chart below that price is now butting up against some serious resistance in the form of the descending triangle trendline, the 200- period SMA, and a large volume profile notch.  Also notice that momentum is now highly overbought on this timeframe as well (in addition to the 6-hour chart we showed yesterday) with Willy and RSI officially there, while MACD struggles to find any juice above the zeroline.  All of these indication are...

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Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for September 6, 2016

9/6/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

And, we're back!  After some long overdue and much needed time off, we return with renewed invigoration and conviction regarding our recent forecasts.  Despite a continuation of the absence of fundamental catalysts, the technicals proved to be enough to spark a breakout from the previous 565 - 585 $ trading range as expected.  

​Now with price sitting just above 600 $ but just below the still intact symmetrical triangle, we stand at a critical juncture with regard to where we might be headed over the course of the next few weeks.  So, without further ado, let's take a look at the daily chart below for a classic medium term view of the current state of the market.

We can see that indeed price is now near the upper bound of the triangle consolidation that the market has been stuck in for almost three months, which means that multiple resistance areas exist overhead in the form of the pivot area and the downtrend line.  Also notice that SCMR is still painting some dynamic resistance around the key 630 $ level, although we finally have new support at 565 $ along with green candles and a myriad of reversal signals.  Additionally, we have some decent market structure to work with following a...

For the complete forecast, full charts, ProTrade Ideas, Slack access, and altcoin coverage, please SUBSCRIBE today!

Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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