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Bitcoin Price Report for August 31, 2016

8/31/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

Although things were looking pretty good yesterday for near term bulls, the market once again turned south following a tag of the 580 $ resistance area.  Now price is sitting back down in the 570 - 575 $ area where it has felt so comfortable for over a month.  

We are not expecting any action in the market until later in the weekend going into early next week, therefore we remain neutral on a market that is stagnant and indecisive at current levels.  We will continue to remain patient overall given a still mixed bag of technicals and some waiting time until the next fundamental catalyst (Bitcoin Core 0.13.1).

Today we revisit the 6-hour chart below for a look at the short to medium term prospects.  We can see that price remains flat within the pivot area, and also continue to hug volume profile PoC, while market structure vacillates between bullish and bearish.  

​Also note that trading volumes remain anemic and volume profile looks relatively thin on either side of the current trading range, however the A/D line is still slowly pressing to the upside so it appears as though there are still buyers around current levels. Additionally, SCMR continues...

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Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for August 29, 2016

8/29/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

Once again no surprises over the weekend as price remains locked in a tight consolidation, although we did get a small break from the 570 - 580 $ range when price dipped into the mid-560's over the weekend.  With a new range in effect from 565 - 585 $ and considering we are going into a long holiday weekend, we think the price action will remain subdued over the course of this week.

With that in mind, lets move to the 6-hour chart below for a look at the short to medium term outlook. First of all, notice that price is still within the symmetrical triangle as it has been for some time, and it now appears to be trapped between volume profile PoC and the near term EMA's. 

Moving on, Willy has reversed back to the upside, RSI is back in neutral territory following a bullish divergence, and MACD and PPO are both showing signs of at least a local bottom around 565 $.  These are encouraging signs that could indicate a small upside bias this week, although we are still...

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Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for August 26, 2016

8/26/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

As we head into the final weekend of August, the market remains stagnant around the 575 $ level.  Despite a few pops up to resistance at 580 $ and a few dumps down to test the bottom of the range at 570 $, for the most part the market has been steadily trading sideways for pretty much the entire week.

We think this period of extreme inactivity will give way to more volume and volatility within the next several weeks, which is likely not what traders want to hear, but the market just does not seem ready to resolve out of this area yet.  Until it is ready, price will remain trapped in a series of ranges.  

Before signing off for the weekend we want to take a look at the daily chart below for a a view of what the market has done throughout the summer.  We can see that price is still right in the middle of a symmetrical triangle consolidation off of the June highs, and the flattening EMA's and still bullish 200 SMA are signaling that this indeed remains an extended sideways consolidation within a bull market...

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Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for August 24, 2016

8/24/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

As the tight, sideways chop persists through the majority of this week due to mixed technicals and relatively boring fundamentals, we want to take a closer look at what the market is doing within the multiple consolidation patterns price is stuck in on multiple timeframes.

It has been tough to get a good gauge on the market following the Finex bottom and subsequent bounce, and it still is, however more encouraging signs continue to emerge as we press on in this still contracting 570 - 590 $ range.  With that in mind let's move on to the updated 4-hour chart below for a look at the short term technicals.

We can see that price was able to breakout of this specific symmetrical triangle, although price also remained heavy and the apex was quickly tested.  Now the market is riding the triangle uptrend line despite neutral SCMR candles and new dynamic support around 570 $. Throw in the fact that the 9/18 EMA cross has flatlined and the 200-period SMA remains bearish and falling around 600 $, and we still have a thoroughly confusing market on our hands for the time being.

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Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for August 19, 2016

8/19/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

Incredibly, the bitcoin price simply refuses to move from this 570 - 580 $ range as both bulls and bears get immediately spurned on any minute move in either direction.  Going into what may be the slowest trading weekend of the year seasonally speaking, we are watchful but not optimistic about a breakout of this range.  

The lack of fundamental catalysts combined with still mixed technicals means that we must remain neutral and patient going into next week, although we do think a move out of the larger 555 - 600 $ trading area is coming in the next week or two.  Until then, though, we remain on the sidelines.

Today we take another look at the 6-hour chart for the short term overview since we will be covering the medium and long term outlooks in the full report on Monday.  We can see that price has truly flatlined around 570 $ which is where volume profile PoC is sitting, as are both the 9 and the 18 EMA's.  As long as price remains within the light blue pivot area, risk/reward will continue to be...


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Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for August 17, 2016

8/17/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

The waiting game persists as the bitcoin markets continue to compress during this slow summer trading season.  Despite the possibility that we could remain locked in the 550 - 600 $ range for a few more weeks, this newer 570 - 580 $ range will likely break sometime this week or this weekend.  

Today we zoom in on the 4-hour chart below given it has been awhile since we have taken a serious look at shorter term technicals.  The first thing to notice is that we have another working symmetrical triangle on this timeframe in addition to the longer term charts, which continues to squeeze price into the current trading range (and is also where volume profile PoC is and hence where near term fair value is).  

Also note that there is a new minor pivot area from 555 - 570 $ which should provide some support on dips, and SCMR is once again painting neutral/mixed candles following a few days of bullish price action earlier this week.  Finally, the OTE short zone continues to sit right overhead between 585 - 620 $ while the major OTE long zone still lies between 500 - 520 $, not to mention that...

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Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for August 15, 2016

8/15/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

Indeed we got a rather uneventful weekend, as expected, despite a pullback to the bottom of the still intact trading range between 550 - 600 $.  Following a local low of 556.24 $ yesterday, price has since been slowly recovering back into the 570 $ area.  Seeing as though we are currently in the heart of the summer trading doldrums we are not expecting much movement this week either, although if the 550 - 600 $ range does get broken somehow then stronger support still lies at 520 $ and resistance at 630 $.  

With that in mind, let's take a look at the 6-hour chart for a snapshot of the short to medium term technicals.  First of all, notice that the ascending wedge we pointed out last week was indeed a bearish signal as price is now well below those levels.  Also notice that we are still in the light blue pivot zone despite a quick washout below it on Sunday, and we remain in a volume profile mini-PoC region with a notch around 580 $ that needs to be filled in prior to a move out of this range.  

Additionally, SCMR is still painting red candles with new minor dynamic resistance building around 575 $, and market structure remains bearish despite the semblance of stability coming back into the market now.  Finally, the 9/18 EMA cross remains ...

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Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for August 12, 2016

8/12/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

The bitcoin markets are still flatlining around the 590 $ level despite a breakdown out of the ascending wedge we showed yesterday on the 6-hour chart.  While this should have catalyzed a more substantial move to the downside considering market structure remains bearish and uncertainty is still present, this failed to materialize due to the bulls continuing to buy up coins on even the smallest dips.

As we head into the weekend, a weekend which may once again be rather anemic from a price action standpoint, we want to take a look at our preferred medium term chart, the 12-hour.  Here we can see that price is right in the middle of what appears to be a large symmetrical triangle consolidation with support at 520 $ and resistance at 640 $.

Additionally, the 9 and 18 EMA's have stalled in the middle of said pivot zone, as has the 200 SMA, all of which are now strangling price at current levels.  Also notice that Willy is getting close to overbought while RSI is still pinned to the lower half and MACD is rolling over...

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Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for August 10, 2016

8/10/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

The market continues to settle into this 580 - 600 $ range as positioning for the next breakout move intensifies.  Given that Bitfinex will reopen operations within the next 48 hours, we are expecting volatility to pick up at least a little bit which very well could drive us out of this trading zone.

Moving on to the technicals, we can see on the daily chart below that price is rolling over right around a historical resistance line, the bottom of the pivot area, and at the 9 EMA.  Additionally, there is a volume profile notch just overhead and market structure is coming in bearish, while trading volumes continue to confirm the move to the downside last week.  Finally, notice that SCMR is painting red candles again while also showing multiple reversal cancellations over the past few days.  This is not a great sign for the bulls, but is also not a death knell.

Despite these bearish indications, it is not all bad news for the bulls at this time.  Notice that Willy is now testing the centerline while in a slight uptrend, RSI remains pinned in the lower half which means that there is room to run to the upside, and PPO is still painting bright green bars (a bullish signal).  Also, MACD is still showing a substantial bullish divergence from the washout last week and...

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Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for August 8, 2016

8/8/2016

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

Indeed the weekend brought some subdued price action with a bullish bias up to the 600 $ resistance region as expected.  Now as we enter the new week, price is staying pinned to the 590 $ level which is a sign that there are not as many sellers in this area as previously expected.  Despite the possibility that the bulls continue to push price to the upside through 600 $, we do not think there is enough juice technically speaking to get through heavier resistance around 630 $.

Back to the trusty 12-hour chart today for a look at the short to medium term technicals.  First, we can see that price has popped back above the 200-period SMA and 18 EMA, but is now running into resistance in the form of the 9 EMA as well as the top of the pivot zone. Also notice that we are entering a fairly large volume profile notch as SCMR continues to paint neutral candles, so we may be stalled around these levels for some time.

Moving on to momentum we can see that Willy has broken above the centerline but looks somewhat toppy near term, RSI remains below 50 and is flatlining, and MACD is still unconvincing for either bulls or bears.  Additionally, the CM Vix remains...

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Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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