Market Commentary

Following what was a horrific start to this final week of June, the bitcoin markets over the past 12 hours have been surprisingly resilient in the face of what are very confusing technicals on multiple timeframes. In our analysis through the end of the week we will show that the longer term charts are now starting to [members-only text], although the shorter term charts are looking much better than they did earlier in the week.

Additionally, we still don't have anymore clarity on the fundamentals (SegWit) than we did yesterday, which remains a hindrance to the market over the coming weeks, and trader senitment has quickly shifted back to bullish (perhaps only temporarily though). While we are not ruling out the possibility of a resumption of the bull market uptrend soon given there is a bullish fractal forming that looks very similar to the one that formed during the correction in May, due to the uncertain technicals and fundamentals we are [members-only text] for the time being.

6-Hour Chart

The 6-hour chart below continues to show very mixed signals considering SCMR went [members-only text] following a series of [members-only text], but is already now back to [members-only text] for the time being. Also note that price is currently in a congestion zone via the choppy EMA's, the indecisive 50 SMA, and the top of the Ichimoku Cloud (which is still painting a bearish Kumo twist out in front of the market). We can also see that triangle trendline resistance and the [members-only text] zone both sit just above [members-only text], so perhaps that is a reasonable target for what we still think is a countertrend bounce within a larger consolidation. On the other hand, buyers were eager to step in once again in the upper demand area, near the top of the [members-only text] zone, and around the 200 SMA, which tells us that the general bias remains [members-only text] for now, however we are skeptical as to how much further it can go from here before retesting lower levels again.

Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that the momentum oscillators are coming off of oversold conditions with plenty of room to run to the upside if centerlines can be broken, while MACD has already moved above its zeroline following a small bullish divergence which confirmed yesterday. Additionally, buyers appear to be holding firm as per the A/D line, although exchange volumes have been favoring the bears as of late. If nothing else, we think the market continues to [members-only text] while longer term conditions continue to undergo a much needed recharge, however if forced to choose near term bias we would have to say it remains [members-only text] for now.

Daily Chart

We return to the daily chart today before taking a look at some longer term charts going into the end of the week, and we can see that the head and shoulders pattern we discussed yesterday has not yet confirmed below [members-only text]. Having said that, not only is said H&S pattern still intact as long as price stays below the regional high and dynamic resistance level at [members-only text], but there could be another even smaller H&S forming inside of this rather odd right shoulder we have materializing (which would be another [members-only text]). On the other hand, the upper trendline and 50 SMA both held as support during the spikes lower over the past few days, SCMR is trying to paint [members-only text] right now, and the Ichimoku Cloud continues to confirm the bull market. 

As far as momentum and volume are concerned, notice that the momentum oscillators have come down from overbought territory a bit, but still have plenty of room to run to the downside before being properly recharged, the EMA's have flatlined and are currently acting as resistance (a sign of indecision), and volume profile remains very thin all the way down to the [members-only text] area. While we are not expecting a move down that low at this time, it remains a definite possibility over the next month or so so we must keep it in mind. All things considered, we would be surprised if price could get much above the [members-only text] level without another retest to the downside, which is why we continue to stay patient in our buy zones for the market to come to us. 

Market Commentary

​Surprisingly there hasn't been much action as a result of futures settlements so far this morning, although the muted response may be due to the bigger quarterlies expiration next Friday which should have more of an impact. With that in mind, we think the market could remain relatively flat through the weekend and early part of next week, especially if the SegWit news vacuum persists as it has for the past few days.

Additionally, the technicals are still mixed on the short to medium term charts, as they are on the longer term charts such as the 3-day we will take a look at today, all of which increases the likelihood of [members-only text] over the coming days. That said, overall the bias continues to be [members-only text] in our opinion, so if there is a breakout we expect [members-only text].

6-Hour Chart

One last look at the 6-hour chart this week given it remains our favorite view of the short term setup. We can see that price is still treading water in the [members-only text] zone on what remain [members-only text] candles, [members-only text], although there appears to the be a market structure double top trying to come in around 2750 $ (which is also where volume profile PoC is) which would likely put a stop to the still active inverse head and shoulders pattern we have working. Also note that the larger ascending triangle remains intact, the Ichimoku Cloud continues to stay bullish, and dynamic resistance is [members-only text], all encouraging indications at this time.

Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that Willy and the Stochastic are still overbought, while RSI, MACD, and PPO all remain neutral. Also note that the EMA's are steadily creeping higher, we are still above the 50 SMA (although it is heading down for the time being), and the 200 SMA continues to be supportive of the longer term bull market. Additionally, despite the fact that exchange volumes are dwindling, the A/D line continues to move to the upside while volume profile is filling in nicely above [members-only text]. While we cannot rule out a weekend retracement back down to the [members-only text] to test [members-only text], we would be buyers of that move and think it would recharge the market for [members-only text].

​NOTE: The chart below is not the complete chart shown to members. Subscribe today for full access.

3-Day Chart

As promised, we are turning to the 3-day chart today as we head into what should be a rather benign weekend trading environment. We can see that earlier this month we did indeed get a [members-only text] candle to paint, although now we are already back to [members-only text] following the hammer rejection out of the upper demand area. Notice that this created new dynamic support at [members-only text], the first of its kind since the breakout above the 2013 ATH's earlier this year, which should be encouraging to longer term bulls. Additionally, market structure remains fairly bullish, the moving averages all continue to move higher, the Ichimoku Cloud is still supportive and rising, and all trendlines remain intact. That said, overhead resistance in the form of the ATH supply area, as well as current resistance via the [members-only text] zone, on a 6-hour double top is not great so we are staying cautious for the time being.

As far as momentum and volume are concerned, Willy, the Stochastic, and PPO are still pinned in overbought territory while RSI continues to paint a nasty bearish divergnce, however MACD looks healthy so it is tough to tell whether these conditions are signaling strength or exhaustion. In light of the fact that the A/D line is still accelerating to the upside, indicating that [members-only text], we will err of the side of strength, especially since this has been the right call all year. While we would welcome a pullback into the [members-only text], or even the [members-only text] to test the upper trendline, to recharge momentum and give us a chance to hop back into a medium or long term trade, we are not counting on it given the relative strength we have seen in price action this week in the face of what should have been a bad week technically speaking. We will continue to [members-only text] until the market tells us we are mistaken.

NOTE: The chart below is not the complete chart shown to members. Subscribe today for full access.

6-Hour Chart

We start out this week with a look at the 6-hour chart once again as there remain some contradictory signals over the near term. Notice that price has flatlined within the upper demand area and still bullish Ichimoku Cloud on what are [members-only text] candles (following a [members-only text] early yesterday), all while relatively strong dynamic resistance continues to build at [members-only text]. Also note that market structure is neutral, as are the EMA's, while price remains pinned between the 50 and 200 SMA's (a sign of [members-only text]). Finally, note that we see what could be an inverse head and shoulders pattern currently forming, as long as price remains above volume profile PoC, so we will be watching that [members-only text] area closely.

Moving on to momentum and volume, we can see that the momentum oscillators are sending conflicting signals with Willy and the Stochastic getting awfully close to officially overbought territory, if not already there, while RSI, MACD, and PPO are all still [members-only text]. Also notice that exchange volumes are waning, the A/D line remains healthy, and volume profile looks pretty good, so as long as momentum can recharge over the near term without a significant breakdown we think there is a decent chance of [members-only text] over the course of this week. If not, we will be [members-only text].

Daily Chart

Back to the daily chart for the medium term outlook in which we can see that things are fairly mixed on this timeframe as well, although there are some interesting indications worth noting. First of all, note that SCMR is painting [members-only text], but this time following a [members-only text] which has sent the market back into sideways mode. Additionally, price is currently struggling to get back above the still minorly bullish EMA's on [members-only text], although the longer term SMA's and the Ichimoku Cloud are still bullish. Finally, it looks like another ascending triangle is trying to form, a pattern that has been extremely popular amongst the altcoins recently and which has been a fairly reliable bullish formation since they started emerging a few weeks ago. As long as the triangle trendline and 50 SMA can hold on dips, this remains a [members-only text] that likely [members-only text].

As far as momentum and volume are concerned, things actually look better on this timeframe than they do on the 6-hour chart above considering all of the oscillators are now well below overbought territory and are actually close to fully recharged, even PPO. All this while the A/D line continues to accelerate to the upside signaling [members-only text] at current levels. While we think the likelihood of a breakout to new ATH's over the next few days is slim, we do think that [members-only text] after the shorter term technicals are cleaned up. We are hoping for a pullback into the near term [members-only text] zone, but if not we will be ready to [members-only text] when/if it materializes.

Market Commentary

​Volatility made a return overnight last night following what was a slow and steady march to the upside for most of the weekend. While things ended up materializing slightly differently than we had expected, although not much, the effect on the market will ultimately be the same as if price had corrected at the beginning of the weekend rather than the end. Seeing as though price action and market structure remain [members-only text], as do the longer term technicals, we think the current selloff will be yet another opportunity [members-only text].  We are still watching the [members-only text] region very closely, particularly the [members-only text] zone, for signs of a reversal back to the upside.

6-Hour Chart

We return to the 6-hour chart below for a look at the short to medium term setup.  We can see that a [members-only text] candle painted early this morning which is [members-only text], however we are already getting a [members-only text] bar trying to paint despite being rejected by the the bottom of the new ATH supply area. Also note that dynamic resistance is now building for the first time since April at the [members-only text] while the EMA's start to roll over to the downside. On the other hand, market structure remains intact (higher lows, higher highs), the Ichimoku Cloud is still bullish and rising, the [members-only text] zone and 50 SMA are currently acting as support just below the market, and even stronger dynamic support continues to build around the [members-only text] level. The 2612 $ regional low should also act as support, but ultimately it is that [members-only text] area that needs to hold to maintain the near term bullish bias.

Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that Willy and the Stochastic are finally coming down out of overbought territory while RSI and MACD confirm small bearish divergences, however PPO is still neutral and the SMA's are supportive of the [members-only text] market. Regarding volume, the A/D line remains relatively steady at elevated levels despite some heavy sell volumes overnight, however volume profile is more porous than it has been in awhile so perhaps a few days of chop are in order to fill in some of the upper notches. All things considered, we think the market is experiencing a [members-only text] following what was a very bullish week last week that included a legitimate attempt to get above 3000 $.

Daily Chart

Throughout the morning the daily chart has been trying to paint a [members-only text] candle, but keeps popping back to [members-only text] in short order as dynamic support continues to build around the [members-only text] and [members-only text] levels. We have seen this type of price action before during other periods of consolidation as the rally has progressed throughout 2017, and while it could mean that more [members-only text] is possible before a bottom and subsequent sustainable break above 3000 $, the medium to long term bull market should [members-only text]. Notice that price is also trying to hold above the previous major ATH at 2760 $, which is around where the top of the upper demand area now sits as well, while the EMA's try to act as support given they remain bullish for the time being. 

As fas as momentum and volume are concerned, RSI has started its recharge desent however Willy and the Stochastic still have alot of wood to chop, RSI and MACD have both confirmed bearish divergences on the new ATH, and PPO continues to flash [members-only text] signals. Additionally, the A/D line appears to be rolling over slightly as sell volume picks up a bit, however neither is sending any significant warning signs (at least not for the time being). Overall we think the market has some work to do in terms of recharging and finding a new [members-only text], although in the context of the bull market this is perfectly healthy price action which should help the [members-only text] for the foreseeable future.

**Premium members see live trades, complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge: subscribe today.**


​

Market Commentary
Yesterday was a very interesting day for bitcoin, although ultimately the effect on price and the charts was minimal.  The morning started off great with a breakout to new all time highs that saw price get very close to the psychologically significant 3000 $ level, but then took a rather nasty turn following a tweet by Mark Cuban calling bitcoin a bubble.  The fact that the technicals were overbought on a very near term basis also contributed to the 200 $ fall, but indications on the higher timeframes are what helped drive price almost immediately back up near the highs.  Good thing we issued a ProTrade in the [members-only text] range prior to the selloff yesterday as price indeed moved below 2700 $ on the Cuban mini-crash, although we were only able to [members-only text] just below there as the opportunity was fleeting.

Regardless, the charts are back on track, and in fact look better now than they would have otherwise given momentum is recharging nicely on the shorter term charts.  While the market may be stuck consolidating between [members-only text], at least until futures settlements in about 48 hours, after that things are looking pretty good going the weekend in terms of the technicals.
​

4-Hour Chart
​
We return to the 4-hour chart yet again as it remains the best view of the near term setup for the time being.  We can see that despite the spike lower into the resistance turned demand area shown in light blue, which also created new dynamic support at the [members-only text], SCMR has been able to [members-only text] market structure has stayed bullish.  Also note that the EMA's remain bullish too and are acting as support right now, the SMA's continue to confirm the longer term bull market, and the Ichimoku Cloud is expanding even further to the upside following yesterday's action.  Generally speaking, all of this is evidence of a [members-only text] period prior to [members-only text].

Turning to momentum and volume, we can see that while most of the momentum oscillators remain very close to overbought, they are beginning to recharge a bit while price moves sideways within a range (a very good sign).  Also notice that bullish trading volumes spiked yesterday as the market was correcting lower, a sign that [members-only text], which is being confirmed by the A/D line which still looks healthy.  Finally, despite some noticeable notches below the market volume profile looks relatively healthy compared to how it has looked in the recent past, and especially compared to the higher timeframe charts.  Overall we think the market is pausing to refresh prior to [members-only text] once we get closer to the weekend (again, likely after futures settlements on Friday morning).

Daily Chart
​
​The daily chart appears to be confirming what the 4-hour is saying given we still have [members-only text] bars being painted, in addition to still building [members-only text] and a bullish hammer candle trying to paint today.  Even if we don't get said hammer, which would likely portend higher prices in short order, price action and market structure are both suggesting that this is simply a sideways consolidation that [members-only text].  The EMA's, SMA's, and Ichimoku Cloud are all confirming this bullish bias as well, telling us that the longer term bull market remains fully intact.

Moving on to the momentum oscillators and volume indicators, we can see that Willy and the Stochastic are now in officially overbought territory while RSI rolls over just below there, and we do have a small [members-only text] divergence that could go either way at this point.  On the other hand, volume signals are still very bullish considering the A/D line continues to accelerate higher, and actual trading volumes continue to confirm the strength.  Again, at this point we must assume that [members-only text] are a good thing, which further reaffirms the notion that we are in a consolidation right now and not a topping process.

Market Summary
​
Taking everything that has happened this week into consideration, we find it hard to see where the selling would come from that would take us all the way back down into the [members-only text] where stronger dynamic support sits (as well as other technical confluences).  If that did materialize then we would be buyers of the move, however we think we had our chance yesterday so we are glad we took at least a small shot on the long side.  

Now we will wait and see what the market brings over the rest of this week, although as has been presented thoughout this update we think that the [members-only text] can continue though Friday morning and thereafter price can [members-only text].

**Premium members see live trades, complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge: subscribe today.**
​