Market Commentary

Quite surprisingly ETH is holding up exceptionally well considering there is quiet a bearish setup currently on the daily chart below.  We can see that a fairly nasty "M" top has been put in around the 35 level, which will make it exceedingly difficult for the bulls to push through there.  That said, there are other indications that make us think that price can push up into resistance according to the ProTrade below. 

There are a few signs that are encouraging for short term bulls at the moment.  First of all we can see that price wicked down into the near term OTE long zone over the weekend but was quickly rejected back above it and the volume profile PoC.  Additionally, SCMR dynamic support held in this area as well despite fairly swift sellside exchange volumes over the past week or so, and SCMR candles are now painting a possible confirmed reversal up for the time being.  Lastly, momentum is mixed considering the EMA's have crossed bearishly, RSI and Willy are chopping around in no man's land, PPO is neutral, and the A/D line remains relatively strong.  ​

We currently have a ProTrade working from more favorable levels.  For the specifics of the trade, the longer term forecasts, and additional bitcoin and altcoin coverage SUBSCRIBE today!

Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at BullBearAnalytics.com.

Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Disclaimers & Policies page.
 

The frustration amongst active bitcoin traders is palpable on both the bullish and bearish sides of the ball due primarily to this seemingly never-ending sideways consolidation. Considering sentiment has shifted from hyper-bullish to firmly bearish, we think this will continue. 

As we have said before, the market's job is to bamboozle as many participants as possible at any given time. When bulls get too confident in a breakout and start piling in on the long side, then we can be fairly certain that a move to the downside will try to take them out. Conversely, when too many bears pile on it is rather easy to see a short-squeeze spike to the upside materialize to wash them out as well. When we have split sentiment in which half of the players are very bullish and the other half are downright bearish, we get the perfect conditions for a prolonged and agonizing period of relative inactivity (we are here). 

While many traders might view this as a negative for the longer term health of the market, from a technical point of view this type of action is actually good in terms of sustainability. There is an old Wall Street adage that says that “the longer the base, the higher in space”, indicating that the longer we chop around these rather depressed levels prior to a significant upside breakout, the higher the market has the potential to rally once it does resolve. 

Despite the fact that some traders may become impatient or jaded prior to the breakout move and will thus leave the marketplace altogether, this period of stagnation also allows other players to continue to strengthen their core positions buy adding at favorable support levels. This additional accumulation allowed by the sideways marking of time also allows for much more accumulation by strong hands. While it may seem less than optimal to wait through another 6 weeks of chop for a real move, do not fret because this could turn out to be a great thing going forward. 

​Market Commentary (BTC):  

Yesterday was a fascinating, if not frustrating, day in terms of price action in both BTC and ETH as their negative correlation intensifies.  
While Ether was spiking up above the 34 resistance area, BTC was busy dumping 20 $ as multiple trendline support levels were taken out.  

Much like we saw earlier in the week, the failure to break back above 460 $ a few days ago led to even more SCMR dynamic resistance which was the catalyst the bears needed to get the margin call train rolling.  Now that we have tested the mid-430's $ and bounced, we can insinuate that there are indeed still buyers emerging down at these slightly depressed levels.  

Despite the fact that we are not currently in a ProTrade given the near term technical uncertainty, we are still watching lower levels for establishing a long position.  To find out where we are buyers and what the longer term forecasts are, SUBSCRIBE today!

Market Commentary:

The perfect mix of technicals, fundamentals, and hype have all hit the Ether market simultaneously this week which has brought to fruition our forecast for higher prices.  

Now that the initial resistance level of 27 has been breached on decent volume, we see no reason to try to call a top just yet, particularly considering that the DAO fundraise is still active and drawing media attention.  ​

Where is price heading next?  For our complete Ether forecast, all ProTrade Ideas, and access to our altcoin Slack room SUBSCRIBE today.

Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at BullBearAnalytics.com.

Market Commentary:

The fact that the bitcoin markets were barely changed from 10 days ago is mindboggling. We are not quite sure yet if this is a sign of additional liquidity as a result of greater demand, or if it is a sign that shorts are building for a spike lower. We tend to think the former, but will certainly not rule out the latter given it is perfectly reasonable from a risk/reward perspective right now. Whatever the case, the bears are having a helluva time pushing prices below the short and medium term trendlines.

Having said that, we have noticed an increase in bearish sentiment lately, especially from the exchange trollboxes and TradingView, which in conjunction with price action tells us that the bears are simply unable to generate enough fear to drive us down through support (at least for the time being). We view this a positive development, but as time passes it also opens us to the risk that longs get too over-extended. This could potentially drive margin calls to the downside. 

Generally speaking, we view the last few weeks of bitcoin trading as bullish despite a legitimate breakout to the upside. We also have not had a major breakdown to the downside either, so both teams seem to be equally frustrated right now.

Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at https://legal.