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BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS​

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Bitcoin Price Report for April 28, 2017

4/28/2017

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​

Market Commentary:

While the market looked unstoppable for most of the day yesterday, a final failure to break above the key 1350 $ ATH resistance level precipitated the downside volatility that we are witnessing this morning.  This is precisely why we wanted to wait for the market to prove itself by moving convincingly though [members-only text] prior to activating the VST ProTrade [members-only text], a decision that has so far proved advantageous.  That said, now we are stuck in the position of having to wait for the market to tell us what it wants to do: head higher following a brief recharge to test the ATH once again, or continue to press lower into support where it could chop around for a few days.  We'll turn to the technicals for the answer, however at this point we do not see much on the fundamental horizon that could take this market much below [members-only text], if at all, even if things turn ugly.

Other than that, we don't have too much more to say before moving on to the charts.  Given the price action we have observed over the past 12 hours, we would say there is a pretty good chance of moving sideways for the majority of the weekend as new near term support and resistance levels are established and tested.



4-Hour Chart:

Considering the added volatility we have seen over the past few hours, we wanted to close the week with a slightly shorter term chart for a more detailed view of what is currently occurring. We can see that price has turned somewhat bearish from a market structure perspective, although its not too bad yet, while spiky rejections up near 1350 $ have triggered more [members-only text] SCMR candles.  That said, we still do not have any new [members-only text], price is holding within the ATH supply area, and the EMA's are already providing support as they continue to stack to the upside for now.  Additionally, the longer term moving averages are still supportive of the bull market, the Ichimoku Cloud continues to expand higher, and there are [members-only text] to work off of if weakness intensifies over the weekend.

Moving on to momentum and volume and things look more interesting than they have in awhile. Notice that none of the momentum oscillators are in officially overbought territory anymore, other than PPO which mildly is, however they are all still pinned up in near that area.  Also note that MACD has broken back below its zeroline, but with relatively muted fanfare.  Finally, volumes are more mixed than they have been in some time, although they are increasing (which is good), and volume profile looks as healthy as it has in months other than some thin air between 
[members-only text] and [members-only text].  We would love to get an opportunity to catch a dip back down into that area, or if not to [members-only text], so we will keep all of the VST & ST setups intact over the weekend. ​
Weekly Chart:

As we expand our view of the market even further today, the weekly chart seems a good way to wrap up and tie a bow on the technicals.  First of all, it is almost impossible to deny the general bullish market structure that we have working on this chart.  A beautiful rounded frying pan bottom is now facilitating speculative demand near the highs at a time when available supply seems to be getting smaller by the day.  Notice that SCMR is [members-only text] as price continues to consolidate broadly between [members-only text], however we think the market is getting close to moving into unchartered waters especially if price can put in a higher low over the next few weeks. 

As far as momentum and volume are concerned, all of the relevant moving averages remain in firm uptrends, Willy and RSI continue to chop around just below overbought territory, the Stochastic is back to the 80-line, MACD is anemic, and PPO is still flashing weak sell signals. Additionally, trading volumes are favoring the bears for now on this timeframe, the A/D line looks healthy but is stalling, and volume profile is very thin below the market.  While some of these indications should give us pause at these elevated levels, at least over the near term, we think the bias still favors the bulls considering that overbought momentum has been a sign of strength throughout the 2017 rally.  No doubt that could change at any moment, however price action and market structure don't seem to be hinting at such a reversal, at least not yet.
Market Summary:

While the failure to breakout to new ATH's might be frustrating to some traders, we think this consolidation is a more optimal scenario for sustainable price increases over the coming weeks as opposed to transitioning into parabolic-mode already. There was a chance of entering what would likely have been the final phase of this bull market if we did go that route, however it looks like the market is staying rational enough to check price back down when things start to get stretched.  

If the market can continue to be well-behaved yet upwardly inclined over the coming days, then
[members-only text] seems like a pretty good bet in the not too distant future.  Regardless of what happens, we are ready and waiting for whatever the market throws at us over the weekend.
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Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 4/28/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 4/28/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 4/27/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 4/28/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [UPDATED on 4/28/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

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​

Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Update for April 24, 2017

4/24/2017

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​

Market Commentary:

As we had hoped would happen going into the weekend on Friday, the bears took a shot at bringing the market down which gave us an opportunity to activate the VST ProTrade at [members-only text] (a bit higher than planned, but better than missing it altogether).  The market recovered most of those losses almost immediately following the spike down to a local low of 1199 $ on Saturday, and since then the market has been treading water between 1230 - 1250 $ (still a key area of historical resistance).  Seeing as though Finex continues to maintain close to a 100 $ premium over the other major Western exchanges, in conjunction with the fact that BU had yet another node-crashing bug earlier today, we think the fundamental bias remains with the bulls for the time being.

In terms of the technicals, there is no denying that things are still quite overbought on most timeframes, particularly the short to medium term.  We will take a look at both via the 6-hour and daily charts below, but keep in mind that theme of 2017 has been that overbought conditions are more likely to signal strength than weakness (one of the hallmarks of a strong bull market).



6-Hour Chart:

We return to the 6-hour chart today to see what might be in store for traders this week.  We can see that price is back inside the lower supply area following a brief stint below it over the weekend, and SCMR is back to painting [members-only text] candles after a few [members-only text] bars painted as well.  Also note that market structure is now coming in more bullish than it has in awhile, all relevant moving averages remain supportive of further upside, the bullish Ichimoku Cloud continues to expand, and dynamic support is still building at [members-only text] and [members-only text].  Given that the spiky low from the weekend stopped on a dime at the 50 SMA, as well as a still healthy A/D line, we think demand remains strong below [members-only text].

Moving on, we can see that Willy and the Stochastic are back in overbought territory following a very shallow recharge over the past few days, RSI and MACD are still lagging, and PPO remains neutral.  Considering that price is once again stabilizing in what should be a historically significant resistance area, we think that bias remains with the bulls despite volume profile leaving much to be desired (especially around the
[members-only text] mark).  As long as the new 1199 $ low can hold on moves lower, then [members-only text] looks likely over the course of this week.
Daily Chart:

We also want to return to the daily chart today as it looks like our consolidation formation has shifted once again.  A secondary break above what was the symmetrical triangle/pennant late last week has increased the odds of an ascending triangle materializing, which is still longer term bullish but might be hinting at a [members-only text] in the not too distant future.  Notice that price is now in the daily supply area and is pushing up against historical dynamic resistance around [members-only text], and just above that is the [members-only text] area which should provide extra resistance as well.  That said, the EMA's are still stacking to the upside, the bullish Ichimoku Cloud is expanding once again, and dynamic support continues to build below the market.

On the other hand, momentum is getting stretched to a point that has precipitated pullbacks at times in the past.  Willy and the Stochastic are officially overbought, RSI is close to the 80 line, MACD remains stagnant, and PPO is still neutral somehow.  Additionally, trading volumes remain unimpressive, the A/D line is still pretty flat, and volume profile continues to look ok despite a few notches below the market.  While we are glad that we were able to get in small short term position near the lows over the weekend, we are going to play it safe by moving stops into profit.
Market Summary:

We get the feeling from both a technical and fundamental perspective that the market has a good chance of grinding [members-only text] over the course of this week as Finex arbitrage persists, and uncertainty regarding a hard fork continues to diminish (at least for the time being). While we would actually prefer the market tread water around current levels in order to give the oscillators a better opportunity to recharge, which would in turn make a [members-only text] more likely in the near future, for now it looks like there isn't much in the way of [members-only text] (who remain in charge).
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Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ACTIVE; ENTERED on 4/22/2017]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 4/24/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 4/24/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [UPDATED on 4/24/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
​
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​
​
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for April 19, 2017

4/19/2017

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​
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​

Market Commentary:

It's been steady as she goes for the bitcoin markets so far this week as bulls and bears continue to battle it out at relatively elevated levels.  We are quite certain that the Bitfinex issues (which have led to the 60+ $ premium), now combined with those at OKCoin in terms of fiat deposits, are assisting in keeping prices above 1200 $ on most exchanges, so it will be interesting to see what materializes if/when these problems are resolved.  For the time being, though, the technicals remain mixed to slightly bullish while the fundamentals continue to drive uncertainty, so we want to stay [members-only text] for the time being.

Given these unfavorable conditions we think it is unlikely that price moves too far away from the still active
[members-only text] trading range, at least not until after futures settlements early Friday morning.  That gives us a few more days of chop until a potential resolution going into what could be another wild weekend.


4-Hour Chart:

Seeing as though the action has flattened out again recently, we want to zoom in slightly today via the 4-hour chart below.  Notice that price is in yet another [members-only text] zone where price is consolidating within it rather than selling off back below it (a bullish sign), although we still don't have any new [members-only text] to shoot against yet which is not so good.  What is good, though, is that the EMA's have held on the recent spikes down to 1190 $, in addition to the fact that the 50 SMA remains bullish and the 200 SMA still supportive, all while SCMR has stayed [members-only text] over the past 24 hours.  Finally, the Ichimoku Cloud remains firmly bullish and the A/D line continues to confirm the market strength.

Moving on to momentum and things get a bit more challenging considering Willy is now fully pinned in officially overbought territory, the Stochastic is still overbought as well despite a minor recharge thus far, RSI has flatlined in no man's land, MACD is about to break back below the zeroline, and PPO remains neutral.  Additionally, price is on the border of the volume profile value area, which remains thin below the market especially around
[members-only text], and recent exchange volumes have been leaning [members-only text].  Having said that, there are many patches of fairly substantial support at multiple levels below the market so for now we want to remain in [members-only text] mode.
Daily Chart:

Not too much has changed in terms of the daily chart over the past 24 hours, although you will notice that we have adjusted the upper triangle trendline to account for the recent regional high at 1229 $.  While we are skeptical as to whether or not the triangle is still in play, we think it helpful to visualize where trendline resistance would be if it were in fact still intact.  Another breakout above this updated downtrend line, combined with now somewhat [members-only text], would likely spell the death of the triangle for good (or at least morph it into an ascending triangle, which actually is a very real possibility given recent price action).

As far as momentum and volume are concerned, there hasn't been too much change since yesterday as Willy remains overbought, RSI is still anemic, the Stochastic is pausing, MACD is near its zeroline, and PPO has returned to neutral.  Also note that the EMA's remain supportive and bullish while the 200 SMA continues to confirm the longer term bull market, and the Ichimoku Cloud is still bullish despite some recent contraction.  Conversely, volumes are falling off a cliff, the A/D line has stagnated, and volume profile remains
[members-only text].  Under normal circumstances we would say that these are prime conditions for a more substantial pullback prior to a real attempt at a break above the [members-only text] resistance area, however considering recent price action it is hard to believe that the bears could get too much going over the short term barring an unforeseen negative catalyst.
Market Summary:

Once again the market toyed with our VST ProTrade entry zone overnight, missing it this time by a mere 5 $.  While we would have likely waited until price got further into that [members-only text] area, the fact that we are getting close to these levels means that we remain in sync with the market for now, generally speaking.  With that in mind, we will continue to stay [members-only text] for the time being considering the market remains in both short and medium term consolidation ranges, the newest of which now sits between the [members-only text] low and the [members-only text] high.  Beyond that we still have the main [members-only text] trading range, which until broken will continue to define the overall market conditions.
​
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​
​
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 4/19/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 4/18/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 4/11/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [UPDATED on 4/3/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for April 14, 2017

4/14/2017

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Market Commentary:

The choppy conditions have intensified over the past 24 hours, as has the spread between Bitfinex and the other major Western exchanges.  USD withdrawals continue to be suspended due to a blockage of wire transfers by US-based bank Wells Fargo, which is causing a mini panic buying spree in order to get capital out.  While this is not the fault of Bitfinex, it is troubling nonetheless. Adding to the uncertainty are the technicals which continue to paint a murky picture given many timeframe discrepancies that are resulting in mixed trading signals depending on vantage point.  

While we continue to lean
[members-only text] from a longer term perspective, it looks to us like we could be in store for additional [members-only text] once the current countertrend bounce has completed.  A move back down to test the lower half of the previously discussed weekly pennant formation would likely recharge the indicators on all timeframes, and would set the stage for a move up to [members-only text]. We will be ready and waiting with dry powder for the final leg of the correction (if we get it).


4-Hour Chart:

We want to finish off this week with the 4-hour chart seeing as though it has been fairly accurate in terms of signals recently.  We can see that price has dipped further into the upper demand area following a test and failure at the broken 50 SMA earlier in the week, although we seem to be finding some support at the top of the still bullish Ichimoku Cloud now.  Also note that SCMR is trying to paint a [members-only text] candle now, however it is surrounded by [members-only text] and the [members-only text].  Additionally, new dynamic resistance is now painting around [members-only text] and we have a new, yet minor, supply area between [members-only text].  

Moving on to momentum and volume, things appear to be getting better although not quite at the point of reversal.  We can see that Willy and RSI are bouncing but remain in solid downtrends, the Stochastic still has a bit of room to run to the downside, and MACD remains below the zeroline (although we do have a small bull div working now).  Additionally, as previously mentioned the 50 SMA has been broken to the downside and the EMA's are now bearish and heading lower (about to cross the 50 SMA as well), all while the 200 SMA continues to flatten out around 1115 $.  The fact that price is now caught between the 50 and 200 SMA's, in addition to now bearish near term market structure, has us wanting to
[members-only text] for the time being.  Finally, volume indications remain mixed with sellers dominating the last few bars as price heads back down into a fairly large volume profile notch, although the A/D line is still signaling that the longer term bull market remains intact.
Daily Chart:

We return to the daily chart today for a final look at the medium term setup for this week.  Here too market structure has shifted to bearish, at least short term, following a failure to break into the ATH supply area.  This is also where the [members-only text] zone sat, so it makes sense that sellers would become more active at those levels.  That said, things don't look as bad as they perhaps should considering that SCMR is still painting [members-only text] candles (no [members-only text] yesterday), there still isn't any new [members-only text] to speak of, and price is already finding near term support in the upper demand area and around the EMA's (which are still bullish btw).  We can also see that the Ichimoku Cloud remains bullish despite some recent contraction, and volume profile is looking better than it has in a long time (albeit more work still needs to be done to the downside).

In terms of momentum, we are on the right track but nowhere near the goal of recharging the oscillators.  Willy is just now topping out in overbought territory, RSI never made it but looks heavy regardless, the Stochastic has already rolled over, MACD is about to cross the zeroline, and PPO is still flashing weak sell signals.  While all of this may sound pretty dire, what it says to us is that a continuation to the downside is probably in order to establish a higher low and fully recharge momentum (a good thing in the context of the long germ uptrend).  Given where the Ichimoku Cloud sits, as well as where the shorter term moving averages are on the 6-hour chart above, we still are interested in
[members-only text] in order to try to catch a countertrend bounce.  Having said that, we will not be taking larger longer term positions until we get down closer to the [members-only text] area.
Market Summary:

For the first time in awhile we are expecting a rather uneventful weekend in terms of directionality. While there very well could be sporadic rangy volatility, we think that generally speaking the market will try to grind sideways as bulls and bears battle it out over near term support and resistance.  For the time being the broad trading range appears to be between [members-only text], and we think it will hold, however if not it seems more likely that the market breaks down rather than up.  A move below the 1141 $ lows would likely put a bullseye on our still intact VST ProTrade entry area now sitting between [members-only text].  

Hopefully next week we can gleen more clarity on both the technical and fundamental fronts, but until then we are beholden to the whims of a currently illiquid market.
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​

Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 4/14/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 4/13/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 4/11/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [UPDATED on 4/3/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for April 10, 2017

4/10/2017

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Market Commentary:

Another weekend, another strong performance by bitcoin in terms of price.  Lingering uncertainty regarding the implications of the ASICBOOT controversy was unable to deter the bulls from pushing through the psychologically significant 1200 $ level, although we will admit that the recent Bitfinex fiat withdrawal issues could be assisting price to the upside for the time being (hence the 10 - 20 $ premium on Finex lately).  That said, we still think the majority of the action we are currently seeing is technically-driven, meaning that the charts will remain our most prescient guide as we traverse the second trading week of April.

While we are not expecting anything spectacular from a price action perspective either to the upside or the downside, at least not for now, we do think that the possibility of a continuation up into the
[members-only text] prior to a more substantial pullback remains good.  Given the current fundamental and technical conditions we would be happy for an opportunity to get more long at lower levels such as the low [members-only text], which is now strong support.  For more granularity, let's move on to the charts...


6-Hour Chart:

We return to the 6-hour chart today to start the week given it remains the most conclusive shorter term chart we have.  Notice that price is still up in a [members-only text] zone, although much like the last time we were in an [members-only text] the market is simply treading water within it rather correcting below it.  We can also see that SCMR is back to painting [members-only text] candles today following a a few small [members-only text] bars from over the weekend, which actually ended up creating new multi-week dynamic support on the [members-only text].  Combine this with still [members-only text] market structure, a newly bullish Ichimoku Cloud, stacking EMA's, and a 50 and 200 SMA which are about to cross (golden cross) as they continue to reverse back to the upside and it looks to us like the bias remains firmly bullish for the time being.  

With that said, there are still some warning signs as far as momentum and volume are concerned considering Willy and the Stochastic remain officially overbought, RSI is bearishly divergent, MACD has completely flatlined, and PPO is neutral.  Additionally, trading volumes remain anemic, the A/D line is now
[members-only text], and volume profile is still relatively porous below the market (and we are out of the [members-only text] currently).  Seeing as though we now have strong dynamic support building at [members-only text], a move below that level over the next 24 hours seems unlikely, however even if the market breaks down there are still multiple areas of support that should attract buyers such as the broken triangle trendline, the upper supply area, the Ichimoku Cloud, and longer term SMA's.  For these reasons we want to remain [members-only text], but we also want to stay patient given we are currently in the VST Long ProTrade on the breakout above [members-only text] (which is our new breakeven stoploss level).
Daily Chart:

One more look at the daily chart before moving on to the longer term charts over the next few days and we can see that the symmetrical triangle has already been broken to the upside, although price is still inside the [members-only text] zone off of the ATH's from last month and is close to the upper supply area.  Here too we have new [members-only text] building as well, although not quite as impressive looking on this timeframe admittedly, all relevant moving averages still confirming the bull market, an A/D line that remains encouraging, and an Ichimoku Cloud that continues to stay positive.  

On the other hand, momentum could definitely use a recharge soon considering the Stochastic is now pinned in officially overbought territory, Willy is close to overbought, RSI is lagging, MACD is rolling over, and PPO just started flashing weak sell signals.  Granted we could be back in an environment in which overbought momentum oscillators are indicating strength as opposed to exhaustion, however even then we think a selloff prior to new ATH's is a pretty good bet (one that
[members-only text]).  Overall we think the medium term technicals are still supportive of higher prices, especially in light of the fundamental developments over the past week.
Market Summary:

Seeing as though we are currently in the VST ProTrade breakout play, we are in wait and see mode for the time being.  While the position is small, is it enough to keep us in the game in case prices do indeed continue up into the more significant [members-only text] resistance area where our exit target sits.  If not, we will get stopped around breakeven which will preserve capital so that we can redeploy it, and more, at lower and more favorable levels.  If not, we'll try yet another breakout play on a move above the [members-only text] resistance region.

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Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 4/10/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

1b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ACTIVE; ENTERED on 4/9/2017]**:  We will stay in the [members-only text] position off of the [members-only text] level with a stop at [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 4/10/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 4/6/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [UPDATED on 4/3/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
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Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for April 7, 2017

4/7/2017

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**Premium members see live trades, complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
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​

Market Commentary:

As the market continues to try to price in the implications of the ASICBOOST scandal, bullish bias has persisted in the face of strong overhead resistance and near term overbought momentum. This being the case, and given our fundamental commentary yesterday, we will stay focused on the technicals today especially seeing as though there are some very interesting things to discuss.  For the time being it appears as though price wants to stay within the [members-only text] range until the shorter term charts get cleaned up a bit, however we must admit that the odds of a breakout above [members-only text] at some point over the weekend continue to increase with each passing hour sans a more legitimate selloff.  Pressure seems to be building for something, and for the time being it feels like that something is a [members-only text].

That being said, we are not expecting a move much above the
[members-only text] area, at least not over the next few days, given the remaining uncertainty surrounding the bitcoin mining situation. If/when we get more clarity on that then the market could try to test ATH levels, but until then we will be relying on the technicals as a guide for near term price action until further notice (and they are saying that a modicum of caution is still warranted).


4-Hour Chart:

As we head into the weekend with price struggling to get back above the 1200 $ level, we want to zoom in slightly via the 4-hour chart which is actually showing some very interesting signals emerging.  First of all, it should come as no surprise that the market is pausing at current levels given we are right at the medium term triangle downtrend line, as well as at the bottom of the main [members-only text] zone, and we are now outside of what remains a very thin volume profile value area.  Also note that Willy and the Stochastic are officially overbought, RSI is slightly bearishly divergent, MACD remains anemic, and PPO is already back to painting strong sell signals.  

On the other hand, the EMA's are still stacking to the upside and the 50 SMA has crossed above the 200 SMA (golden cross) while said 200 continues to try to reverse back to the upside. Additionally, SCMR is
[members-only text] despite recent [members-only text], dynamic support continues to build around [members-only text] and [members-only text], and the Ichimoku Cloud has twisted back to bullish and is expanding quite rapidly.  Finally, the A/D line remains in a healthy and steady uptrend that continues to indicate that the bulls are maintaining the upper hand despite being so close to significant resistance.  

While we think that the market could continue to tread water between
[members-only text] for awhile, we also think that a move a bit higher into the [members-only text] zone is very possible over the course of this weekend.  If not, and the market breaks down below near term trendline support around [members-only text], then we should get a shot at one of the [members-only text] zones shown below.
Daily Chart:

Next week we will revisit the 3-day chart, however we want to stick with the daily for today in order to illustrate how critical of a spot we are at from a medium term perspective.  Price is now right at the triangle downtrend line, which also coincides with the area within both [members-only text] zones, so we are surprised that price hasn't retraced more than it has off of the 1202 $ local high. Also notice that price is awfully close to moving outside of the volume profile value area on what is now a very overbought Stochastic, both of which are some what worrying signals. Speaking of momentum, RSI and Willy have a bit more room to run and PPO is still flashing buy signals, while all relevant moving averages continue to confirm the overall strength of the market. These mixed signals are not making it easy to get a read on the near term action.

Adding to the confusion is the fact that the Ichimoku Cloud is still bullish but is also contracting, the 200 SMA remains in a steady uptrend, the A/D line continues to flatline, and we have historical dynamic support and resistance building both above and below the market that could keep it range bound between
[members-only text] for some time.  While we stated yesterday that we are now more positive on the fundamentals from a medium term perspective than we were previously, we still need to wait for the technicals to recharge and sync up before talking about new ATH's.
Market Summary:

Considering where price currently sits and how stretched the technicals are getting, we would be hesitant to take any substantial positions around current levels.  Not only that, but risk/reward profiles remain unattractive and uncertainty has not dissipated from the news from earlier in the week.  While we are staying neutral and patient on the sidelines for right now, we are leaving open the potential for a [members-only text] play above [members-only text] if it materializes in favorable fashion over the coming days.  Have a great weekend!

**Premium members see live trades, complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
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​
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 4/7/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

1b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [NEW; ISSUED on 4/7/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position on a move to the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 4/6/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 4/6/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [UPDATED on 4/3/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
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Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for April 3, 2017

4/3/2017

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Market Commentary:

So far our call late last week for bullish bias over the course of the weekend has been accurate, and that strength is persisting into the early hours of the first trading week of April as price has pushed up into the 1100's $ on all major exchanges.  Despite the fact that the scaling rhetoric continues to rumble in the background, we think that market participants are still looking past this language given the odds remain in favor of a stalement or compromise as opposed to a hard fork (at least in our opinion).  Additionally, the technicals on a medium term basis continue to look healthy and could very well produce more [members-only text] later this Spring, however the shorter term charts are getting [members-only text] at current levels so we would not be surprised to see a [members-only text] in the not too distant future.


6-Hour Chart:

No reason to mess up a good thing, so we are returning to the 6-hour chart below for another look at the short term setup.  Following a break above the still bearish Ichimoku Cloud, price pushed up into the lower half of the lower [members-only text] zone, as well as lower portion of the newly adjusted supply area, all while SCMR continues to paint [members-only text] candles on what has become downright [members-only text] market structure. Also note that we now have new dynamic support building at multiple levels below the market around the previous local low at [members-only text], as well as at [members-only text] and [members-only text] (the latter of which is the strongest yet).  Additionally, price has recently broken back above the flatlined 200 SMA, which is now ticking up slightly, the EMA's are stacking to the upside, and the 50 SMA is slowly turning higher.

As far as momentum and volume are concerned, it is a mixed bag currently considering Willy and the Stochastic are both officially overbought, RSI continues to lag, MACD is showing a steady bearish divergence, and PPO is back to flashing sell signals (albeit weak ones).  Finally, exchanges volumes still leave much to be desired, however the A/D line remains in a healthy uptrend and price is in a volume profile notch area which could use some extra filling in.  Overall, despite overbought momentum oscillators, the majority of the other technical indications continue to point to slightly more
[members-only text] over the short term, perhaps up into the upper [members-only text] zone around [members-only text], before getting a more substantial pullback to test longer term support.
Daily Chart:

Moving on to the trusty daily chart we can see that the broad symmetrical triangle remains intact as price pushes up into the upper half of it once again.  The rally today has turned the SCMR candle [members-only text] as price moves definitively above the still bullish Ichimoku Cloud, although we still don't have any new [members-only text] below the market.  Also notice that the EMA's are very close to crossing back over to the upside while the 200 SMA continues its slow trend higher, this still confirming the longer term bull market.  As far as momentum goes, all of the oscillators remain supportive of more upside other than the Stochastic which is already close to officially overbought, MACD is confirming the move with a rise above the zeroline, and PPO is somehow still painting strong medium term buy signals.

On the other hand, volume has not been at that impressive recently, at least not relatively speaking, and volume profile remains fairly thin around current levels despite still being within the value area. Lastly, we can see that price is now in the lower supply area, near a historical
[members-only text] level, at Ichimoku Cloud signal line resistance, and just below the [members-only text] zone and triangle downtrend line.  All of these will provide selling pressure as they are reached.  Putting all of this together confirms our suspicions from above that the market likely continues [members-only text] into more significant resistance over the near term prior to correcting back down to the [members-only text] consolidation triangle.
Market Summary:

As price currently dances around the 1120's and 30's $ in what appears to be yet another small bull flag-type formation, it seems as though near term [members-only text] continues to build in the market.  Granted we may be close to the FOMO phase of this particular move, implying an end to it sooner rather than later, however this final leg up could very well push price into the [members-only text] area.  If not, and the bulls fail to break convincingly back above the [members-only text] high in the near future, then perhaps this move will have run its course and we are back to choppy bearishly biased market conditions. Having said that, for the time being, and as long as [members-only text] can hold, then the bulls remain in control.

**Premium members see live trades, complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge: 
subscribe today
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​

Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 4/3/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 4/3/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 4/3/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [UPDATED on 4/3/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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