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BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS​

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Bitcoin Price Report for March 31, 2017

3/31/2017

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Market Commentary:

Bitcoin continues to behave well from a technical perspective, likely aided by the decrease in caustic rhetoric throughout the week regarding the "scaling" issue.  For now, we see no reason why this can't persist into the weekend, which is a positive sign for the bulls considering the technicals we will discuss on the charts below.  While we are not expecting a FOMO driven rally to new regional, or even local highs, however we do think the bias will stay with the bulls seeing as though the bears have had ample opportunity to push price back below 1000 $ over the past 24 hours and have yet to do so.  

More generally speaking, as we move into what will be the first week of April next week we think that the broader triangle consolidation will continue to develop despite what could be a more [members-only text] from a fundamental perspective.  Given these potential conditions, we are even more adamant about [members-only text] so as to not miss what could be a [members-only text] in the not too distant future.


6-Hour Chart:

We want to finish off this week returning to the trusty 6-hour chart, a recent favorite.  We can see how well the market is responding to the technicals on this timeframe given price continues to hug the 50 SMA, as well as the shorter term EMA's now.  Also note that recent bullish market structure and price action has led to a persistence of [members-only text], although we still don't have any new [members-only text] building so price remains more susceptible to a selloff than it would be otherwise.  Additionally, price is now trying to break through the volume profile PoC, which would be a bullish indication if it can do so, and the A/D line continues to show buyers are still overwhelming sellers during this consolidation.

As far as momentum is concerned, things looks better than they did yesterday but are still not in prime position for a true breakout rally.  Notice that while the Stochastic is now out of overbought territory and MACD is holding its zeroline, Willy remains extended and RSI is still treading water in no man's land. Throw in a 200 SMA that continues to flatten out above the market around areas of strong technical confluence in terms of resistance, and we think that while the [members-only text] into the low [members-only text] at some point relatively soon, a true [members-only text] is still some ways off.
Daily Chart:

The recent near term range contraction has kept the daily chart from evolving too much in terms of the technicals, although there are a few things that bear mentioning today.  We can see that SCMR is [members-only text] despite the [members-only text] a few days ago, as well as price breaking back into the still bullish Ichimoku Cloud.  Speaking of which, the Cloud signal lines have crossed back to bearish ("bearish T/K cross), however price has failed to react much so far which tells us that this very well could be a temporary situation.  Additionally, price is now pinned between the 9 and 18 EMA's, as well as the lower supply area and upper demand area, so all things considered it appears as though indecision remains the dominant force in the market for the time being (generally speaking).

On the other hand, the momentum oscillators remain supportive of more upside over the short term considering Willy and RSI still have plenty of room to run higher, the Stochastic is confirming recent relative strength, MACD has crossed back above the zeroline, and PPO is still flashing strong buy signals.  We think that if price can continue to hold the [members-only text] that was painted [members-only text], then there is a good chance of testing the [members-only text] resistance area, if not slightly higher, in the not too distant future (despite still being in a broader consolidative phase).
Market Summary:

As this week has progressed, we have slowly but surely become more positive on the market due purely to the technicals that have been emerging.  This being the case, it seems to us as though the path of least resistance, at least over the course of this weekend, is for price to [members-only text] the market.  That being said, the market also still remains in a longer term consolidation period until further notice, so keeping hopes and emotions in check at this time is critical.

GLGT!
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Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [NEW; ISSUED on 3/31/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 3/31/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 3/29/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [NEW;ISSUED on 3/28/2017]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
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Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for March 27, 2017

3/27/2017

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​
Market Commentary:

Quite the dichotomous weekend we just had.  Late Friday the market began to spiral lower on rising fears of a hard fork following a Medium post by a BU dev that led to numerous speculations.  This is conjunction with a short term technical picture that had deteriorated significantly throughout the day led to a breakdown below the key 944 $ support level, and eventually a tag below 900 $ reaching a local low on Stamp of 891 $ before all was said and done.  On Saturday the market slowly tried to recover, albeit it in rather unimpressive fashion, bouncing around the low to mid-900's $ as players continued to try to decipher the implications and probabilities regarding the current situation.  As we moved into the latter half of the weekend, however, spirits began to pick up given certain key metrics used as data in the scaling debate turned back in favor of Core/status quo, which gave traders some cover to push prices higher.  This allowed the market to move up to test the still psychologically important 1000 $ level, which was just taken out moments ago.

Now we find ourselves sitting around the 1000 $ level entering this new week, what is the final week of March.  There is nothing notable about this time of year from a seasonality perspective, which means for the time being we are likely going to be trading mostly on the technicals seeing as though the fundamentals remain mixed.  We would not be at all surprised to see the market continue to consolidate between [members-only text] over the short to medium term as the longer term charts continue to recharge, especially since the price action over the past 24 hours has been very indicative of consolidative conditions.


6-Hour Chart:

The 6-hour chart below remains a mess technically speaking, although things admittedly look better than they did late last week.  We can see that price found a local low at the bottom of the lower demand area on multiple positive volume and momentum indications.  Notice that trading volumes became bullishly divergent while price was falling well outside of the volume profile value area, and the A/D line never took that much of a hit either.  Also note that the stochastic got back down into officially oversold territory but on a bullish divergence, Willy and RSI also both painted bullish divs although not in oversold territory, MACD was divergent as well and is now above the zeroline, and PPO is still flashing strong buy signals. Now the oscillators are [members-only text] with some [members-only text] as well. 

On the other hand, price action is trying to turn positive once again following a rather confusing SCMR [members-only text] setup complete with a [members-only text] and two [members-only text], however price continues to struggle to move back out of the lower demand areas despite these signals.  Additionally, resistance in the form of SMA's, dynamic resistance, supply areas, and [members-only text] zones all sit at multiple levels above the market so there is alot of wood to chop for bulls to get back into an uptrend, not to mention the fact that the Ichimoku Cloud is still bearish and expanding to the downside.  Overall we think the market may be ready to [members-only text] for the next week or two, at least, although very short term it looks like more upside is in the cards.
Daily Chart:

Moving on to the daily chart, we can see that once again price found support along an adjusted medium term uptrend line which has led to a local low and a [members-only text] candle.  Obviously we have seen this movie before, in fact just last week, however given the completion of an ABC correction paired with oversold momentum we think that this one could have more legs than its predecessors.  Notice how stretched Willy and the Stochastic are to the downside while RSI and MACD both paint small bullish divergences.  Additionally, PPO is still flashing strong buy signals, the 200 SMA remains in its uptrend and has yet to be breached, and despite being pierced on the lows the Ichimoku Cloud remains generally bullish.

Conversely, volume profile remains porous in many regions both above and below the market, reinforcing the notion that more price discovery is needed in this [members-only text] range prior to resolving one way or the other later this year.  While we still think the eventually resolution will be [members-only text], we need to temper our [members-only text] given we could be stuck around current levels for quite awhile.  That said, there will still be opportunities in the market, they will just be slightly less favorable and slightly more risky than we have been used to over the past 4 - 6 months.
Market Summary:

As previously mentioned, it looks as though there is going to be at least a minor continuation to the upside now that price has broken back above 1000 $.  If price can breakthrough the [members-only text] level then it looks to us like the next line of resistance is around [members-only text], and above that is [members-only text] and [members-only text], although we would be surprised to see price get much above there given significant resistance zones all the way from [members-only text].  We would like need to see a pullback prior to testing those upper regions of the trading range, else we would want to considering getting short.  

We also want to mention that we think that we will get another chance to buy [members-only text], at least on a [members-only text], so we want to maintain patience for the time being.  There is an area of longer term support that remains in the [members-only text] that we think ultimately presents the best opportunity, so we hope we get a shot at it.  If not, then the market is even more bullish than we suspected and we will be looking for shorter term setups at key near term support levels.
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​
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term**:  No VST ProTrades at this time due to [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 3/27/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 3/27/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ENTERED @ 480 $; CLOSED @ 944 $ for +96.67% PROFIT]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal
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Bitcoin Price Report for March 24, 2017

3/24/2017

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​
Market Commentary:

Fundamental uncertainty continues to take its toll on the bitcoin markets as price has broken back below the key 1000 $ level over the past few hours.  Generally speaking, we remain in the camp that a hard fork is unlikely, at least over the next few months, while we also think that SegWit is likely doomed as well (at least this year).  This leaves us with the status quo for the foreseeable future, a fate that many bitcoiners would gladly accept, however the fact that the infighting, propaganda, and threats will likely persist throughout this stalemate period has us concerned about how the market will act over the coming months.  For the time being we are still of the mind that an extended consolidation, which we are currently already in, is the most probable outcome over the short to medium term, although now we are thinking it might be in an even broader range than we originally thought (perhaps extending lower than initially expected).

Having said all of that, we did enter the VST ProTrade 1(b) yesterday at 1012 $ due purely to the near term technical setup and the attractive risk/reward profile, however that trade was already stopped out at the 986 $ stop level.  It seems as though the current conditions are simply too [members-only text], despite how attractive they may seem at the time.  Going forward, at least throughout the weekend, we are moving to the sidelines to watch the action from a place of neutrality.


6-Hour Chart:

Today we shift back to the 6-hour chart where we can see that the technicals have turned more negative since our update yesterday, especially in terms of market structure and price action. Notice that SCMR is back to painting [members-only text] following the inability for bulls to paint a [members-only text], which ultimately led to a failure to break above the EMA's which has now led to new dynamic resistance being built around the [members-only text] local high from yesterday.  Also note that the Ichimoku Cloud remains bearish, as do the aforementioned EMA's, the 50 SMA is about to cross below the 200 SMA (death cross), and the higher low from yesterday has now been taken out which is discouraging for bulls to be sure.  

On the other hand, momentum and volume don't look all that bad, interestingly enough, which was the main reason why were trying to stay in the VST ProTrade (to no avail).  As far as momentum is concerned, things are certainly getting more stretched to the downside considering the Stochastic is officially oversold, Willy is [members-only text], RSI and MACD are both trying to paint bullish divergences, and PPO is still flashing weak buy signals.  Additionally, price is now way outside of the [members-only text], the A/D line continues to stay steady at current levels despite the recent drop in price, and sell volumes continue to wane.  Throw in the fact that we are inside the near term OTE long zone as well as the secondary lower demand area, and we still think there is a decent chance at a small bounce soon even though we are not in a trade.
Daily Chart:

Moving on to the daily chart and we can see that price is currently at some fairly critical levels in terms of support, which is why we have decided to move to the sidelines for all [members-only text]. We can see that price is trying to hold the lower triangle trendline, as well as the top of the still bullish Ichimoku Cloud, however [members-only text] SCMR candles and [members-only text] are making that a difficult task.  Also note that the EMA's are now stacking to the downside here as well, which means the market will have steady near term resistance to deal with until we get a more convincing reversal back to the upside.

As far as momentum and volume go, things remain oversold on the momentum oscillators, MACD is trying to paint a bullish divergence, PPO is flashing strong buy signals, and the A/D line remains fairly flat at current levels.  Additionally, sell volumes continue to diminish, the 200 SMA remains supportive of the longer term bull market, and we still have a more substantial trendline to watch down in the [members-only text].  Again, from a technical perspective it looks like the market may be be due for a small bounce from current levels, although the fundamental uncertainties present in the marketplace right now could very well be too much to overcome for the time being which is why we think [members-only text].
Market Summary:

As we settle into what could be the "new normal" of a persistent standoff between the two currently warring factions of bitcoin over the next few months, we need to be prepared to be [members-only text] so as not to get chopped up in what we think will be fairly brutal trading conditions throughout the [members-only text].  Additionally, the campaign by many large bitcoin holders right now to punish rogue miners by dumping coins and putting pressure on price remains in full swing, which tells us that players will likely be more inclined to [members-only text], at least for now. This means that bias likely remains in the [members-only text] until further notice.
​
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​
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ENTERED @ 1012 $; CLOSED @ 986 $]**:  We were stopped out of our LONG position off of the 1012 $ level at our intended stop of 986 $ for -2.57%.

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 3/24/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 3/24/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 3/24/2017]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal
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Bitcoin Price Report for March 20, 2017

3/20/2017

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​
Market Commentary:

Thankfully the market took a respite from the recent volatile downward price action throughout most of the weekend following a local low of 944 $ which was put in early on Saturday morning. After that low, price proceeded to tread water for awhile before heading back above the 1000 $ level where it spent the better part of Sunday chopping around.  While this brief period of relative calm in terms of the technicals was welcome, things weren't as sanguine on the fundamental front considering BU seems to be intensifying and accelerating their campaign despite the recent speedbumps (read: bugs) in the code. Exchanges have even begun to release statements of intent and procedure in case of a hard fork of the network, which tells us that we are as close as ever to a contentious split.  Having said that, even at these increased odds we still put the probability of a HF in the [members-only text] area, meaning we still think it is more than twice as likely that we don't end up with two coins in the end.  In light of all of the controversy, let's see what the charts are saying may be in store for this week.


6-Hour Chart:

Back to the 6-hour chart today as we want to provide some analytical continuity regarding the shorter term outlook heading into this new and uncertain week.  Notice that price was able to take out the ETF rejection lows on Saturday, albeit not by much, although volume was slightly lower on this recent move than it was on the previous one.  We can also see that support was found in the lower demand area, the upper part of the [members-only text], and around [members-only text]. Speaking of SCMR, note that we are currently trying to put in the first [members-only text] since the middle of last week following a nice looking [members-only text] coming out of the demand area, a sign that there could be some additional [members-only text] before running into more substantial resistance.  This is being confirmed by the momentum indicators which all appear to have bottomed out for the time being and are starting to move out of oversold territory, however the EMA's are now bearish, the 50 SMA is rolling over to the downside, and the 200 SMA remains broken.  Again, we think most of these signals are hinting at more [members-only text] over the early part of this week, perhaps all the way up to the congestion areas between [members-only text], however still bearish market structure and a mixed longer term outlook are keeping us [members-only text] for the time being.
Daily Chart:

Moving on to the daily chart, we can see that things make a bit more sense when put into this context. One of the main features to note is that support in the form of the upper demand area, [members-only text] zone, Ichimoku Cloud, and medium term trendline held on the selloff early in the weekend which tells us that bulls are still interested in buying if the price is right.  This is also inline with our call for an extended consolidation, likely within the symmetrical triangle which has now been confirmed with another touchpoint, that could easily stretch out into the [members-only text] time period if the Core/BU situation remains at an impasse.  The implication of this forecast is that there could indeed be more [members-only text] from current levels, although we think it ends near the [members-only text] and [members-only text] zone prior to rolling back over to the downside to [members-only text]. This hypothesis seems to be being confirmed by the momentum oscillators which are near term oversold but are not yet sending buy signals (other than PPO), and the A/D line which has taken it's first noticeable tick down since late January.  Overall, we think the price action over the weekend reinforced the idea that we are now in a broad and choppy consolidation phase until more clarity is received regarding the scaling debate.  Until then, it looks like "buy the dips, sell the rips" remains the name of the game for now.
Market Summary:

We must admit that the market held up better than we expected it to going into the weekend, especially considering how uncertain things are from a fundamental perspective right now.  Many leading bitcoin public figures have come out and said that they have liquidated long bitcoin positions in order to preserve capital in case of a major dump catalyzed by a hard fork.  While we understand and sympathize with this sentiment, we think it is a bit premature seeing as though we are still pinning the odds of it materializing at way less than 50% which makes fully moving to fiat at this time quite the gamble in our opinion.  If it begins to look like BU is losing steam, which we can now gauge partially via Bitfinex's new BCC and BCU markets and partially by nodes and hashrate, then price would likely rise substantially.  Conversely, if things stay the way they are or get even more heated, then we [members-only text] until further notice.
​
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​
​Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 3/13/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [ISSUED on 3/20/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 3/20/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 3/17/2017]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for March 17, 2017

3/17/2017

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​
Market Commentary:

We are looking forward to the end of this week seeing as though it has been pretty brutal for long-biased traders such as ourselves.  Not that we can complain about booking a 20+% profit on the medium term trade yesterday, which materialized in less than a week, but the past few days have been rough as the market has clawed a small, yet noticeable, portion of our winnings from the ETF dip trade.  Now that we are back to [members-only text] on all timeframes other than long term, we can be patient and wait for the market to settle into a more defined range.  As we mentioned earlier in the week, we now think there is a fairly good chance of entering the first extended consolidation of 2017 as the market tries to price in what will likely be an absence of an ETF product this year, a prolonging of the scaling debate, and a global macro environment that could see rising rates for the foreseeable future.  While we generally remain [members-only text] over the longer term, we warrant caution on both sides of the market for the time being considering the state of the technicals we will now discuss below.


6-Hour Chart:

We return to the 6-hour chart today for a slightly broader view of the short to medium term outlook. We can see that indeed a market structure top was put in above 1200 $, which is where [members-only text] is now painting, and which also led to the selloff and subsequent breakdown below the EMA's, the 50 SMA, and volume profile PoC.  Not only that, but during the London session the market was taken down below 1100 $ briefly which broke the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud, pierced the 200 SMA, and tested the medium term uptrend line, all of which held eventually but are now in question in terms of sustainability.  On the other hand, price is coming down into a VP notch area which needs to be filled, price was rejected by the upper OTE long zone (pretty much at the 61.8% Fib), and momentum is getting close to the point where it could bounce (and is). Additionally, the A/D line is actually ticking higher now and we do have a bullish volume divergence that could signal that bears are running out of steam already over the near term.  Despite the fact that there are some signs emerging [members-only text] may be in the cards over the weekend, which may be starting to play out right now, we think there are simply too many mixed technical signals right now to be confident in a move back to the [members-only text] in the very near future.
Daily Chart:

The daily chart seems to be confirming our suspicion that an extended sideways consolidation may be the best way to recharge the technicals while maintaining a longer term bullish bias.  We can see below that yesterday's SCMR candle ended up being [members-only text] but did [members-only text], and now we are getting a [members-only text] that has also been flashing [members-only text] throughout the morning. Additionally, momentum is not yet fully recharged seeing as though Willy and the Stochastic are both still hovering close to overbought territory, and we still have some room to run to the downside prior to getting back into the meat of the volume profile setup.  Conversely, price is currently finding support in the [members-only text] zone and bottom part of the upper demand area, the Ichimoku Cloud remains bullish (as does the T/K cross), and the A/D line is still steady which tells us that the selling has not been as intense as perceived.  While we think that the market could tread water around current levels for bit, perhaps through the weekend, we also think there is a pretty good chance that the market heads [members-only text] over the coming week/s in order to test the light blue demand area, the Ichimoku Cloud and OTE zone tops, the upper trendline, historical dynamic support, and the ETF spike lows which all sit in the [members-only text] area depending on when we get there.  We would be [members-only text] of that area if given the opportunity.
Market Summary:

All thing considered, we think that the current rally up to the 1150 $ area is simply a near term oversold countertrend bounce back to the upside prior to a flatline around these levels or retest of the [members-only text].  We do not think that the clean-up period is complete by any stretch, which means we are likely in for choppy conditions over the next few weeks (at least).  For now we are expecting a [members-only text] formation to materialize as the consolidation plays out, with an eventual resolution to the [members-only text], which implies a "buy the dips, sell the rips" mentality until that occurs.  That said, most traders, including us, will remain [members-only text]l until things become a bit more clear regarding where we might be headed over the short to medium term, so range scalping might be the way to go for those who want to continue playing despite the choppy environment.
​
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​Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 3/13/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [ENTERED on 3/16/2017; CLOSED on 3/17/2017]**:  We were stopped out of our position off of the [members-only text] level at [members-only text].  No new ST trades at this time.

3a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [ISSUED on 3/17/2017]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 3/17/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 3/17/2017]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
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Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for March 13, 2017

3/13/2017

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Market Commentary:

ETF?  What ETF?  Bitcoin is once again exhibiting its honeybadger-like qualities as the dump from the ETF rejection on Friday afternoon has been almost completely wiped out by a steady move higher over the course of the weekend.  This actually makes sense to us given our opinion that an approval of the ETF would have been good for the price near term but bad medium to long term, while a rejection would be bad for near term price action but good for the longer term fundamentals.  Apparently the market is coming to this conclusion as well considering that as we price in the event the higher price rises. While we remain generally bullish on the market going forward into early Spring, price is running up against some short term technical resistance so a [members-only text] would not surprise us one bit.  

Speaking of the technicals, lets return to the 6-hour chart below for a look at the near term setup where we can see that price is currently pushing up against the top of the still intact symmetrical triangle despite volatile spikes both above and below it last Friday.  Also note that we are getting awfully close to the upper supply area, the Stochastic is almost back to overbought, and MACD looks like it wants to roll over soon.  On the other hand, Willy and RSI still have some room to run to the upside, PPO is still flashing weak buy signals, the A/D line has started moving higher again, and SCMR is back to [members-only text] following both a [members-only text] and a [members-only text] over the weekend.  Finally, price is already back above the 50 SMA, above volume profile PoC, and the EMA's have crossed over back to bullish, all of which hint at more [members-only text].  All things considered, we think a pullback into the [members-only text] is possible over the course of this week, however it might end up being more shallow than that given how bullish things are looking on the longer term charts.  

With that in mind, notice on the daily chart below that the ETF rejection spike actually created new multi-month SCMR dynamic support at the [members-only text], but that the real support came in within the upper demand area where two [members-only text] candles painted as well as a [members-only text].  Now SCMR has [members-only text], we are back above the EMA's as well as the still bullish Ichimoku Cloud signal lines, market structure is returning to [members-only text], and all relevant trendlines and SMA's remain intact and supportive telling us that the [members-only text] for the time being. Additionally, momentum has recharged nicely considering all of the oscillators are trying to bottom around their midpoints and reverse higher, MACD is about to break above its zeroline, and PPO is finally back to neutral.  The only things that currently give us pause from a medium to long term perspective are the fact that the A/D line has been rather anemic recently, and that price is already back in the upper supply area which should invite some sellers back to the party in the not too distant future.  Having said that, we see no reason to close the new MT ProTrade that was opened [members-only text] so we will remain patient through any potential near term volatility in order to capture more [members-only text].

Overall, we must admit that the rebound from Friday has been much more impressive and encouraging than we thought possible late last week, which tells us that the bull market is likely far from over.  While we are not expecting a straight line to the upside over the near term, we do think that pullbacks are still buyable due to the bullish bias that the technicals continue to exhibit.
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Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 3/13/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [ENTERED @ 1137 on 3/8/2017; CLOSED @ 1200 on 3/10/2017 for +5.54% PROFIT]**:  We have closed our LONG off of the 1137 $ entry level at 1200 $ for +5.54%.

2b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [ISSUED on 3/13/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [ACTIVE; ENTERED on 3/10/2017]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 3/10/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 3/6/2017]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for March 10, 2017

3/10/2017

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Market Commentary:

Paralysis has beset the bitcoin markets over the past 24 hours as uncertainty regarding the ETF decision continues to rise.  Many participants think a decision will come down today which is why the recent flatline has been so pronounced, however we are skeptical as to whether the SEC will deliver their decision today given price action is not signaling anything imminent yet.  Ultimately, the SEC has until COB (close of business) Monday to make their announcement which potentially leaves a weekend of speculation and indecision to deal with prior to a resolution next week.  All of that aside, the technicals are looking better than they did earlier in the week which reinforces our thinking that [members-only text] upon rejection but upside will be [members-only text] given approval.  For more clarity, lets move on to the charts below before heading into what could be a strange weekend for bitcoin traders.

Back to the 6-hour chart as it remains the most relevant in terms of the near term forecast.  We can see below that after a [members-only text] candle painted yesterday price action began to go neutral, however we still [members-only text] so we don't want to get too excited just yet.  Also note that price seems to be following the top of the Ichimoku Cloud higher and is back above volume profile PoC, although resistance in the form of the 18 EMA and the Tenkan signal line are both putting a cap on price around current levels.  Additionally, momentum has shifted into a neutral environment as well considering Willy, RSI, and the Stochastic are all flatlining in no man's land, MACD is back to its zeroline, the A/D is steady as she goes, and PPO is still flashing strong buys signals.  For the time being it appears as though the market will continue to consolidate in [members-only text] until we hear about the ETF, that said there seems to be a slight upside bias which could take price up into the [members-only text] over the weekend given there is no decision until Monday.  Regardless, we expect price to stay in the triangle over the next few days (barring a decision on the ETF).

We finish off this week in bitcoin by revisiting the daily chart once again.  Notice that here too we have a [members-only text] candle that was able to paint yesterday, and now we are back to neutral while dynamic support returns to the [members-only text] area.  We can also see that the A/D line remains healthy, exchanges volumes have put in a small bullish divergence, and the EMA's are still holding as support telling us that the bias does indeed remain to the upside for now.  On the other hand, volume profile remains thin, momentum has not yet recharged as much as we had hoped, and more significant support continues to sit down in the [members-only text] areas.  Despite the fact that we think [members-only text] will hold even on an ETF rejection, we must be prepared for a spike down into these lower zones just in case things get momentarily out of control.  In other words, we want to be ready to [members-only text] if presented the opportunity.

Generally speaking, we think that neutrality is the most appropriate positioning going into one of the most unique trading weekends in bitcoin's history, other than our ST ProTrade which will remain active given a still favorable risk/reward profile.  Taking into account the current fundamental and technical conditions, even slight movements up or down could be wrongly (or rightly) interpreted as insiders acting on unreleased information thus magnifying the intensity of moves as we get closer to the decision. Either that, or price could just continues to tread water around 1200 $ until we get a definitive answer.  Regardless, we feel well-positioned and well-prepared for whatever the market throws at us over the course of the next week or so.
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 3/10/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [ACTIVE; ENTERED on 3/8/2017]**:  We stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 3/10/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 3/10/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 3/6/2017]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for March 6, 2017

3/6/2017

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Market Commentary:

Despite some minor liquidity-driven volatility over the weekend, for the most part the market has been able to consolidate and recharge without much in the way of pullbacks.  A few spikes down into the 1230 - 1240 $ range were all quickly rejected by buyers, and this show of support has led to a renewed sense of confidence amongst the bulls which is pushing price above 1280 $ (which is awfully close to new all time highs).  While we would not be surprised to see the market pause or dip slightly as we near the [members-only text] level for one final fakeout, we think the odds of another [members-only text] are now on the rise considering how well the near term technicals are behaving.  Speaking of which, lets move on to the charts in order to get an idea of how this rather unique week in Bitcoinland might play out from a price perspective.

We start off with a return to the 6-hour chart which remains insightful in terms of the near term outlook. We can see below that a [members-only text] SCMR [members-only text] was unable to allow the sellers to regain control, and now we are back to [members-only text] candles on bullish market structure.  Also note that it appears as though we have yet another ascending triangle (or possibly bullish pennant), a fairly popular and reliable formation over the past few weeks, while strong dynamic support continues to build around the [members-only text] level.  Additionally, the EMA's are now starting to stack to the upside again, the SMA's are still confirming the medium term bull market, and the Ichimoku Cloud is expanding rapidly to the upside. Throw in the fact that all three momentum oscillators have healthily recharged, MACD has found a local bottom, and PPO is back to neutral, and it looks to us like the near term technicals are supportive of [members-only text].

Moving on to the daily chart and not all that much has changed considering the price action over the weekend was relatively benign.  We still have [members-only text] SCMR candles being painted while multi-month dynamic support continues to build between [members-only text].  We can also see that the bullish consolidation formation is even more pronounced here, especially if considered a bullish pennant, which bodes well for higher prices in the not too distant future.  Additionally, the A/D line is still heading slowly higher, market structure remains bullish, and price action looks good given the recent downside rejections below 1250 $.  On the other hand, all of the medium term momentum oscillators, including PPO, are still officially overbought while MACD continues to lose steam, and price is still well outside of the volume profile value area which itself remains thin down to the 1000 $ area.

Although we continue to see some warning signs on the daily chart, mainly in the form of momentum, this has been the case for almost all of 2017 and yet the rally higher has been able to persist in spite of these conditions.  For now, especially considering how strong the shorter term charts are looking, we think the bias remains with the bulls which likely means [members-only text] over the course of this week.
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 3/6/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

1b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ISSUED on 3/6/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position on a [members-only text] of the [members-only text] with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 3/6/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [ISSUED on 3/6/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 3/6/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 3/6/2017]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.*
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for March 3, 2017

3/3/2017

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Market Commentary:

The train to the upside keeps rolling down the tracks as new highs were once again hit during the Asia session, having said that we think that the market is currently looking very stretched from a technical perspective which is why we took off the ST ProTrade at the 1285 $ intended target.  Now that we are back to neutral other than the LT position, we will try to be patient over the course of the weekend in order to try to [members-only text].  If one does not materialize and the market is able to consolidate in sideways fashion before breaking 1300 $, then so be it, however we think a pullback down into the [members-only text] would set the stage for yet another leg to the upside as we head into what has evolved into the most important week for bitcoin at least since the halving.  That being the case, let's move on the the charts to see what we can glean as we head into a rather uncertain weekend trade.

Regarding the technicals, we can see on the 6-hour chart below that SCMR continues to paint [members-only text] candles as price touches new regional and all time highs near the 1300 $ level while dynamic support continues to build at multiple levels between [members-only text].  Also note that market structure remains bullish, the Ichimoku Cloud and associated T/K cross are both still rising, and all moving averages remain supportive of price for the time being.  On the other hand, we are now well outside of the volume profile value area, the A/D line and trading volumes have stalled out, Willy and the Stochastic are officially overbought, RSI is bearishly divergent, and PPO is now flashing weak sell signals.  From a medium term perspective things remain bullishly biased, however over the coming days we think the market could take a step back to test one of the [members-only text] zones shown below.  We would be [members-only text].

Moving on to the daily chart and things remain [members-only text], at least over the medium term, however the candle formations that are currently coming in are less than encouraging considering they appear to be getting rejected by the new highs for the time being despite what are still [members-only text] SCMR candles.  We can also see that momentum is now as overbought as it has been since the first week of January, while the A/D line flattens out much like it has on the 6-hour chart above. Finally, price is way outside of the volume profile value area, well above the Ichimoku Cloud, and fairly extended above the EMA's.  Conversely, market structure remains bullish, strong dynamic support continues to build just below [members-only text], and most indicators are signaling that a pullback is due, but that the bull market is not yet over.  

Again, we think the technicals are telling us to [members-only text] for the time being as price tries to find new levels of very near term support going into a weekend in which anxiety over the ETF decision could make conditions rather choppy.  While we would be [members-only text] at the new VST and ST ProTrade levels listed below, we also might consider yet another [members-only text] so that no matter which direction the market heads over the next few weeks, we will be ready with a strategy to deploy for profit.
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 3/3/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 3/3/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [ENTERED @ 1220 $ on 3/1/2017; CLOSED @ 1285 $ on 3/3/2017 for +5.33% PROFIT]**:  We have closed our LONG position off of the 1220 $ level at the intended target of 1285 $ for 5.33% profit in less than 4 days.

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 2/24/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 2/24/2017]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
​Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for March 1, 2017

3/1/2017

0 Comments

 
Market Commentary:

Despite some to-be-expected volatility around the current breakout, the market looks poised for more gains through the end of this week as some newly emerging technicals indications hint that this could be the beginning of a more substantial move to the upside.  From a fundamental perspective, not all that much has changed recently other than BU losing some steam and the global macro picture getting even more conducive to higher prices, but in general we think this is primarily a technical move.  That being the case, price is acting a bit more irrational around these highs, which is [members-only text], however an adjustment to [members-only text] can keep us in what we think will end up being a [members-only text] throughout the course of the remainder of the week.

Moving on to said technicals, we can see on the 6-hour chart below that the shorter term setup remains in a fairly extended position, however the recent spike through the ATH resistance level and the upper supply area are signs that the bulls remain in control.  This is being confirmed by [members-only text] SCMR candles and bullish market structure, as well as new and strong dynamic support now building around [members-only text].  Additionally, all short and medium term moving averages continue to stack to the upside, the Ichimoku Cloud and T/K cross both remain bullish, and the A/D line is holding steady at elevated levels. On the other hand, all of the momentum oscillators are officially overbought, volumes are unimpressive so far, and we are now even further outside of the volume profile value area than we were yesterday. Given the fact that the only causes for concern right now are the overbought momentum indicators, which can actually be a sign of strength as opposed to exhaustion, we think that the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

Moving on to the daily chart and things get even more encouraging for the bulls, especially due to the newly formed multi-month dynamic support that we are now seeing build between [members-only text], as well as still [members-only text] SCMR candles on the [members-only text].  We can also see that market structure remains bullish, the EMA's and SMA's are all supportive, the Ichimoku Cloud continues its trek higher, and the A/D line is still confirming the upward bias. Conversely, we still have some warning signs as far as momentum goes considering Willy, the Stochastic, and PPO all remain officially overbought while RSI is still painting a small bearish divergence, although MACD continues to hold its own fairly well despite recent near term volatility. Seeing as though the broader consolidation range between 1090 and 1220 $ could not even hold for a full week, we think the bias remains to the upside despite some downside movements over the past few hours.

Generally speaking, we are as [members-only text] from a medium term perspective as we have been all year, however it seems as though the market makers want to washout as many breakout traders as possible before taking the price up to the [members-only text] target area.  We will adjust our stops in order to [members-only text], but if we are not able to then we will be buyers of what small retracement back below [members-only text] we get over the next few days prior to the real rally to new sustainable highs. Overall, things look on track for [members-only text], although we would caution that a blowoff top is possible if FOMO really gets going up into the [members-only text] area going into the ETF decision on March 11.  At that point we would be looking for a retest of the [members-only text] level, but lets not get too ahead of ourselves just yet.
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 3/1/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

1b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ACTIVE; ENTERED on 3/1/2017]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 3/1/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 2/24/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 2/24/2017]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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