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BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS​

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Bitcoin Price Report for January 30, 2017

1/30/2017

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Market Commentary:

Often BBA's forecasts are in the ballpark of reality in terms of actualization over time, however we were right on the money regarding what we expected to be a flat weekend in the markets this time around. Indeed the commencement of the Chinese New Year holidays has drained the market of volume, liquidity, and price action over the past few days, and given the festivities continue through February 2nd we could see the markets remain in limbo until after it's all over.  Having said that, the fact that the bears have not been able to push price lower during this period of stagnation is fairly encourgaing, and there are some minor signals on the near term charts that are shifting our bias to [members-only text] for the time being.  However, we don't think there is [members-only text] relatively speaking so we are still expecting the market to remain range bound within a couple of different areas, so we will turn to the charts for more details on these indications.

We return to the 4-hour chart since the 6-hour has completely flatlined with no new signals.  We can see below that the sideways price action has brought us back out of and above the now bullish Ichimoku Cloud, although there is still congestion around price in the form of the short term EMA's, the 200 SMA, and the Tenkan/Kijun lines from said Cloud.  Also note that SCMR is trying to paint another [members-only text] on what is very lackluster action, a sign that [members-only text] are trying to stage a comeback during this seasonally unique week.  Finally, MACD and PPO have flatlined, price remains above volume profile PoC, the A/D line is still trending higher, and Willy, RSI, and the Stochastic are all treading water in no man's land. While it seems as though the market wants to remain in a sideways consolidation, generally speaking, we also now think that a [members-only text] is certainly not out of the question considering the new near term signals we are seeing. For now, though, we remain neutral and on the sidelines.

For confirmation we turn once again to the daily chart for the medium term outlook.  Due to the severe lack of volatility over the past few days the chart below has not changed all that much since last Friday, although there are some interesting things to note going forward.  Notice that price is still inside the intermediate term supply area as expected, however SCMR painted a [members-only text] yesterday albeit on very low volume.  Additionally, price is above volume profile PoC, as well as all relevant moving averages, while the Ichimoku Cloud stays bullish despite the still bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross.  Lastly, the Stochastic remains pinned in overbought territory, RSI and MACD have flatlined on neutral conditions, Willy and PPO are getting close to overbought, all while the A/D line continue to move healthily to the upside.  This medium term view of the technicals seems to be confirming the notion that the market is not yet ready to move away from the current [members-only text] near term trading range, and by default the[members-only text] medium term range as well, but that if a breakout does materialize it is likely to be [members-only text].

Following a weekend of stability, the market might be in need of some minor volatility in order to shake out complacency before settling into another sideways consolidation range.  Given the discussions above, we are leaning [members-only text] for now over the near term, however we don't expect to see large gaps or spikes over the coming days which means we are not all that excited about entering positions around current levels.  That said, if we do end up seeing some washouts develop to the downside to test support into [members-only text], we will certainly be trying to [members-only text] in anticipation of a more active February.
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 1/30/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

1b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 1/30/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 1/24/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 1/23/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 1/10/2017]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for January 25, 2017

1/25/2017

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Market Commentary:

Following an uneventful break below the 900 $ level yesterday, the market has since stalled out once again as traders continue to attempt to decipher what the new dynamic in the Chinese markets will do to the price over the medium to long term.  It is apparent that China's bitcoin liquidity is not nearly as deep as we were led to believe by the army of bots trading on these fee-free exchanges, however they are still doing more volume than the Western exchanges such as Bitfinex and Bitstamp.  These fundamental uncertainties, combined with the upcoming Chinese New Year holidays which stretch from January 27th to February 2nd, should put a damper on price action over the near term.  The technicals seem to be confirming this notion as well, so let's move on to the charts to make sure.

Today we return to our trusty 4-hour and daily charts for the short to medium term view of the market. We can see below on the 4-hour that price remains in the middle of the still bearish Ichimoku Cloud, and is now back below both the 200 SMA as well as the 9 and 18 EMA's.  Also note that price continues to struggle with the volume profile point of control (PoC) on what have become mostly [members-only text], although we do have a [members-only text] candle from yesterday that is something to watch going forward. Additionally, market structure is downright bearish and price action remains heavy, however trading volumes are anemic and there is still no new [members-only text] to speak of. Finally, the momentum oscillators do have a little bit of room to run to the downside, but not much, and some are even starting to show some [members-only text] signals.  Throw in an A/D line that remains buoyant in the face of the China uncertainty and we think the market remains in an extended bull market consolidation.

Moving on to the daily chart and we can see that the [members-only text] from yesterday did not end up painting, so what we go was more [members-only text].  Notice that price is now at the bottom of the intermediate term supply area, which we mentioned might be the bottom of the near term trading range, although it looks like market structure is turning [members-only text] here as well so we need to keep an eye on the downside for the time being.  Given that we are currently below volume profile PoC on neutral PPO and bearish MACD and Stochastics, we think that a continuation to the downside over the near term is more likely than a return to 900+ $ right away. Having said that, we remain highly interested in the [members-only text] in terms of buying the dip, especially considering that the A/D line remains elevated despite increased selling pressure recently.  Again, bull market consolidation with a slight bearish bias seems to be what the charts are indicating for now.

All things considered, both fundamental and technical, we think the next few weeks could end up being surprisingly calm, likely settling into a trading range somewhere in between [members-only text] depending on where local tops and bottoms are put in over the course of this week.  We will be watching price action closely for signs of how the market is transitioning into this new trading paradigm regarding China, but generally speaking we want to try to [members-only text].
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 1/23/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 1/23/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 1/23/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 1/10/2017]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for January 23, 2017

1/23/2017

0 Comments

 
Market Commentary:

The bitcoin markets continue to exhibit signs that price is indeed in a bull market consolidation phase, even in the face of what could have been a rather bearish weekend considering PBoC and exchange uncertainty.  Quite the contrary actually materialized as the market rallied up to resistance around the 940 $ level prior to pulling back briefly below 900 $ on news that all major Chinese exchanges would begin charging trading fees starting today.  The pullback was quickly bought up by bulls who correctly surmised that a reduction in "fake volume" will end up being a good thing for bitcoin's optics to the investment world.  Not only that, but the technicals remain supportive of the idea that a resolution [members-only text] following the current digestion period is likely, although it could stretch out for another few weeks, or possibly months, so we should be ready for that.

Moving on to today's charts and we still don't want to deviate from the 4-hour and daily for the view of the short and medium term technicals.  We can see on the 4-hour chart below that price remains well within the still bearishly biased Ichimoku Cloud as it follows the 200 SMA slowly to the upside.  Also note that price is being squeezed by the short term EMA's while SCMR paints [members-only text] candles on no new [members-only text] to speak of.  

Having said that, the weekend pullback was quickly rejected by historical dynamic support and the volume profile PoC on what are still rather mixed momentum oscillator indications, however the A/D line has continued its uptrend which means that buyers are still more plentiful than sellers at these levels.  For now the market is in a flatline period suggesting that [members-only text], but directionality remains elusive for now so we will remain patient for the time being.

Next up is the daily chart which still looks pretty good, generally speaking, but given that the breakout from the bullish pennant we mentioned last week has been relatively anemic so far we are [members-only text] over the near term.  Note that SCMR is [members-only text] as price has now officially stalled out in the intermediate term supply area, and it is especially interesting that yesterday's trading range spanned almost the entirety of said supply area which makes us think that perhaps the market has now set a near term trading range between [members-only text].  

Also worth noting is the fact that the Stochastic is already moving back into overbought territory while Willy and RSI flatline, and MACD looks like its losing steam while PPO tries to get back to neutral. Conversely, the A/D line remains healthy despite a big drop-off in total trading volumes, likely a result of new exchange actions which will lead to a more accurate reflection of true market conditions going forward.  Finally, we think [members-only text] considering there are multiple areas of strong support in myriad forms all the way down to the 700 $ level which should entice buyers if prices head lower.

All things considered, we were encouraged by the price action over the weekend, particularly in light of the news out of China, although we can't shake the feeling that the market is due for [members-only text] prior to another leg up to the still psychologically significant 1000 $ area for the second time this year.  We would be [members-only text].
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 1/23/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 1/23/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 1/23/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 1/10/2017]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
0 Comments

Bitcoin Price Update for January 20, 2017

1/20/2017

0 Comments

 
Market Commentary:

The market has really stalled out over the past 24 hours as uncertainty regarding the PBoC's inspections of the big three Chinese exchanges mount, in addition to worries surrounding Trump's inauguration in the US, both of which have made bulls and bears hesitant to act. Not even recent futures settlements, which were expected to be volatile, have been able to break the market away from the current 850 - 915 $ near term trading range.  While we will have some clarity as far as US politics goes as this Friday progresses, the bigger news out of China might not come until next week.  Given these overhanging fundamental factors, in addition to mixed technicals on the short and medium term charts, we think price is in a fairly unpredictable environment right now which is why we want to stay cautious for now.

Let's finish the week off with one final look at the 4-hour and daily charts today in order to see if we can glean any new hints as to directionality and timing over the short to medium term.  We can see on the 4-hour chart below that price is now well within the still bearish Ichimoku Cloud and remains above the upper trendline, but is struggling to get back above [members-only text] and the [members-only text].  Also notice that SCMR is [members-only text], we still don't have any new [members-only text], and it appears as though the market could be putting in a market structure double top in the low-900's $.  Having said that, it just as easily could be part of a slightly larger ascending triangle that likely resolves to the upside in to the not too distant future, but we still don't quite have enough evidence to say which outcome (double top or triangle) will actually materialize just yet.  Given momentum and volume indications that are very mixed, we wouldn't at all be surprised to see another fakeout to the downside to test the bottom of the cloud, and perhaps OTE long zone, prior to a resumption to new local highs next week.

Moving on to the daily chart and again not much has changed since yesterday other than the pennant formation that we mentioned is filling out a bit more as the near term range slowly tightens.  Also note that SCMR is painting another [members-only text] for today, the [members-only text] remains in effect, the upper trendline is still intact, and the EMA's are close to crossing back to the upside while providing near term support. Additionally, price is still within the intermediate term supply area on what remain rather favorable momentum conditions, while volume indications continue to support the idea of an extension of the current [members-only text] until a resolution to the upside develops later this year.  The broader consolidation range continues to sit between 750 and 1100 $, allowing for much leeway both up and down during this period, while the shorter term trading range seems to be [members-only text].  Until one of these levels is broken convincingly, the market should continue to tread water for the time being.

Looking forward, the technicals seem to be telling us to stay patient over the short term while keeping an eye out for opportunities on bouts of news-driven weakness.  Longer term the forecast for an eventual resolution up and out of this larger trading range to new ATH's is still in effect, although timing remains murky.  So, as we head into a weekend filled with both fundamental and technical uncertainty, we think it best to [members-only text] generally speaking so that we can be prepared and ready when the market gives us a clearer trade signal.
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 1/20/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 1/20/2017]**:  We closed our [members-only text] position off of the [members-only text] level at breakeven for no gain or loss.

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 1/17/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 1/10/2017]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
0 Comments

Bitcoin Price Report for January 18, 2017

1/18/2017

0 Comments

 
Market Commentary:

As bitcoin's price rose above 900 $ yesterday, we couldn't shake the feeling that the market does not feel quite done with the 800's $ yet.  Lo and behold, this morning we find the price selling off following a near term head and shoulders formation that spooked traders overnight.  Given that we have yet to hear of any news regarding bitcoin that could be causing the selling, we think this is a purely technical move that is actually overdue.  Also, contrary to what you may be telling yourself, the speed with which this is materializing should be encouraging for bulls since bull market pullbacks are typically short and brutish. While we do not expect the dumping to continue for much longer, we also don't think a bounce back above 900 $ is all that likely over the near term either.

With that said, lets turn to the charts for another look at the short to medium term technicals.  We can see on the 4-hour chart below that price was able to briefly break into the Ichimoku Cloud and above the 200 SMA, but over the past few hours has fallen precipitously from those levels.  Also note that what were steady [members-only text] SCMR candles have quickly shifted to [members-only text] given a [members-only text] bar is currently trying to paint, and it is probably not a coincidence that the move lower began around historical dynamic resistance off of the [members-only text] level.  Additionally, the momentum indicators were stretched and are now rolling over while we tag the top of the [members-only text] zone and a rather large volume profile notch between 825 - 875 $ (which we mentioned yesterday).  We would not be surprised to see price drop slightly more from here before settling into another near term consolidation range.

Moving on to the daily chart, things remain a bit more sanguine considering SCMR painted a [members-only text] candle yesterday and is showing a [members-only text] one today, although the more important feature is that there is not yet a [members-only text] like we usually get during pullbacks like this.  We can also see that price is still above the broken uptrend line and Ichimoku Cloud, but its back below the lower supply area and historical [members-only text] level.  Having said all of that, momentum is still relatively stretched to the downside, the A/D line continues to trend to the upside despite recent volatility, and sell volumes on the current drop are not all that impressive.  The medium term charts continue to indicate that the market remains bullishly biased overall, but is not ready to move out of the current [members-only text] trading range due to lack of price discovery here so far.  

Despite the price action we've seen over the past 12 hours there is not much change to our forecasts regardless of timeframe.  We still think that the market needs to [members-only text] prior to trying to get long again, however we think downside is limited to the low [members-only text] over the very short term and [members-only text] slightly longer term, both of which present attractive buying opportunities from a risk/reward perspective in our opinion. 
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 1/18/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 1/18/2017]**:  We closed our [members-only text] position off of the [members-only text] level at breakeven for no gain or loss.

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 1/17/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 1/10/2017]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
0 Comments

Bitcoin Price Report for January 13, 2017

1/13/2017

0 Comments

 
Market Commentary:

Look what 24 hours without FUD can do for the market!  At this time yesterday morning price was at the tail end of a free fall out of the 800's $, reaching a local low of 751 $, prior to stabilizing and rallying slowly back to the upside throughout the afternoon.  Now price is sitting just above 800 $ as we head into the weekend, a weekend that I think most bitcoin traders will welcome with open arms if it can bring some semblance of stability (at least for a few days).  While there is still not much to report on from the fundamental front considering SegWit activation looks to be quite aways off, there are some interesting developments taking shape via the shorter term technicals that we think warrant some discussion.

We once again show two charts today, a 6-hour and a daily, for a more complete short to medium term outlook as we head into the weekend.  We can see on the 6-hour chart below that despite some conflicting signals in the form of [members-only text] SCMR candles, we now have two intact [members-only text], as well as a [members-only text] candle, both of which tell us that [members-only text] meaning a transition into a consolidative market could very well have already begun.  With that said, notice that we now have new dynamic resistance around the [members-only text] level in addition to demand area support around [members-only text], so we would not be at all surprised to see the market range between these two levels over the coming days.  

With that said, momentum and volume are both currently indicating that the bulls could be taking back control given Willy and the Stochastic remain pinned in officially oversold territory, RSI and MACD are both showing beautiful bullish divergences, and PPO is still flashing strong buy signals. Throw in an A/D line that looks to be finding a bottom while price remains just outside of the volume profile value area, and we think the stage is set for a period of rangy consolidation prior to a [members-only text] next week.

Moving on to the daily chart, we can see that not much has changed since yesterday other than the fact that price has now moved above the intermediate term demand area, and is testing the top of the [members-only text].  Also note that despite what are still [members-only text] candles we still don't have any new dynamic resistance, although on that note there is no new support either. Regardless, the main things we want to focus on here are momentum and volume considering Willy and the Stochastic are oversold, RSI and MACD are attempting to find bottoms, and PPO is finally back to flashing buy signals (albeit weak ones). Add to all of that the fact that the A/D line has been able to stay elevated, as well as a nice big volume divergence on total exchange volume, and we think the market is ready to settle into a range, perhaps a large range between [members-only text], for the foreseeable future as a new base is built upon which to launch the next ATH attempt from.  

Even if the consolidation extends for months, the market should still be in good shape.  As they say, "the longer the base, the higher in space".
​Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ISSUED on 1/9/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 1/9/2017]**:  We closed our [members-only text] position off of the [members-only text] level at breakeven for no gain or loss.

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 1/9/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 1/9/2017]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position in the [members-only text] area.
**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
0 Comments

Bitcoin Price Report for January 9, 2017

1/9/2017

0 Comments

 
Market Commentary:

Once again it was a rather interesting weekend from a price action perspective, one that has at least given us some near term support and resistance levels to work with during what we think will be an extended consolidation going forward.  Despite the fact that we were stopped our of our VST ProTrade off the [members-only text] level at breakeven on Friday, we think this turned out to be a good call considering price went all the way down to 812 $ prior to taking the rest of the weekend to rebound back to the current 900 $ level.  While we think volatility can stay relatively elevated over the course of the next few weeks, we think ultimately price [members-only text] yet again.

As far as the technicals go, things are slightly more bullish than they were last week, however timeframe discrepancies remain prevalent which is one of the main reason why we think the market could move sideways for awhile.  Notice on the 12-hour chart below that SCMR is still painting [members-only text] following a [members-only text] bar, while new dynamic resistance builds around [members-only text].  Also note that market structure remains fairly bearish while price bounces between the upper demand area and the lower supply area, a sign that indecision is already creeping into the medium term charts not a week into this correction.  Where price bottomed is also critical seeing as though the 812 $ spike low tagged the short term trendline, the [members-only text], and the still bullish Ichimoku Coud, not to mention not one candle has yet to close below the upper demand area.

Additionally, the market could be in the middle of a Wyckoff buy model which implies [members-only text], however the speed and magnitude of these initial drops are such that we still think the likelihood is that this becomes a [members-only text] or a handle to a large Cup & Handle off of the 2013 1163 $ high.  Finally, momentum has recharged nicely so far given the Stochastic has been pinned in oversold territory for a few days, Willy and RSI appear to be trying to bottoming close to oversold territory, MACD has completed a deep retracement, and PPO is flashing strong buy signals once again.  All in all, not bad considering how violent the dumps have been over the past week, which tells us that this is likely another [members-only text] rather than a longer term trend change.

We move on to the daily chart now for comparison purposes, mainly in terms of momentum. Despite the Stochastic making progress into oversold territory, Willy and RSI still have room to run if their [members-only text] are broken, MACD is still searching for a bottom, and PPO has yet to stop flashing strong sell signals.  Throw in the fact that SCMR is painting a [members-only text] of the [members-only text] yesterday, as well as new dynamic resistance at [members-only text], in conjunction with what remains bearish exchange volumes, and we see no reason why a move back to the [members-only text] needs to materialize anytime soon. Having said that, there still are no SCMR [members-only text] on the daily chart and the A/D line continues to show more accumulation than distribution at these levels, both indications that this is indeed a consolidation.

Generally speaking, we see no reason to deviate from our thesis that the bitcoin price remains in a long term bull market that has yet to see cycle highs, although given the new year rally we saw over the holiday season we think at least a few weeks of [members-only text] action is in order.  This would give sellers a chance to take profits, buyers a chance to re-accumulate long positions, and would reset all of the momentum indicators regardless of timeframe.  In the context of this outlook, our call for another [members-only text] in February or March seems perfectly reasonable and attainable.
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ISSUED on 1/9/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 1/9/2017]**:  We closed our [members-only text] position off of the [members-only text] level at breakeven for no gain or loss.

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 1/9/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 1/9/2017]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position in the [members-only text] area.
**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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Bitcoin Price Report for January 4, 2017

1/4/2017

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Market Commentary:

Another day, another new cycle high for bitcoin.  In fact, rather than slowing down in order to digest the recent breakouts, the market has been accelerating to the upside in the face of media FUD pieces and very stretched technicals.  While there is no way to tell where this move will top out over the near term, although it looks like soon, we do think all of this is a sign that the supply and demand imbalances are getting more extreme.  A pullback will materialize at some point, whether it be now, near the 2013 ATH's, or well above them, however for the time being there really isn't much to do other than watch the fireworks in amazement and hope for a selloff into support.

Not much need to look at the medium to long term charts right now as they all look similarly bullish, having said that they are also getting a bit parabolic so the odds of a bout of downside volatility continue to increase as price continues to accelerate.  With that in mind, we want to look at the 4-hour chart for potential reversal signs given it is the most relevant short term timeframe we currently work with.  Notice that SCMR is still painting [members-only text] and dynamic support continues to build around [members-only text], neither of which are indicating a [members-only text] is imminent.  We can also see that the Ichimoku Cloud remains bullish as it climbs higher with price, albeit with alot of room to chop around, the EMA's are still stacking to the upside, and the 200 SMA is confirming the bull market.

Having said all of that, there remain many warning signs as far as momentum goes, not least of which is a trifecta of officially overbought oscillators.  Additionally, PPO is still painting weak sell signals, MACD has yet to really pick up steam, and volume profile looks porous below the market. Not only that, but we are at the 161.8% Fib extension which seems like a good place to pullback (and which looks to be materializing as we write this).  Lastly, the A/D line and exchange volumes both continue to favor the bulls, which means [members-only text], however volatility spikes to both to the upside and downside need to be protected against at all costs.    

Generally speaking, we remain firmly in the bull camp from a medium to long term perspective, but realize that a proper retracement is in order prior to a continuation sustainably up through ATH's. We think now is as good a time as any to get it over with in order to set the stage for the real fireworks going into [members-only text].
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 1/4/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

1b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ENTERED on 12/30/2016; CLOSED on 1/1/2017 @ 995 $ for +6.65% PROFIT]**:  We have closed our LONG position off of the 933 $ level at the intended target of 995 $ for +6.65% profit in less than three days.

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 1/3/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 1/3/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 12/28/2016]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position in the [members-only text] area.
**Premium members get to see live trades complete forecasts, and full charts everyday.
To get your access to our edge, subscribe today.**
Subscribe for Complete Forecast
Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor.  Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication.  We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk.  Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.  Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.
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