The bitcoin bulls did their best to defend the 6475 $ level over the past 24 hours despite quite stretched momentum indications on many short-term timeframes but ultimately failed to do so which has led to a pullback down to the 6400 $ region where new support is trying to be established. While there is certainly a chance that this area is able to be defended for long enough to recharge and resync the technicals, especially since new dynamic support has recently emerged, given the character of the still intact short-term uptrend we think the more likely path forward is [members-only content].
We'll take one more close look at the short-term setup this week via the 4-hour chart where we can see that the technicals began to deteriorate when the top of the previously broken ascending triangle failed to hold as support despite [members-only content] SCMR signals which eventually led to [members-only content] back into the formation and into the Ichimoku Cloud, none of which bodes well for the bulls over the near-term. Neither does the fact that earlier today the upper triangle trendline was tested once again and price was quickly rejected back to the downside which sparked the [members-only content] signal we are currently seeing, not to mention the EMA's have started to roll over which will likely keep a lid on price over the next few days. On the other hand, the bulls still have quite a bit to work with overall considering the bounce off of the now flatlined 200 SMA is sparking a rather encouraging candle formation, the still slightly bullish 50 and 100 SMA's are helping to support price above [members-only content] $, new and very strong dynamic support has just emerged at the [members-only content] $ level, short-term market structure remains intact, and the Ichimoku Cloud is slowly growing more bullish out in front of the market, all suggesting that the [members-only content] $ level may hold afterall meaning perhaps we can stay in the VST PT heading into the weekend.
Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that Willy, RSI, and the Stochastic are all in firm downtrends following reversals in overbought territory late yesterday and there is still some room to run lower, while MACD is accelerating below its zeroline and PPO continues to flash sell signals, all of which points to lower prices over the near-term, although perhaps not below [members-only content] $ given most of the heavy lifting appears to be done already. That said, the A/D line is sliding noticeable lower while the volume profile setup leaves much to be desired between [members-only content] $ so a continuation down to the lower part of that range over the upcoming weekend seems like a very real possibility hence our new VST ProTrade idea.
The daily chart appears to be confirming what the 6-hour chart is hinting at considering SCMR is currently painting the first [members-only content] bar since the last week of September which led to an additional ~250 $ drop from the close of that candle to the local lows, so while we would not be at all surprised to see some follow-through to the downside over the coming days due to still bearish moving averages, a bearish Ichimoku Cloud, and overheated momentum, we think a 200+ $ selloff is unlikely for now given the amount of support building below the market. Said support consists of the still bullish EMA's, the new dynamic support dots that have emerged, the near-term OTE long zone, and the upper demand area, all of which reside between [members-only content] $ which is right where we want to re-engage on the long side if given the opportunity.
As far as momentum and volume are concerned, notice that Willy and RSI have begun to recharge following reversals that occurred before reaching overbought territory while MACD and PPO remain neutral and steady, all suggesting that the current weak patch is a [members-only content] rather than a [members-only content], although the Stochastic is still quite extended to the upside and has yet to start to moving lower so there could be some legs to this current consolidation within what we think is still a valid range trading range between [members-only content] $ (the top of which we fully expect to be tested or broken next week if a new HL above [members-only content] $ can ultimately materialize).
Given how the market is currently behaving following the jump in volatility that we saw earlier this morning we think price is likely to continue to move generally sideways around the 6400 $ level for the time being while the shorter-term technicals continue to slowly recharge, although we don't think the stagnation lasts very long seeing as though low-liquidity weekend conditions could present the perfect environment for [members-only content]. If not, then we'll simply stay patient in the still active VST PT off of the [members-only content] $ level which should pay-off if the bulls can play defense over the course of the next few days.