BTCUSD Price Update for November 1st, 2018

Market Commentary

Bitcoin has retreated back down to the 6300 $ area over the past several hours following a spike up to the 6350 $ level which has confirmed the near-term trading range between there and 6200 $ that we have been discussing since the volatility spike on Monday. We continue to view these consolidative conditions as encouraging given the technical picture remains highly uncertain, which means we feel comfortable staying in the VST ProTrade until further notice since we missed the exit target yesterday. That said, we expect more consolidation to continue heading into the weekend due to some concerning near-term signals mixed with asynchronous technicals indications in terms of timeframes, which we'll get to below, so we're not doing much other than [members-only content]. 

4-Hour Chart

We'll take one more look at the 4-hour chart this week where we can see that price has flatlined in the [members-only content] zone on [members-only content] signals and mixed candle formations while VST market structure remains fairly bearish but ST structure remains intact, all pointing to more sideways conditions between 6200 - 6350 $ over the next few days. Also note that the EMA's have stagnated but are acting as support for now, the 100 SMA has flatlined as well, and the symmetrical triangle formation is still intact which we expect to remain the case heading into the upcoming weekend. Having said that, there still appears to be a bearish bias overall considering the 50 and 200 SMA's continue to fall, multiple levels of strong dynamic resistance continue to actively build overhead, and the Ichimoku Cloud is starting to expand to the downside once again, so if there is a move away from the 6200 - 6350 $ range before the week is up we expect it to be to the downside to retest the [members-only content] $ region.

Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that the Stochastic is already close to overbought territory despite little movement in price recently, Willy and RSI continue to tread water in no man's land, and MACD is heading slowly back down towards its zeroline, all confirming the neutral to slightly bearish trading conditions, although PPO is still flashing buy signals which should help the bulls play defense moving forward. Additionally, exchange volumes remain anemic within the triangle and the volume profile notch still [members-only content], both signaling more sideways, although again the A/D line is very healthy which tells us that the bulls are still active at this time. While overall we think [members-only content] for the time being, the bulls still [members-only content] until further notice. 

NOTE: The chart below is not the complete chart shown to members. Subscribe today for full access.

Daily Chart

Next up is the daily chart before we zoom out to the weekly tomorrow where we can see that a [members-only content] signal printed yesterday on a slightly bullish candle formation following the bullish pivot bar on Tuesday which is keeping market structure intact for now, all encouraging signs for the bulls, although the current candle is back to neutral while the still bearish EMA's continue to act as resistance so we don't expect much follow-through over the next few days. This is mainly due to the still bearish longer-term SMA's, the multiple levels of active dynamic resistance overhead, and the still firmly bearish Ichimoku Cloud, all of which confirm that the bears still have the upper hand. That said, the demand areas below the market are still attracting buyers which we think will continue to be the case moving forward meaning [members-only content] heading into the weekend.

As far as momentum and volume are concerned, notice that Willy and RSI continue to stagnate in no man's land, as does MACD, while PPO continues to flash [members-only content] signals, all suggesting that the 6200 - 6350 $ trading range will remain intact for now, although the Stochastic is very close to officially oversold which should be a boon for the bulls moving forward. Additionally, it appears as though exchange volumes are slowly shifting more towards the buyers, the A/D line has begun to tick higher over the past few days, and the volume profile setup remains very healthy in general, so the bulls still have some ammo despite still being on the defensive for now.

NOTE: The chart below is not the complete chart shown to members. Subscribe today for full access.

Market Commentary

While it's certainly possible that volatility returns over the weekend due to what are typically low-liquidity conditions on Saturday and Sunday, the fact that we saw no vol at all on the new monthly candle illustrates just how neutral the market has become here in the low-6000's $ which is why we expect little to no movement over the next 24 - 48 hours. Overall we continue to think this consolidation is a good thing from a longer-term perspective as long as the cycle lows at 5774 $ hold, although we don't think it does much for the bulls over the near-term hence we'll continue to [members-only content].