Apr 30, 2019 --- Blog
Some unexpected strength in the bitcoin markets over the past 24 hours as pushed price up near the top of the near-term trading range between 5000 - 5300 $ on increasingly bullish short-term technicals but increasingly worrying medium-term indications, which bears watching moving forward as the higher timeframes typically win eventually. That said, the longer the bulls are able to defend the [members-only content] $ area the better the odds are of a breakout from the current range to test the [members-only content] $ level once again where we'll truly see what the bulls are made of. Until then, we remain neutral and on the sidelines until better opportunities present themselves moving forward.
We'll begin this last day of April with a look at the 12-hour chart for a broad view of the short-term setup where we can see that price is moving back up to the apex of the previous ascending triangle following a [members-only content] yesterday, all fairly good signs for the bulls moving forward, as is the fact that price has broken back above the EMA's and still bullish 50 SMA which should act as support when/if sellers return at the top of the near-term range. Also note that the 100 and 200 SMA's remain in steady uptrends, the market structure remains intact for now, and the Ichimoku Cloud continues to grow more bullish out in front of the market, so not only should the bulls be able to play strong defense but they also [members-only content]. That said, we expect heavy resistance above [members-only content] $ so we doubt we'll see new highs over the coming days.
As far as momentum and volume are concerned, notice that Willy, RSI, and the Stochastic are all treading water just above oversold territory but have yet to fully recharge, MACD is moving back towards its zero line, and PPO is now flashing weak buy signals, all pointing to more consolidation but now with a slight bullish bias. The volume indications are confirming this considering the A/D line remains strong, sell volumes are weak, and volume profile is improving around current levels despite the large notch between [members-only content] $, which still needs to be explored but probably won't be for a while.
Next we'll zoom out to the 3-day chart for a view of the medium-term technicals where we can see that price continues to consolidate around the still falling 100 SMA and the bottom of the lower supply area on a [members-only content] signal and neutral doji candle while short-term market structure remains intact but longer-term structure is still bearish, all suggesting that [members-only content] for the foreseeable future (granted with a wider range than we are currently in). Also note that the 200 SMA is about to turn lower and the Ichimoku Cloud remains firmly bearish, which will likely keep a lid on the market below [members-only content] $, although the shorter-term moving averages all continue to rise and strong dynamic support continues to build below the market so downside is limited for now as well.
Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that Willy has joined the Stochastic in overbought territory, RSI and MACD are both showing bearish divergences, and PPO continues to flash sell signals, none of which bodes well for the bulls over the medium-term but certainly can allow for more short-term strength. Additionally, exchange volumes continue to dwindle and the volume profile setup remains porous below the market, both worrying signs moving forward, and the A/D line is beginning to level out, so we need to keep a close eye on price action for clues of downside vulnerability (which we still don't see at this time).
The longer the bulls continue to defend the key [members-only content] $ level the better the odds become that we are in fact in the re-accumulation phase of the mark-up of a Wyckoff sell model which implies that the current consolidation could easily lead to another leg higher in the not too distant future (likely up to the [members-only content] $ area). That said, the bulls still have work to do to defend the downside at least through the end of the week in the face of lackluster medium-term technicals so we're staying realistic and neutral over the next few days.
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