Bitcoin Trading Update for April 25th, 2019 (BTC/USD)

Market Commentary

Buoyant and resilient are the best words to describe the bitcoin markets as we approach the upcoming weekend, especially considering that our forecast for more bearishly biased consolidation was indeed on point for most of the past 24 hours due to suboptimal shorter-term technicals but was short-lived due to overactive bulls. Those technicals already have improved substantially in many regards which are justifying the current rally back up to the 5500 $ area, and they could easily lead to more upside over the coming days if the bears continue to underperform. Having said that, the next leg higher should be very telling given that a failure at the previous regional highs of 5627 $ would be grounds for a significant pullback, but a breakout takes us to the [members-only content] $ region where we truly test the bears' resolve.

6-Hour Chart

We'll zoom back out to the 6-hour chart today considering there are some very interesting developments emerging such as the [members-only content] signal and [members-only content] confirmation over the past 24 hours leading to higher prices and thus a new [members-only content] signal on the current candle, all of which is keeping bullish market structure intact and thus is very good for the bulls moving forward. Also note that the EMA's are starting to rise again and are still acting as support, all of the SMA's remain in steady uptrends, multiple levels of dynamic support continue to actively build below the market, and the Ichimoku Cloud is increasingly bullish out in front of the market, all pointing to higher prices from current levels. Granted, there will be some resistance around the old highs but we don't expect it to stop the rally entirely. 

Moving on to short-term momentum and volume, it is encouraging to see Willy, RSI, and the Stochastic recharge to their respective midlines and hold as price turns higher again, although MACD remains weak and PPO continues to flash sell signals so perhaps a bit more consolidation is needed around [members-only content] $ before an attempt to break higher materializes. This need for more consolidation is being supported by the still mixed exchange volumes and the lackluster volume profile setup, however, the A/D line is already starting to move higher meaning the bulls are getting active once again. 

Daily Chart

We'll take one more look at the daily chart this week where we can see that price continues to tread water in the lower supply area on [members-only content] signals and mixed candle formations while market structure remains intact, all fairly good signs for the bulls, as are the rising shorter-term moving averages, the multiple levels of dynamic support, and the still bullish Ichimoku Cloud, so we are still leaning towards more upside before the bears return in earnest. That said, the 200 SMA continues to fall, the price has been struggling in a resistance area for a few days now, and there could be a rising wedge forming that bears watching moving forward which is why we are staying cautious overall. 

As far as momentum and volume are concerned, notice that Willy and the Stochastic are still pinned in overbought territory, RSI is not officially overbought but is showing a bearish divergence, MACD remains below its zero line, and PPO continues to flash strong sell signals, all suggesting that we are nearing the end of this medium-term rally but also leave room for [members-only content]. The dwindling exchange volumes and the porous volume profile setup both confirm that this move is long in the tooth, although the A/D line is sending a powerful signal that the bulls remain highly active and thus there is likely [members-only content] before [members-only content] $ prices are revisited. 

Market Summary

Over the VST it looks like the bitcoin markets want to continue to drift higher, perhaps after a bit more consolidation, which is quite encouraging moving forward. Having said that, the medium-term the technicals are ripe for the pullback which could be triggered at any time so we want to keep our eye on the real prize which is in the [members-only content]'s $, hence we'll keep the majority of powder dry until then despite the still intact VST ProTrade setup.