Bitcoin Price Update for August 15th, 2019 (BTC/USD)

Market Commentary

No doubt its been an interesting, if not frustrating, 24 hours in the bitcoin markets considering price quickly crashed through the 10k $ level yesterday as expected but continued to move swiftly to the downside reaching a selling climax at 9467 $ which put a stop to the selloff for the time being. Since then price has been moving back to the upside due to oversold near-term momentum, trading around the 10,000 $ level this morning, although we remain skeptical that a sustainable bottom has been established due to questionable longer-term technicals, deteriorating sentiment, and a lack of true catalysts on the horizon given that the safe-haven bid from the legacy markets is now gone after yesterday's breakdown. 

12-Hour Chart

We want to take one more look at the 12-hour chart today where we can see that price wicked down into the support confluence consisting of the [members-only content] zone, upper demand area, and rising 200 SMA before bouncing back to the upside thus sparking a rather bullish hammer-like candle formation which is also currently serving as a short-term higher low, however the current candle is coming in quite bearish while SCMR continues to paint [members-only content] signals so we're not confident that a sustainable low has yet been established. The fact that the 50 and 100 SMA's have joined the EMA's in moving to the downside, dynamic resistance continues to actively build overhead, and the Ichimoku Cloud is growing more bearish out in front of the market also suggest that [members-only content] is needed before a sustainable rally can materialize, although we cannot rule out a hold of this area by the bulls so we want to stay neutral heading into the upcoming weekend. 

Moving on to shorter-term momentum and volume, notice that Willy and RSI are close to joining the Stochastic in oversold territory while PPO begins to flash weak buy signals, all suggesting that we're getting closer to a legitimate bottom, although MACD continues to move further below its zero-line which leaves the door open to more downside moving forward. The still thin and porous volume profile set up all the way down to the [members-only content] $ region also remains a concern over the coming days, although exchange volumes do not look all that bad and the A/D line is actually looking better so perhaps the bulls are more willing to play defense in the 9000's $ than we're currently giving them credit for (although they're still going to have to prove it before we're true believers). 

3-Day Chart

We'll also revisit the 3-day chart one last time this week where we can see that price has quickly fallen from the top of the still intact descending channel all the way down to the upper demand area in only a matter of days which has sparked another lackluster candle formation on a [members-only content] SCMR signals while shorter-term market structure remains bearish but longer-term structure is still intact, all of which points to [members-only content] for the foreseeable future. The mixed state of the moving averages, the supply and demand areas above and below the market, and the lack of any active dynamic support or resistance around the market also suggest [members-only content] moving forward, although if the [members-only content] $ regional low is taken out then the [members-only content] $ region is likely the next stop. 

As far as medium-term momentum and volume are concerned, notice that Willy, RSI, and the Stochastic are all moving to the downside once again with some room to run before being fully recharged, MACD has started to accelerate below its zero line, and PPO continues to flash weak sell signals, all of which confirm that [members-only content] is likely over the coming days and weeks. The very thin volume profile setup down to the [members-only content] $ area and the wavering A/D line also confirm the need for more price exploration before a resumption of the bull market, although the still generally bullish exchange volumes are telling us that buyers are still more active than sellers from a longer-term perspective so [members-only content]. 

Market Summary

The fact that price continues to hover above the 10,000 $ level this morning is a good sign for the bulls heading into the weekend, and quite possibly could suggest that 9467 $ is indeed a near-term low that is unlikely to be breached before a new weekly candle paints. That said, we don't yet see [members-only content] at this time hence we're staying neutral overall but with a slight bearish bias heading into the end of the week given the still lackluster state of the short to medium-term technicals.