Jun 25, 2019 --- Blog
While the bitcoin markets did indeed consolidate for a bit yesterday as expected, it certainly didn't last long as once again the bulls moved back in to push the price to new local and regional highs much faster than anticipated which continues to illustrate just how strong they remain. Since the move above 11,247 $ the market has been slowly and relatively steadily moving to the upside as sellers continue to be few and far between despite rather heavy historical resistance in the [members only content] $ range, more good news for the bulls. All of this points to more upside potential as we approach the middle of the week, perhaps all the way up to the [members only content] $ region where we expect more sellers to reengage with the market.
First we want to take a look at the 12-hour chart for a broad view of the short-term technical setup where we can see that price is moving higher on [members only content] signals and bullish candle formations while market structure remains firmly intact, all good signs for the bulls moving forward, as are the slowly accelerating moving averages, the multiple levels of new dynamic support at [members only content] $ and [members only content] $, and the still bullish Ichimoku Cloud out in front of the market, so it looks like [members only content] as the week progresses. The new demand area below the market also bodes well for the bulls, although as we'll see on the 3-day chart below there is significant resistance running from current levels up to the 12k $ area so retracements could materialize at any time.
As far as momentum and volume are concerned, notice that Willy, RSI, and the Stochastic are all in officially overbought territory while MACD paints a bearish divergence and PPO flashes strong sell signals, which in general shouldn't be very good for the bulls, however, these conditions continue to be signs of strength until they're not. The still bullish exchange volumes and still rising A/D line confirm that [members only content], but volume profile remains worrying so [members only content] $ is a key level that needs to hold if weakness becomes more prevalent later in the week.
Next, we'll zoom out on the 3-day chart for some longer-term context following this latest move up where we can see that price has quickly rallied up into the lower supply area on [members only content] signals and bullish candle formations while market structure remains intact, all good news for the bulls despite overhead resistance. Also note that all of the moving averages continue to rise, multiple levels of dynamic support are still building below the market, and the Ichimoku Cloud is growing more bullish out in front of the market, so we don't think a regional top has been put in yet, although we wouldn't be surprised if price did top out below [members only content] $ given the pace and magnitude of the rally over the past few weeks.
Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that RSI has joined Willy and the Stochastic in officially overbought territory while PPO continues to flash sell signals, which means the bulls could be running low on gas, although MACD looks healthy and is starting to rise above its zero line so perhaps there's more left in the tank than meets the eye. The still strong A/D line and bullish exchange volumes confirm the idea that the bulls still have some more upside left in them, and actually volume profile is thinner around [members only content] $ than [members only content] $ which is another reason why price is likely to continue higher from current levels over the near-term.
The fact that price is still treading water around 11,400 $ despite increasingly heavy resistance and increasingly overbought conditions is a testament to the supply and demand imbalance that continues to put upward pressure on price regardless of the technicals or overly bullish sentiment. Throw in the fact that [members only content] and we have a recipe for more upside heading into the back half of the week. That said, the pattern of periodic retracements/consolidations following each minor leg higher is likely to continue so we're still not all that interested in playing breakouts at this point.
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