Jun 20, 2019 --- Blog
The bitcoin markets are still consolidating below the 9400 $ level as expected following a quick spike up to 9442 $ earlier today, but they do look poised to breakout sustainably to the upside in the not too distant future considering how favorable price action has been over the past 24 hours and how strong the technicals remain overall. We also want to point out how little media coverage this almost 3x move off of the 3122 $ lows is currently receiving which tells us that retail has likely been less involved in this rally that last time around implying that larger players are driving this move which makes it more reliable moving forward (a very good thing heading into the halving).
We'll take one more look at the 6-hour chart this week where we can see that price spiked up into the still intact supply area overhead earlier today but was quickly rejected back to the downside thus sparking a lackluster candle formation, which is not great news for the bulls, however SCMR remains [members-only content], market structure is very bullish, and it looks like a small Cup & Handle could be forming which would send prices up at least a few hundred dollars in relatively short order. Also, note that all of the moving averages remain in steady uptrends, multiple levels of dynamic support continue to build below the market, and the Ichimoku Cloud is slowly growing more bullish out in front of the market, so the bias is still certainly to the upside overall.
Moving on to short-term momentum and volume, notice that Willy is pinned just below overbought territory, RSI and the Stochastic are trending higher with a little bit of room left to run, MACD is close to crossing back above its zero line, and PPO is neutral once again, all of which leaves the door open to higher prices over the coming days. The strong A/D line suggests more upside as well, although exchange volumes are dwindling and the volume profile setup remains porous which could become a concern if the bottom of the range at [members-only content] $ is broken to the downside (which we think is unlikely at this time).
We'll also revisit the daily chart once more before the end of Spring where we can see that not much has changed since yesterday other than the current candle formation which is fairly bearish for the time being, much like on the 6-hour chart above, although here too SCMR is still [members-only content], market structure remains bullish, and the ascending channel is intact so things still look good for the bulls from a short to medium-term perspective. The rising moving averages, the multiple levels of dynamic support, the favorable volume indications, and the increasingly bullish Ichimoku Cloud are all good for the bulls as well, hence we think more upside is likely in the not too distant future, although [members-only content] over the next day or two.
As far as momentum and volume are concerned, notice that the Stochastic is officially overbought, MACD has started to roll over again, and PPO is flashing weak sell signals, which are not good signs for the bulls, although Willy and RSI continue to trend higher and still have some room to run which could give the bulls the boost they need to push price up to new local and regional highs soon. The still bullish exchange volumes and the strong A/D line confirm that the bulls are still in control, although volume profile remains the one fly in the ointment in terms of the long-term sustainability of this rally so we'll continue to watch it closely moving forward.
The fact that the bulls were able to defend the high-8000's $ earlier this week when it looked like the technicals were primed for more downside has instilled some additional confidence in the bulls which is bad news for the bears moving forward (at least over the coming days). Combined with a low liquidity weekend environment, as well as summer seasonality, we think a sellers strike might be on the horizon this weekend which would allow price to move up into the [members-only content] $ region where more substantial historical resistance resides, although we cannot rule out a quick move back down to the [members-only content] $ region before then if indeed the aforementioned C&H pattern materializes.
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