Jul 25, 2019 --- Blog
The bitcoin markets continue to tread water around the 10,000 $ level today as the current consolidation persists as expected between [members-only text] $, a range which we expect to remain in play at least until the end of the week. While this lack of volatility might be frustrating to some more active traders, this type of directionless action is exactly what we want to see in terms of a bullish consolidation before [members-only text] later this year. Having said that, over the short to medium-term we continue to think that there is a fairly good chance that the [members-only text]'s $ are tested again, or perhaps even lower before the bulls are ready to get truly active once again.
First we'll return to the 6-hour chart for a look at the short-term technicals where we can see that price has bounced out of the OTE long zone recently thus sparking a [members-only text] signal and a [members-only text] confirmation on fairly bullish candle formations which have helped to improve near-term market structure, all of which are good signs for the bulls heading into the weekend. On the other hand, the past few SCMR signals and candle formations have been [members-only text], all of the moving averages but the 200 SMA are moving to the downside, the Ichimoku Cloud remains firmly bearish above and out in front of the market, and strong dynamic resistance continues to actively build around [members-only text] $, so we think price is likely to stay below that level even if the bulls remain active over the weekend.
Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that the Stochastic looks healthy, MACD just crossed back above its zero line, and PPO is still flashing weak buy signals, all of which should keep a bid under the market over the coming days, however Willy and RSI are now treading water in no man's land which confirms our forecast for more rangy consolidation between ~[members-only text] $ for the foreseeable future. The slightly bearish and anemic exchange volumes, the stagnant A/D line, and the volume profile PoC around [members-only text] $ are also pointing to trendless conditions over the upcoming weekend, likely within an even tighter near-term range between ~[members-only text] $.
We'll also take one more look at the 3-day chart today where we can see that price continues to tread water in the middle of the descending channel on [members-only text] SCMR signals and mixed candle formations while short-term market structure remains broken yet long-term structure remains intact, all suggesting more of the same moving forward. The flatlining EMA's and the lack of dynamic support or resistance around the market also point to more consolidation, however the bullish Ichimoku Cloud and the fact that a golden cross is close to being confirmed tell us that our longer-term forecast for a [members-only text] before year-end remains the call moving forward.
As far as medium-term momentum and volume are concerned, notice that Willy, RSI, and the Stochastic all continue to progress nicely to the downside but with room still to run before being fully recharged, MACD continues to move further below its zero line, and PPO is still flashing weak sell signals, so caution remains warranted as we get deeper into summer. The still lackluster exchange volumes, the choppy A/D line, and the thin volume profile setup all confirm the need for more price exploration around current levels before [members-only text] later this year so we'll stay on the sidelines until better opportunities emerge.
While it's clear that we are expecting more sideways consolidation over the coming days, and perhaps weeks, we think the most likely path forward over the shorter-term is a continuation up to the [members-only text] $ area where sellers are likely to return to push price back below 10k $ to once again test the bottom of the [members-only text] $ trading range. Granted, this action will have little consequence on the longer-term technicals, although it should keep the short-term outlook from deteriorating too much more over this last weekend of July hence we still want to be buyers at the bottom of the range if given the chance.
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