Jul 23, 2019 --- Blog
The summer doldrums continue for the bitcoin markets as more selling has pushed the price below the 10,000 $ level as expected on still weakening technicals and pessimistic sentiment while newsflow and fundamentals have slowed, all confirming our medium-term outlook for more consolidation between [members-only content] $ as the summer progresses. Considering the price is treading water right in the middle of that range right now directionality is a bit uncertain, although we think the charts are suggesting slightly more downside over the course of this week before the bulls return in earnest in the developing support confluence area between [members-only content] $.
We'll begin today's analysis with a look at the 12-hour chart for a broad view of the short-term setup where we can see that the move below 10k $ over the past several hours has sparked [members-only content] signals on relatively bearish candle formations that have turned already bearish market structure heavy once again and taken price below the 100 SMA, none of which bodes well for the bulls heading into the back half of the week. The falling EMA's and 50 SMA, the very strong and still active dynamic resistance overhead, and the fact that the Ichimoku Cloud is close to flipping to bearish soon also point to [members-only content], however, multiple demand areas and the ST OTE long zone all reside between [members-only content] $ so if the bulls are going to return this week its likely to be in that area.
As far as momentum and volume are concerned, Willy and RSI are still slowly recharging near oversold territory and PPO continues to flash buy signals, all encouraging for the bulls moving forward, although the Stochastic just rolled over and has a lot of room to run lower before being even partially recharged and MACD is close to crossing back below its zero line which could easily spark another near-term selloff before the buyers get active again. The lackluster exchange volumes and thin volume profile setup also suggest [members-only content] over the coming days, although the A/D line remains relatively healthy so longer-term the outlook is still fairly sanguine.
Next, we'll zoom out to the 3-day chart where we can see that SCMR still has yet to paint a [members-only content] during this consolidation leaving neutral candles to dominate the action, decent news for the bulls, within what appears to be a descending channel that is forming that portends [members-only content], not great news for the bulls. The weakening EMA's and lack of short-term support above [members-only content] $ are also worrisome signs moving forward, however all of the longer-term SMA's continue to move to the upside, a golden cross is only a week or two away from confirming, and the Ichimoku Cloud is still growing more bullish out in front of the market, so even if 9k $ fails to hold we think an MT higher low above [members-only content] $ is very likely over the next few weeks.
As far as momentum and volume are concerned, notice that Willy, RSI, and the Stochastic are all recharging quite nicely and are on pace to reach oversold territory late this week or early next, good news for the bulls, although MACD remains weak and PPO is still flashing sell signals so we need to stay cautious until further notice. The increasingly bearish exchange volumes and weakening A/D line confirm that conditions are suboptimal, as does the still thin and porous volume profile setup, so we want to keep sizing relatively small even in the favorable ST ProTrade entry area.
Given how much the shorter-term technicals have deteriorated over the past few days its rather surprising to see price hover around the 10k $ level after breaking it earlier today, a fairly good sign for the bulls moving forward considering they are defending a psychological rather than technical level. That said, unless there is a volume surge on a strong push back above [members-only content] $ over the coming days we think the path of least resistance is lower down into the [members-only content]'s $ where support continues to actively build.
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