Bitcoin Market Update for July 18th, 2019 (BTC/USD)

Jul 18, 2019 --- Blog

Market Commentary

Given our bitcoin forecast from yesterday it came as no surprise that price retraced off of the 10k $ level down to the low-9000's $ to retest the regional low which was able to hold due to a surge in buying activity in the VST OTE long zone, a move which has since been followed up by a quick and powerful rally well above 10,000 $ on strong price action and encouraging short-term technicals so we think there is more upside to come once resistance around 10,500 $ is broken. There is even the potential to move up to the [members-only content] region in relatively short order (or perhaps even higher), although we're skeptical that this is a resumption of the bull market and are leaning towards this being yet another bounce within a broader consolidation (although its likely that 9063 $ is ultimately the bottom of the range). 

6-Hour Chart

We'll begin with one more look at the trusty 6-hour chart this week where we can see that the overnight selloff down to into the upper demand area was quickly rejected back to the upside thus sparking a relatively large [members-only content] SCMR signal on a bullish candle formation that has broken above the EMA's and 200 SMA, all of which bodes well for the bulls moving forward. So does the fact that said EMA's have turned back to the upside, although price is currently stalling out just below supply area resistance while the shorter-term SMA's fall and the Ichimoku Cloud grows more bearish out in front of the market so it might take a little while for [members-only content] $ to be broken. 

Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that Willy, RSI, and the Stochastic are all picking up steam to the upside with plenty of room to run, MACD just crossed back above its zero line, and PPO continues to flash strong buy signals, all pointing to more upside before the week is up. The bullish volume spike today in conjunction with an improving A/D line also tells us that buyers are back in the game, although volume profile remains suboptimal below [members-only content] $ hence we think the current near-term move is likely to terminate around there. 

Daily Chart

We'll also revisit the daily chart one more time before the weekend where we can see that the recent rejection off of the upper demand area and away from the OTE long zone has sparked a [members-only content] signal on a bullish candle formation that has retaken the 50 SMA, all very good news for the bulls. So are the still rising SMA's and the increasingly bullish Ichimoku Cloud, particularly from a longer-term perspective, however, the falling EMA's are sitting just overhead and dynamic resistance continues to actively build so we think a period of broad consolidation between ~[members-only content] $ is likely over the coming weeks. 

As far as momentum and volume are concerned, notice that Willy and RSI are starting to move higher with room to run despite not fully recharging, the Stochastic remains pinned in oversold territory, MACD appears to have bottomed, and PPO is flashing weak buy signals, all confirming our forecast for more upside over the near-term but more consolidation over the medium-term. The still healthy A/D line confirms the current bullish bias, although exchange volumes leave something to be desired and the volume profile setup remains thin and porous, both of which support the notion of more price exploration within the MT range. 

Market Summary

Price action has stayed bullish since the breakout back above 10,000 $ only an hour ago which suggests that our call for a move above [members-only content] $ up to the [members-only content] $ region is likely before the end of the week, and its even possible that higher levels materialize before the bears truly return in earnest. That said, we do think they will return to keep the price below [members-only content] $ for a while so we're not expecting an immediate resumption of the bull market at this time. 


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