Bitcoin Market Update for July 11th, 2019 (BTC/USD)

Jul 11, 2019 --- Blog

Market Commentary

The bitcoin markets continued to move lower over the past 24 hours as expected, reaching down into the low-11,000's $ before bouncing back above 11,500 $ today, although the move off of the bottom has been rather tame given the magnitude of the selloff from the 13,200 $ high and the technicals are still in need of some recharging so we're not ready to say that another rally is imminent at this time. That said, we do think that the broader bull market remains intact even if price breaks back below [members-only content] so we'll continue to look for favorable r/r areas to try to nibble on longs. 

12-Hour Chart

We'll take one more look at the 12-hour chart before closing out the week where we can see that we do have a bit of a double top around 13,000 $ due to the supply area which has led to the recent selloff that sparked a large [members-only content] bar yesterday and since then has been neutral on mixed candle formations, none of which really helps with near-term directionality. The fact that the EMA's have rolled over while the SMA's continue to rise isn't helping matters either, nor is the lack of supply or demand areas immediately around the market, although strong dynamic support continues to build and the Ichimoku Cloud remains firmly bullish so the longer-term bias appears to still be to the upside.

Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that Willy, RSI, and the Stochastic have all begun to recharge but still have plenty of room to run to the downside, MACD is about to cross below its zero line, and PPO has yet to flash any buy signals, so we think more consolidation is necessary before another attempt to move higher. The thin volume profile setup and what appears to be bearish exchange volumes suggest more consolidation as well, perhaps even with a bearish bias, however, the A/D line is actually strengthening again today which suggests that buyers have gotten active once again. 

Weekly Chart

We'll wrap up the week with a look at the weekly chart which is showing many conflicting signals for the time being, also not great for forecasting directionality, such as the still [members-only content] SCMR signals that are coming on quite bearish candle formations that do not bode all that well for the bulls moving forward. Neither does the fact that price has yet to close above the top of the lower supply area, which is a prerequisite to resuming the bull market,  although still intact market structure and the rising moving averages should keep the longer-term bias bullish regardless of where this correction land us (as long as it is an LT higher low above [members-only content]).

As far as momentum and volume are concerned, notice that Willy and RSI are both pinned in overbought territory, MACD has started to roll over, and PPO is still flashing weak sell signals, again not great for the bulls, however the Stochastic has begun to recharge, which is good, and until [members-only content] $ is broken to the downside overbought conditions could easily stay signs of strength ([members-only content]). The volume indications aren't all that helpful either considering the A/D line has stagnated recently, exchange volumes have turned somewhat bearish, and volume profile remains porous below the market, so caution is warranted until the bulls prove they are still in charge.

Market Summary

Given the directional uncertainty discussed throughout the analysis today, we think the market is likely to form a trading range heading into the weekend, if it hasn't already, between ~[members-only content] $ within which it can consolidate in trendless fashion until the technicals become clear. That said, if we had to pick a bias for a potential breakout in either direction we'd probably have to lean bearish moving forward unless the bulls can push the price above 12k $ before the weekly close on Sunday, hence we have adjusted stops on the now active VST ProTrade to protect against another selloff.


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