Bitcoin Market Update for August 1st, 2019 (BTC/USD)

Aug 1, 2019 --- Blog

Market Commentary

The bitcoin markets are still treading water around the psychologically significant 10,000 $ level due to rather heavy overhead resistance, although the technicals continue to improve on almost all timeframes, particularly the monthly chart which we'll take a look at tomorrow. We also like the fact that newsflow, especially coming from the Trump administration, has slowed and sentiment has improved so we continue to think that the path of least resistance is higher heading into the weekend likely up to the [members-only content] $ area that we discussed at length yesterday. That said, we still think that a breakout above that level is unlikely, much less [members-only content] $ which is what is needed to truly confirm the Adam & Eve bottom, hence we're staying neutral until further notice. 

12-Hour Chart

We'll begin the month of August with a look at the 12-hour chart where we can see that the oft mentioned Adam & Eve double bottom continues to develop quite nicely as SCMR is now printing [members-only content] signals on decent candle formations while market structure improves, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The fact that the EMA's are about to cross over to officially bullish once again while the longer-term SMA's remain in steady uptrends are also encouraging signs for the bulls, however, the 50 SMA continues to fall, multiple levels of dynamic resistance are still actively building overhead, and the Ichimoku Cloud is beginning to grow more bearish out in front of the market, so until the [members-only content] $ level is broken we'll remain skeptical of the strength we're currently seeing. 

Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that Willy and RSI are slowly making progress to the upside but with plenty of room still to run, MACD is moving higher above its zero line, and PPO continues to flash buy signals, all of which points to more upside over the coming days, although the Stochastic is already overbought so the market could easily [members-only content] over the next 24 - 48 hours. Additionally, the still lackluster exchange volumes, the stagnant A/D line, and the still relatively thin volume profile setup all support the idea of more medium-term, consolidation, so we're [members-only content] at this time. 

Weekly Chart

Since we'll be zooming out to the monthly chart tomorrow, we'll take a look at the weekly chart today where we can see that price appears to be consolidating within a bullish flag formation on [members-only content] SCMR signals while market structure remains bullish overall, so we think the longer-term bull market is still intact despite heightened short to medium-term uncertainty. The still-rising moving averages and active dynamic support dots both confirm that there is still a longer-term upward bias, although the bearish Ichimoku Cloud and the lack of true support until [members-only content] $ levels have us staying on the sidelines until a better opportunity presents itself. 

As far as momentum and volume are concerned, notice that Willy, RSI, and the Stochastic have all started to recharge from overbought territory but still have lots of room to run to the downside, MACD is close to crossing below its zero line for the first time this year, and PPO is still flashing sell signals, all of which suggests that our medium-term call for [members-only content]is indeed on track. The dwindling exchange volumes and still porous volume profile setup also point to [members-only content], although the A/D line remains fairly strong so perhaps we're not giving the bulls the respect they currently deserve.

Market Summary

From a short-term perspective, the market appears to be in a fairly good position to start the month of August which is why we think the bias is to the upside as we get closer to the low-liquidity weekend, therefore we're expecting a move above the recent 10,172 $ local highs on the way to the resistance confluence between [members-only content] $ likely before the end of the week (Sunday). That said, if the bulls fail to follow through over the coming days then it will likely give the bears the confidence they need to retest the [members-only content]'s $ once again which would be risky business for the bulls considering the current state of the Adam & Eve bottom. 


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