Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Update for January 29th, 2019

Market Commentary

The bitcoin markets have remained under pressure over the past 24 hours which comes as no surprise given the technical setup that we discussed yesterday, although support has emerged above 3300 $ once again which has sparked a bounce back up to the 3400 $ level that price is quite attracted to right now so the bulls are still playing defense for the time being. That said, we don't think the bulls can prevent a move down into the [members-only content] $ at some point in the not too distant future even if there is a continuation to the upside to new resistance around [members-only content] $ over the coming days, which is why we are staying patient for lower levels before getting active in the VST ProTrade moving forward. 

12-Hour Chart

We'll start off today with a look at the 12-hour chart where we can see that price continues to follow the bottom of the descending channel to the downside on primarily [members-only content] signals and bearish candle formations, which points to [members-only content] moving forward, although double bullish pivot bars printed over the past few days while price remains within the OTE long zone which should continue to help the bulls play defense moving forward. That said, the bearish indications still far outweigh the positives considering all of the shorter-term moving averages are now accelerating to the downside, the longer-term SMA's remain in steady downtrends, new and strong dynamic resistance has begun to build at [members-only content] $ (in addition to the still active resistance above there), and the Ichimoku Cloud remains bearish and continues to move lower out in front of the market, all suggesting that [members-only content] at this time.

As far as momentum and volume are concerned, notice that Willy and the Stochastic both remain under pressure but are very close to fully recharged, RSI has stagnated above its 20-line but is trying to start bullishly diverging, MACD is still treading water just below its zeroline, and PPO continues to flash neutral signals, all of which leave room for more near-term downside but also show [members-only content] approaching in the near future. Additionally, exchange volumes have been fairly bearish recently but remain anemic overall, the A/D line continues to chop around but is staying surprisingly resilient, and the volume profile setup has yet to fully develop but continues to improve, all confirming our call for a move below [members-only content] $ before a bounce materializes above [members-only content] $.

3-Day Chart

Next we'll zoom out to the 3-day chart for a broad view of the medium-term setup where we can see that price has finally moved down into the [members-only content] zone on a [members-only content] signal which is turning market structure [members-only content] for the time being, although said [members-only content] zone and the demand area confluence which it resides within are providing some support which is keeping the current candle formation from turning too negative. That said, the EMA's and shorter-term SMA's are all trending steadily to the downside, very strong dynamic resistance continues to actively build overhead at [members-only content] $, and the Ichimoku Cloud continues to grow more bearish out in front of the market, all pointing to [members-only content]. 

Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that Willy has risen slightly over the past several weeks and is no longer in oversold territory, RSI and the Stochastic are still moving slowly lower but have yet to fully recharge, MACD has yet to emerge from around its zeroline, and PPO is still flashing weak buy signals as opposed to strong ones, all confirming that [members-only content] but are not there quite yet. This is being confirmed by the very stagnant exchange volumes and flatlined A/D line which suggest more near-term weakness, although the volume profile setup is much thinner just above the market than just below it which should help the bulls moving forward.

Market Summary

Given the still intact negative seasonality, the current newsflow vacuum, the fundamental stagnation of many network statistics, and the lackluster longer-term technicals, we worry that the odds are increasing of a breakdown below the 3122 $ cycle low before all is said and done which is why we are staying conservative in our PT entries and will keep sizing small regardless of how attractive the setups become. We'll need to see ample evidence of a reversal and confirmation above 3122 $ before becoming confident enough to increase risk, and for the time being we are quite skeptical as to the likelihood of this outcome. That said, we continue to think its worth a small shot at slightly lower levels in case this is truly the bottom, so once [members-only content] $ breaks we'll begin to get active on the long side once again.