Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Update for February 7th, 2019

Market Commentary

The bitcoin markets have barely moved over the past 24 hours as indecision has gripped the market while at the same time the technicals remain highly mixed which is a recipe for more sideways consolidation over the coming days. Having said that, we continue to lean bearish in terms of directionality over the short to medium-term as we discussed in detail in yesterday's update so we'll remain on the sidelines with dry powder for lower levels before getting involved on the long side once again. 

6-Hour Chart

First up we'll return to the 6-hour chart for a view of the short-term setup where we can see that the very minor rally back up close to the 3400 $ level earlier today was rejected at the still bearish lower EMA which sparked another [members-only content] signal and [members-only content] candle formation while market structure remains broken and heavy, all confirming the still intact bearish bias. Also note that the descending channel remains firmly intact, all of the longer-term moving averages are still moving steadily lower, strong dynamic resistance continues to build overhead around [members-only content] $, and the Ichimoku Cloud is still growing more bearish out in front of the market, all confirming that the path of least resistance remains to the downside. Granted, price is still finding some support in the upper demand area and there is even stronger support below there via the medium-term demand area, although we don't think these zones are strong enough to keep price above [members-only content] $ for all that much longer hence we continue to lean to the downside moving forward.

Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that Willy and RSI have yet to fully recharge at any point in 2019, the Stochastic has but has also moved higher recently so it has room to fall, MACD remains slightly below its zeroline, and PPO continues to flash neutral signals, all pointing to more trendless action between [members-only content] $ over the near-term but also leave the door open for [members-only content]. Additionally, exchange volumes are increasing and are turning more bearish for the time being, the A/D line remains under pressure and is actually taking another leg lower right now, and the volume profile setup gets thin below the [members-only content] $ level which is likely why the bulls are defending that region, so it does in fact appear as though the bears are gaining some strength heading into the weekend.  

Daily Chart

We'll take one last look at the daily chart this week where we can see that price continues to hover just above the inner demand area on another [members-only content] signal and a small but bearish candle formation while short-term market structure remains broken and the descending channel remains intact, none of which bodes well for the bulls moving forward. Also note that the EMA's continue to move lower, the 50 SMA just turned bearish once again, the 100 and 200 SMA's remain in steady downtrends, strong dynamic resistance continues to actively build overhead, and the Ichimoku Cloud is still firmly bearish above and out in front of the market, so indeed the technicals are still pointing to lower prices once the current trading range is broken. Obviously there is still a chance that the 3122 $ cycle lows hold on the retest, although risks are highly elevated which is why we'll stay patient for more attractive levels before getting involved (and we'll keep sizing small once we are involved).

As far as medium-term momentum and volume are concerned, notice that Willy is just now poking its head into officially oversold territory for the first time this year, RSI is also moving lower but has yet to fully recharge, the Stochastic is recharged but is not yet ready to reverse, MACD remains flatlined around its zeroline, and PPO is no longer flashing buy signals, all of which continues to show a [members-only content] is nearing but also that we have not yet reached [members-only content]. This is being confirmed by the still dwindling exchange volumes, the lackluster A/D line, and the improving yet still porous volume profile setup which suggests more sideways action before [members-only content].

Market Summary

Given the current state of the market, we would not be at all surprised to see the [members-only content] $ range stay intact into and through the majority of the upcoming weekend which is why we think it smart to stay neutral and preserve capital for a better opportunity when it finally arises. Granted, there could be liquidity spikes out of that range before a true breakout, however we think they will be short-lived due to the price action that we've witnessed over the course of this week. That said, if there is a resolution out of the range over the near-term we continue to expect it to be to the downside below [members-only content] $ so we'll stay on the sidelines until the ProTrade entry area is hit.