Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Update for February 5th, 2019

Market Commentary

The technicals continue to lead the bitcoin markets sideways and appear to be pointing to yet more consolidation before a resolution away from the [members-only content] $ range, which means that our forecast from yesterday remains intact. That said, while we continue to lean bearish from a slightly longer-term perspective there are some rather encouraging signals emerging that could bode well for the bulls over the coming days (and perhaps weeks) which we'll discuss below and will watch closely moving forward. 

4-Hour Chart

First up today is the 4-hour chart where there are some interesting yet conflicting signals emerging such as the [members-only content] that printed during the Asia session overnight following a hold of the top of the demand area, and now price is creeping above the 50 SMA on a [members-only content] signal and [members-only content] candle formation, all of which suggests more trendless action moving forward but with an increasingly bullish near-term bias. That said, the previous candle looks an awful lot like a shooting star reversal, all of the moving averages are still moving lower, new and very strong dynamic resistance is starting to build immediately overhead at [members-only content] $, and the Ichimoku Cloud is beginning to re-expand to the downside out in front of the market, so the path of least resistance remains lower despite the green shoots mentioned above.

Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that Willy continues to slowly recharge to the downside, RSI is still treading water in no man's land, the Stochastic is starting to move higher, MACD has moved slightly above its zeroline for now, and PPO continues to flash neutral signals, all pointing to a continuation of the [members-only content] $ range at least for the next 24 hours. This is being confirmed by the still anemic exchange volumes, stagnant A/D line, and suboptimal volume profile setup, however buy volumes are increasing, the A/D line remains elevated, and there is a VP notch around [members-only content] $ that could use some attention, so we are open to the possibility of a spike up to the top of the range before resolving below [members-only content] $ like we continue to expect.

3-Day Chart

We'll also take a look at the 3-day chart today for a broader view of the medium-term setup where we can see that price is still consolidating inside of the [members-only content] zone on [members-only content] signals and mixed candle formations while market structure remains broken and heavy overall, all confirming the sideways conditions but with a still intact slight bearish bias, however the longer price stays above the 3122 $ cycle lows the better the odds of the Adam & Eve bottom are which certainly bears watching moving forward. That said, the bears are still in control for now considering that all of the moving averages continue to fall, except the 200 SMA which is very close to reversing lower as well, strong dynamic resistance continues to actively build overhead, and the Ichimoku Cloud remains firmly bearish out in front of the market, so we still think that a test of [members-only content] $ levels is likely before all is said and done.

As far as momentum and volume are concerned, notice that Willy remains pinned just above officially oversold territory, RSI is still heading slowly lower but has yet to fully recharge, the Stochastic has recently entered oversold territory, MACD is stuck around its zeroline, and PPO is still flashing weak buy signals, a hodgepodge of indications that are not very helpful in terms of directionality. Neither are exchange volumes or the A/D line, both of which remain under pressure, which confirms our forecast for more consolidation over the course of this week thus we are staying on the sidelines until a more attractive opportunity presents itself outside of the [members-only content] $ trading range.

Market Summary

Given that there is no change to the current forecast due to the still highly mixed technicals we continue to expect the market to tread water within the short-term trading range until a resolution materializes, likely to the downside, although we are willing to admit that the bulls might be gaining some ground for the time being while the bears fail to break support. While there is still a long way to go for the bulls in terms of defending these levels for a longer-term bottom, they have so far exceeded our expectations heading into 2019 which accounts for something moving forward.