BBA's 2015 Predictions Review:
We learned a lot watching our three bitcoin price prediction and projections from last year play out. Let’s do a quick review before moving on to 2016:
“1.) Bitcoin finds a sustainable bottom at some point during 2015 that will set the stage for a very bullish 2016. 200 $ will not be broken.” - It’s a bummer that this one proved incorrect within just a few weeks of the beginning of 2015. That said, the sentiment of this bitcoin price prediction proved accurate as indeed a bottom was established near the 200 $ level over the first three quarters of the year thus setting the stage for a bullish 2016.
“2.) NY’s BitLicense is finalized and implemented early in the year. Small Wall Street firms start to play in the sandbox, however larger institutions and banks will stay away yet again.” - This came true as far as the BitLicense, although almost the opposite consequences occurred from what we predicted. The License drove smaller players away from New York, and the US in general, while bigger institutions have gotten involved in both bitcoin and blockchain in a fairly substantial way.
“3.) local fiat currency idiosyncracies become more exaggerated as investors play bitcoin in a more situational way, much like what has happened with the bitcoin/Russian ruble pair recently.” - Again, part of this prediction did indeed materialize as EM currency volatility increased significantly, however the reason was because of global central back policy, not involvement in bitcoin as we suspected.
All in all, not bad for the first try. Let’s see how much better (or worse!) we can do this year:
BBA's Bitcoin Predictions for 2017:
1.) Bitcoin Price Prediction: We think bitcoin sees a much more positive year in 2016 than it did in 2015, although 2015 is turning out to be pretty good as well. A bottom has been put in at the 162 $ low, which will be not be broken in 2016. This low, and the subsequent accumulation around 200 $, has set the stage for a rally back above 1000 $ to a new nominal ATH. To be more specific, we think the price of 1 bitcoin will get above 1175 $ USD (Finex) at some point in the year 2016. Not that it will necessarily close there, but it will break it at some point.
2.) Blockchain Prediction: Wall Street and Silicon Valley will continue to experiment with “blockchain technology” as they try to understand the innovation. Many will create marginally valuable internal process efficiencies via blockchain, but most will realize that the best way to use blockchain is via bitcoin. This will drive additional capital into bitcoin the currency as larger institutions buy them as a tool, and potentially a hedge. Perhaps States and Central Banks do as well, although that feels more like a 2017-2018 kind of phenomenon.
3.) Blockchain Controversy Prediction: We get at least a near term resolution to the blocksize controversy in the form of a very conservative increase in MB size, with very conservative scaling. This will alleviate what is still the major technological and communal overhang in the cryptocurrency space in many peoples mind, while still maintaining transaction fees as a priority for long term sustainability.
4.) Altcoin Prediction: Privacy focused altcoins will begin to garner more attention due to the recently passed CISA act, the realization that bitcoin is anything but private, and the growing need for a truly fungible, global currency. These will be looked at more like e-cash than e-gold, but are unlikely to gain much on bitcoin in terms of value due to the fact that their blockchains are not conducive to non-monetary applications like bitcoin’s is. Regardless, we think “anon” coins have a bright future, and 2016 is the year people realize it.
BTC/USD Weekly chart