Originally published in the Bitcoin BullBear Weekly Report released on 3/13/2015. Partial excerpt only. Written by @AKWAnalytics.
What a week it has been as the battle over 300 $ continues. Up until early this morning, we simply could not get a handle on the market whatsoever as technicals have become less helpful in the chop. That being said, the move lower to our 289 $ downside target has provided just enough clarity for us to get back on track.
While the shorter term outlook remains murky, most likely due to the fact that bitcoin is stuck in a trendless pattern and is potentially in a bottoming process, the past 24 hours have shed some light on the longer term forecast. We are now leaning toward a higher low being put in within the next month or two, followed by a slow by steady climb up to major resistance in the 320 - 350 $ zone. What happens at those levels will determine the rest of 2015 in our opinion, although our hunch is that the bulls can break it if the technical conditions are conducive. We need a pullback for that to materialize.
Anyway, back to the near term. Despite the fact that 300 $ could not hold for more than a few minutes, it was encouraging to see that the failure wasn’t met with swift and intense selling. In fact, what we saw was very systematic selling at the top followed by institutional style support at all levels on the way down. There is no doubt in our minds that the bitcoin markets are maturing on a daily basis as new liquidity flows in and new hedging instruments become pervasive.
Although the bulls might not like the idea that price needs to come back down into the mid- 200’s $ before taking a stab at medium and long term resistance, it is the only way that the market can get enough mojo back to make it a successful stab. Think of it like taking a breather on a long trek just before a major obstacle. The more juice you got in the tank, the better chance you have to arrive.
Cheers,
@AKWAnalytics
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