Originally published in the BullBear Analytics Weekly Report released on 1/2/2015. Partial excerpt only. Written by @AKWAnalytics.
Bitcoin
2014 was a year of beneath the surface progress that had little impact on people’s willingness to buy and/or hold bitcoins. Additionally, we saw a large influx of new merchants accepting and coverting bitcoin, and miners being able to ubiquitously use ASIC’s for the first time in bitcoin’s histoy. The relatively stable demand picture combined with the increasing in supply created a glut in 2014 that put pressure on prices throughout the year.
While we do not expect much more downside in price in 2015, we do think it will be a year of neutrality and stablization that sees little upside movement either. At this point, we feel the market needs to refocus on the block halving in 2016 before a new bull market to ATH’s can occur (typically lead time for these types of events is 9-12 months, at least in the traditional markets).
Predictions:
1.) Bitcoin finds a sustainable bottom at some point during 2015 that will set the stage for a very bullish 2016. A certain key level will not be broken.
2.) NY’s BitLicense is finalized and implemented early in the year. Small Wall Street firms start to play in the sandbox, however larger institutions and banks will stay away yet again.
3.) local fiat currency idiosyncracies become more exaggerated as investors play bitcoin in a more situational way, much like what has happened with the bitcoin/Russian ruble pair recently.
More to commentary and predictions to come on Stocks and Metals. Stay tuned…
Cheers,
@AKWAnalytics
BTC/USD daily chart
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