Originally published in a Bitcoin Bull Bear short term market update on 8/13/2013
Market Comentary: The rally has continued as predicted, breaking resistance at 105 $ on good
volume. The market is now digesting the move up to 108 $, which is the
next major resistance level and is being tested now (edit: we have since broken out and are now holding support at 108 $). The technical picture
continues to develop nicely, which reinforces our bullish outlook in the
short term. More specifically, on the updated 240min chart, the 9 hour
Ichimoku Cloud has been broken to the upside and is now acting as support
(shown in purple), and the MACD and SAR continue to indicate a continued
bullish trend. One negative is the 2day Ichimoku Cloud looming overhead as
resistance (shown in red), however we are ever so close to breaking through
the cloud and moving higher still (edit: this Cloud has been penetrated).
A sustained move above these levels makes a test of the neckline/old highs
at 110 - 112$ extremely likely, and a move beyond this range would make a
move to 118 - 124 $ more probable. This would be a significant move if
confirmed on volume and might catapult BTC/USD into a new, higher trading
range. Probability XX/XX (subscribers only).
What is the alternative? A failure to hold key support in the 98 - 100 $
zone would put the BitBears back in charge in the short term and the market
could see a sharp move lower to test the VERY strong support band from 86 -
88 $. This level must hold in order for many medium term patterns to
remain valid. Probability XX/XX (subscribers only).
BTC/USD 240min chart:
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