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Safe Asset and Wealth Protection Portfolio Update
(8/21/2015) - Macro Commentary As we have expected, the global growth picture looks gloomier every week. This global, financial and economic turmoil requires an adequate wealth preservation strategy, which is why we have been putting this SAW portfolio together in May 2015. SAW (Safe Asset & Wealth) Portfolio The Safe Asset and Wealth Protection (SAW) portfolio value is growing nicely: The total value is now 10,068 $, up +0.68% (and increasing further as we write this post as the S&P 500 is crashing further into the close – which is no surprise to us. Our portfolio performance of +0.68% is in stark contrast to ...
Bitcoin Face-Off Drags Prices Lower
(8/19/2015) - Originally published in The Bitcoin BullBear Report released on 8/19/2015.  Partial excerpt only. Written by @AKWAnalytics. The past 24 hours has been trying for the bitcoin community, to put it mildly. While Gavin and Mike attempt to usurp the bitcoin network via an XT hardfork, price is telling us that investors are not pleased with how things are progressing. Ultimately price is truth, and the investors will decide who “wins”. There is so much going on in the world that is creating uncertainty for global financial markets from China to Greece to Brazil, the last thing bitcoin needs is additional idiosyncratic risk ...
Global & Local Concerns Weigh on Bitcoin Prices
(8/14/2015) - Originally published in The Bitcoin BullBear Report released on 8/14/2015.  Partial excerpt only. Written by @AKWAnalytics. It should come as no surprise that over the past week bitcoin has returned to consolidation mode. While we are not expecting large moves in either direction in the near term, we do think a test of 250 $ is reasonable (and buyable). Before we get to the technicals, we want to talk a little bit about the global macro environment, as well as the block size debate. First, regarding the global macro picture as we see it, the outlook has never been so murky and ...
Safe Asset and Wealth Protection Portfolio Update – August 11, 2015
(8/11/2015) - Macro Commentary The baton of bearer of volatility has been passed from Greece to China over the past month as fears over economic growth, currency moves, and stock prices push investors to take risk off the table.  Not only is China a center of uncertainty, but the crash in commodities has spooked many economists as deflation fears mount. Oil has broken its 2015 low moving down to the $43 mark today, and Dr. copper continues to bleed down towards multi-year lows.  In our opinion this cannot bode well for the global growth picture, which is why we are putting this portfolio together. ...
Bitcoin Remains Range Bound as Block Size Debate Continues
(8/6/2015) - Originally published in The Bitcoin BullBear Report released on 8/6/2015.  Partial excerpt only. Written by @AKWAnalytics. While the price of bitcoin continues to chop around between 270 and 300 $, the block size debate rages on. Not only that, but certain parties are positing a removal of the 21 million coin hard cap, a proposition that stinks of redistribution (and desperation). First of all, any talk of turning bitcoin into an inflationary monetary system is unneccessary at best, and malicious at worst. There exist plenty of altcoins that have adpoted a similarly inflationary model to the one proposed, and if you don’t ...
BBA’s Market Insight for July 28, 2015
(7/28/2015) - Written by @AKWAnalytics INVESTORS EYE CHINA MARKETS LIKE A HAWK AS GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION FALLS SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS There is no doubt that the world is watching China with anxiety as government measures to stem the selling have gone largely ignored by the markets.  While they may have been successful in keeping losses smaller than they otherwise would have been, we think any attempts to reinflate the stock market will be abject failures.  Once short selling bans and direct asset purchases cease, the intense selling should return which will inject significant volatility into global markets already shakey from questionable economic growth. That said, ...
Bitcoin Bulls Remain in Control Despite Return to the Chopzone
(7/22/2015) - Originally published in The Bitcoin BullBear Report released on 7/22/2015.  Partial excerpt only. Written by @AKWAnalytics. Technically speaking, bitcoin has shown a surprising amount of strength and stability as it consolidates gains off of the 316 $ local high. Additionally, the fundamental picture has improved from just a few weeks ago. While we are still neutral for now, things are looking pretty good. The double bottom off of the 166.45 $ low (Finex) remains intact, and in fact is looking even more bullish as this current consolidation plays out. Throughout the recent rally from the low 200’s $, price has been following ...
BBA Bitcoin Correlation Report: July 2015
(7/16/2015) - Written by @AKWAnalytics Commentary: Bitcoin has been known as an “uncorrelated” asset due to its seemingly erratic price movements and unique financial properties, and now the tumult in Greece has pretty much completely decoupled the cryptocurrency from other major legacy markets altogether.  With that in mind, it continues to be a mystery what asset class, if any, is a decent proxy for the price of bitcoin over the long term.  You would think that, at the very least, the US dollar would be a decent guide for price, but as we will see below even this relationship is tenuous at best. What ...
BBA’s Market Insight for July 14, 2015
(7/14/2015) - Written by @AKWAnalytics GLOBAL MARKETS SEE RELIEF RALLY ON GREEK BAILOUT HOPES, BUT SUSTAINABILITY IS QUESTIONABLE. As investors await an outcome and hope for the best in Greece, global equity markets are bouncing within a range.  We can’t help but think that this will end up being a sellable rally given the uncertainty surrounding Europe, China, Puerto Rico, and US interest rates.  A flare up of any one of these macro risks could put a halt to the risk-on trade and send capital fleeing back to safe havens. Forex For the past few weeks we have been showing the EURUSD pair, which also ...
The Great Altcoin Washing Machine
(7/10/2015) - Written by @AKWAnalytics Commentary: While some newer crypto traders may be scratching their heads as to what the hell just happened in the altcoin markets over the past 24 hours (LTC, PPC, NMC), those of us that have been around for awhile have seen this movie before (particularly on BTC-e).  In fact, this type of action has been going on for as long as there has existed illiquid or easily manipulated financial assets or securities.  Penny stocks and very low rated junk bonds immediately come to mind, but even these are now more difficult to move at will by single parties, ...

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