Bitcoin Trading Update for June 4th, 2019 (BTC/USD)

Market Commentary

Complacence on the part of the bulls and impatience on the part of the bears led to a breakdown below 8000 $ yesterday which turned the shorter-term technicals decidedly bearish as we move into the summer months. No doubt that the bias is now to the downside, although we still think that the next few months will be mainly consolidative in nature but within a much wider range than previously anticipated. We are now leaning towards a range low in the [members-only content] $ region and a range high still around 9k $, but again over the short-term, it looks like that low will need to be established before the bulls will be willing to get active once again. 

12-Hour Chart

We'll zoom out to the 12-hour chart today for a broader view of the short-term setup where we can see that indeed the rising wedge was confirmed on the breakdown yesterday, a move that sparked [members-only content] signals and bearish candle formations that continue into today, and near-term market structure has been broken which portends lower prices moving forward. So do the EMA's which have reversed to the downside, the fact that the 50 SMA has been broken, the new dynamic resistance dots that are building at [members-only content] $, and the lack of historical support until the [members-only content]'s $, all confirming the now bearish bias. That said, 100 SMA is rising to meet the support confluence around [members-only content] $ consisting of the OTE long zone, the upper demand area, and the top of the still bullish Ichimoku Cloud, so we want to be buyers of the still intact ST ProTrade setup if given the chance over the coming days.

As far as momentum and volume are concerned, it's encouraging to see Willy, RSI, and the Stochastic all get close to oversold territory while PPO makes quick progress to the downside as well, all decent signs for the bulls overall, although MACD is accelerating lower which does not bode well for them over the near-term. The increase in sell volumes on the exchange, as well as the still suboptimal volume profile setup, also point to more weakness over the course of this week, however, a still-strong A/D line is confirming that [members-only content].  

3-Day Chart

Next, we'll take a look at the 3-day chart for an expanded view of the medium-term technicals where we can see that despite a large bearish candle formation in the making right now SCMR is still printing a [members-only content] signal on intact market structure which is good news for the bulls moving forward. The still-rising moving averages, the multiple levels of dynamic support below the market, and the increasingly bullish Ichimoku Cloud are also suggesting that the bulls are still in control longer-term, but short-term price action has turned bearish for the time being so we think [members-only content]. 

Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that RSI is the only oscillator that has come down out of overbought territory and MACD is making a beeline for its zero line right now, all suggesting more weakness over the coming days. The still suboptimal volume profile setup and the dwindling exchange volumes aren't helping matters for the bulls either, although the A/D line remains elevated and resilient for now which is another sign of [members-only content] as opposed to [members-only content].  

Market Summary

While it should be clear that we think the technicals are pointing to additional downside weakness over the short-term, meaning we will be staying out of the market until lower prices materialize, we also think that once a regional low is established then our forecast from yesterday for a reduction in volatility will come to fruition as consolidation takes hold between ~[members-only content] $.