Augur cryptocurrency: REP value & market analysis | Bullbear Analytics

Currency name(s):  Reputation (REP)
Genesis Block:  August 2015
Total Supply:  11 million REP, all are currently in circulation
Algorithm: the specific algorithm is not available, but the network is based on Ethereum architecture
Features:  decentralized, peer-to-peer, search engine
Website:  https://www.augur.net/

What is Augur?

The Augur network is a prediction system that operates on blockchain technology. The main idea behind this cryptocurrency is to use the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ to forecast the outcome of an event. The outcome of each event is limited to either ‘positive’ or ‘negative’ and the network users can vote for either option through the network. If the predicted outcome turns out to be ‘positive’, those who voted ‘positive’ are rewarded from the pool, and those who voted ‘negative’ are penalized. According to the development team, this method of operation encourages correct and factual reporting, and the predictions rely on a large group of people instead of a couple of experts.

Augur is created with a purpose to overcome the limitations regular prediction markets have, those being the inability to participate globally (as almost all regular prediction markets are location limited), centralization (usually one entity controls a prediction market), and finally the human factor (fraudulent behavior is reduced to a minimum).

This network has its own cryptocurrency which is called Reputation (shorthand is REP) and is used to wage predictions within the network. Anybody can access the network and see what predictions have been discussed, waged and confirmed, but just Reputation holders can actually vote for the outcome of a prediction. The outcome is voted for in the following way. A user creates a market, chooses a designated reporter and sets the no-show bond the market creator has to fund and is lost in case the designated reporter does not report on the outcome of the event. Once the market is created, users interested in the event can report on the outcome and participate in the resolution of the event. Those reporters who were correct will be rewarded Reputation tokens from the pool, and those who were not correct will lose their invested Reputation tokens. Of course, the system itself is a bit more complex than this, and we will go more in-depth about how it works in the next part of the analysis.

Technology

The Augur network is based on Ethereum code and is built upon that particular architecture. For this cryptocurrency network, it is important to confirm proof-of-work instead of proof-of-stake (as it is the case with other cryptocurrencies that we covered in the past, which are Theta and Tron, for example). As we mentioned previously, the Augur network’s native token is REP, which is used by market creators and reporters. All users who own REP, and participate in the accurate reporting of an event are entitled to a percentage of the fee the network charges for participating in the reporting. Ultimately, the more REP one reporter owns and is correct in their predictions, the more fees they will earn for using the platform for what it’s intended to be used. Here is the whole simplified process of how the Augur network operates:

As we mentioned above, any user can create a market for any upcoming event. They then set when the event ends, and choose a designated reporter to announce the outcome of the event, as well as resolution source which the reporter will use to resolve the outcome. After this phase, the trading on the outcome of the event starts, and all market participants can forecast the outcome of the event by trading shares of the outcome. There is no limit to how many tokens a user can trade in any event. Once the event occurs, the outcome is determined and a consensus is reached. Those users who were correct in their predictions will receive tokens from the pool, and the reporters who truthfully reported are rewarded by being given a portion of the fee. Finally, market settlement ensues, and those users who traded in the winning outcome can close their positions either by selling their shares to another trader in exchange for currency or by settling with the market.

The network system is created in such a way that any prediction can be resolved through smart contracts, and if it isn’t resolved in the usual way, there are protocols that push through the resolution. Also, a consensus must be reached and the settlement must be completed. All parts of the process are bootstrapped within the system so that the market creation has a closure.

Augur Markets

Our Augur network market analysis shows that Augur’s token, Reputation, currently sits at $10 per token. Since its launch in August 2015, this token has experienced price surges and decreases in value. Its all-time low was only $0.7 per token, while its all-time high was recorded at an amazing $123 per token. At the moment, the Augur network’s market cap is ~$110 million. At the moment, Augur token trading is possible on various cryptocurrency markets such as Binance, HitBTC, Bittrex, Poloniex, and Kraken. Investors can buy and sell Reputation for Bitcoin, Ether, as well as fiat currencies such as euro or dollar, depending on the market.

Even though the Augur network’s native token is seen as a type of altcoin by the community, it is essentially very different from Bitcoin and Ethereum which are trying to disrupt and decentralize financial services. The Augur network, on the other hand, is trying to revolutionize prediction markets and insert a new variable into the whole analysis of the events that occur. Certainly, it can be said to resemble the mechanisms that are used in the betting industry, but in its essence, it is trying to capture the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ and tap into the collective knowledge we as species may have.

Augur Charts & Technical Analysis

 

Since our previous successful trade we have started scaling back into REP. Having found support at the bottom of the OTE, there has been some good looking market structure on volume signifying that there is demand at these levels. OBV is strong confirming that there is accumulation, Willy is starting to move its way higher towards the mid-line and momentum is recharging. Currently the price is above the EMA/MA's where they are providing support. Risk on the trade is small allowing us plenty of room to scale in further on more bullish signals. 

Augur (REP) - Sell orders filled

  

Having stuck to our plan and scaled into this REP position against the lows, we have now started scaling out into strength at our predetermined double target levels. We remain long REP and wait for a better opportunity to buy back in or our next double target to hit in due course. 

The crypto space is growing large, and it is difficult to keep information about all the various networks/assets straight. We do our best, but information on this page has not been verified for accuracy, and is provided as-is, for your own consumption. If you find an error that needs correcting, please email us at support@bullbearanalytics.com.

Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor. Author owns and trades bitcoins and other financial markets mentioned in this communication. We never provide actual trading recommendations. Trading remains at your own risk. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment. Please read our full terms of service and disclaimer at the BullBear Analytics Legal.