Macro Commentary
It’s been awhile since we have updated our Safe Assets and Wealth Protection (SAW) Portfolio, but we are still tracking it. Given the recent global volatility in stocks, currencies, and commodities it is no surprise that our asset concentration in cash and gold, as well as a small S&P 500 short, are performing well. While we are now expecting countertrend moves over the next week or two, we will be fading these as we add to our current positions. At this point, the trend is our friend so we are not ready to call reversals just yet.
SAW (Safe Asset & Wealth) Portfolio
The Safe Asset and Wealth Protection (SAW) portfolio continues to outperform in the face of global macro uncertainty (which is the point of this whole exercise). The total value of the portfolio is now 10,354 $, up +3.54%, and we hope to improve this performance either further with a reentry into bitcoin. We will also be looking for a spot to add to our S&P 500 short if the bounce we are expecting can get back above 1900. We would also like to add gold below 1200 $.
Our portfolio performance of +3.54% is in diametric opposition to most mutual funds, hedge funds, ETF’s, and indices - most of which are down well over 10% just this year (2016)!
1. S&P 500 SHORT: We entered our SAW S&P 500 short position at 2,132.32 $ on May 22, 2015 fractions away from the top (the intraday top of the S&P 500 in the pre-market was 2,136.82 on May 19, 2015, then 2,133.66 $ on May 22 when we entered our short position, and exactly 2,132.82 $ in the cash market on July 20). As of yesterday’s market close, the S&P 500 was trading at 1829, down more than -14.22% from our short sale.
2. Our previous bitcoin long position was stopped out with profit of +8% late last year. We are ready to reenter the bitcoin market from the long side, preferably around the 375 $ level. We will update the portfolio once the purchase is made.
3. Our Gold position is turning around. We continue to hold the long gold position as overall structural hedge against global deflation. Seems to be working wonderfully so far given it is up over 15% this year alone!
Overall, we feel very well positioned to further increase our outperformance heading into Q2 2016.
Finally, we would like to remind you that we provide the most relevant and actionable forecasts and trading ideas for the bitcoin market, as well as some select altcoins. For those who are interested in bitcoin trading & analysis, we cover everything you need to answers those nagging questions like: “Which direction will the next bitcoin wave roll?”, or “Bitcoin UP or DOWN?”. We give detailed probabilities and insights on the direction of bitcoin prices.
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Have a great BITday!
@S3052 & @AKWAnalytics
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